The Political Hat

     Too many people think that “propaganda” is what bad guys do to lie, while the side they are on can’t engage in propaganda because they are telling the honest truth. But propaganda isn’t all about spreading lies, or even about spreading lies at all. It’s about intentional framing to get people to think the way you’d like them to think, and that can be done, and done best, with the truth, or at least truth enough.

     This old instructional film explains very well the techniques of propaganda. You’ll quickly notice how both sides this election have used them, and may even be able to recognize the specific techniques in specific ads and slogans.

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     It’s hard to compare 2020 with the current one because it occurred during the Covid lockdowns, and I am hesitant to draw comparisons between 2020 and 2024. 2022 used the same new way of voting as is being used now.   While the raw numbers are a poor comparison, the relative percentages can show, between the two parties, which is doing better and which is doing worse.

     With the first week of early voting over in Nevada, the GOP has a total voter lead of ca 6.2%.   In ’22 after the first week of early voting, the Democrats had a lead of ca 3.1%. All but two rural counties have turnout above ca 30% so far, with Nye County reporting ca 42% turnout! The in person early vote to mail ballot vote is close to 5:6.   Democrats still lead Clark County, but by only 5972 votes. The GOP has a lead in Washoe County by 4306. With the rurals being a GOP blowout, the Nevada GOP has a statewide lead of 29,142.

     The GOP’s lead with in person early voting is at ca 24.6% compared with ca 18.7% at this point two years ago. The Dems mail ballot lead (which includes ballots dropped off at early voting sites) is only ca 10.0%, down from ca 16.9% at this point two years ago. #NVpol

     Clearly, Nevada Republicans have gotten over their allergy to early voting. However, their in person and mail percentage of the total vote of ca 51.3% and ca 31.3%, respectively, is only a slight improvement over 2022 percentages of ca 50.3% and ca 29.9%, respectively.

     The dearth of Democratic turnout, especially in Clark County, combined with decent turnout for non-partisan and 3^rd Party voters is a bad sign for the once vaunted Harry Reid Machine. They need the numbers to massively improve during the rest of early voting and/or do ahistorically well on Election Day. There is no evidence to suggest that that is likely.

     The Democrats in Nevada should be hitting the panic button over their anemic turnout. Yes, the GOP’s election day turnout may end up smaller, but with the very early mail ballots being so low, they can’t count on the late arriving mail ballots to save even than. The Dems in Clark county may have been caught flatfooted, but they still have the resources to cajole plenty more ballots, if the voters are just reluctantly there. This can not be chalked up to just GOP transplants from California moving to Nevada.

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