Nevada Early Vote Update 2014 (Day 13 of 14)

     With one day left of early voting, Republicans have increased their lead every day of early voting so far, and currently stand at 18,542 out of 230,904 early votes, 3775 out of 34,154 returned absentee ballots, for a total of 22,297 out of 265,058 votes cast so far. 19% of registered voters have voted so far. The Republican voter lead of 8% is 13% above their statewide voter registration deficit of 5%.

     In Clark County, the Republicans lost in early voter turnout for the second day. If they loose for a third day in a row, the Republican tsunami might be blunted; but the Republicans retain a lead in early voting and returned absentees, and it is unlikely for the Democrats to reverse that in only one day of early voting. Election day tends to be better for Republicans than early voting, so it remains to be seen if that remains true, or if the Democrats are finally organizing and do much better on election day.

     Also of note, not only is the last day of early voting Halloween, it is also Nevada Day, which is a holiday in Nevada. The Republican’s early vote lead had dropped by over 100 votes from two days ago, from 2336 to 1255. However, the Republicans bounced back with absentee ballot returned, increasing from 255 to 299. This leaves the Republicans with a voter lead of 1554 with one day left of early voting. Their 1% lead is 14% over their registration deficit of 13%, which is in contrast to the 7% lead the Democrats had in 2010. Voter turnout is 66% of what it was in 2010.

     The Democrats regained the lead in early voters in the heavily Democrat Clark County portion of the 4th Congressional district… by 376 early voters. The Republicans still have a four digit lead in the rest of the district, leaving them with an overall lead in the 4th Congressional district. The Republicans also retained their leads in two of the three Commission Districts seats, F and G, up this November. Republicans also lead in three state Senate districts needed to retake the state Senate (SD08, SD09, SD20) by increasingly sizable margins.

     Republicans also continue to lead in a majority of Assembly districts. In Clark County the lead in seven districts that Democrats won in 2012, which would be enough to take over the Assembly outright. Additionally, Republicans have an early voter lead in AD12 a scant four votes, where there is no Republican candidate, but features the Democrat against an Independent American Party candidate. Republicans lost their early voter lead in AD08, where they now trail in early voters by thirty. However, these numbers do not include returned absentee ballots, which also tend to skew Republican.

     With Republican leading in votes in those eight Assembly districts that Democrats won in 2012, Democrats are behind in every single seat they won in Clark County with less than 60% of the vote. If we extrapolate this dividing line to the four Assembly seats in Washoe county held by Democrats, we find that three of the four Assembly seats in Washoe county that elected Democrats in 2012 were won less than 60% of the vote. Combined with the eight seats from Clark County, the Democrats could lose up to eleven seats to the Republicans, and perhaps even an additional seat to an Independent American Party candidate. Additionally, though the Democrats have an early voter lead in AD10, the Democrat has been ruled ineligible, and if the Republicans win the Assembly outright, they could choose to seat the Republican as the legitimate candidate with the most votes cast for them.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 5996 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 53,181 or 11%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 63.1% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 20.1%, and the rural counties with 16.8% of the vote.

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Happy 150th Birthday, Nevada!

     Today is Nevada Day, which celebrates Nevada’s “Battle Born” entry into the Union during the Civil War.  It is also the 150th anniversary of statehood.

     So, Happy Birthday Nevada!


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Happy Halloween! (2014)

     Der Golem, wie er in die Welt kam, the silent masterpiece.

     May it be less frightening than November will be for the forces of Progressivism.


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The Tarheel Hydra

     The AoSHQ Decision Desk has a post about how the Democrats are playing the long game in North Carolina, in an attempt to turn this state a deep Democrat blue.

“When the dust settles, Democrat forces will have spent upwards of $70 million in the North Carolina Senate race over the 2014 cycle. While perhaps an accurate reflection of the stakes, this outsized investment has little to do with the Senate, and even less to do with Kay Hagan. Instead it marks the opening salvo of 2016- a not so subtle attempt to break the back of the GOP before the election even begins.

“The calculation is not without merit. While Carolina is no longer a requisite pick-up for GOP Senate hopes in 2014, it is absolutely imperative for their electoral math in 2016 and beyond. Republicans already have their work cut out for them in flipping swing state behemoths like Ohio and Florida- losing 15 key Tarheel votes would make for a fundamentally untenable map, dipping the red state base below the electoral college Mendoza line, and driving a preemptive stake through the heart of GOP presidential fortunes. While a weary Carolinian electorate will likely respond to the late barrage with a shrug, the diminishing returns are a collateral cost of what would be a priceless psychological victory. Even in the likely event of a Republican Senate takeover, losses in North Carolina (and Kansas) would put a damper on an otherwise triumphant night, belie any consideration of a ‘wave,’ and allow Dems to credibly crow about winning the expectations game while pivoting to talk of 2016.

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Nevada Early Vote Update 2014 (Day 12 of 14)

     With only two day left of early voting, the Republicans continue to build an unprecedented early voter lead: Statewide, Republicans yet again increased their lead to 17,575 our of 205,153 early voters, 3538 out of 32,172 absentee ballots returned, for a total of 21,122 out of 237,325 votes cast so far. Only 18% of registered voters have voted so far. The Republican voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide voter registration deficit of 5%. The Republicans lead has increased every day of early voting so far.

     In Clark County, The Republicans early vote lead fell from 2336 to 1923, as did their advantage in absentee ballots returned, from 356 to 255. Democrats have led in Clark County only three of the first twelve days, or 1/4 of the time. With only two days left, the Republicans still have a voeter lead of 2178 in Clark County, and even if the Democrats win the last two days, they may not be able to overcome the lead that the Republicans have built up. Their 1% lead is 14% over their registration deficit of 13%, which is in contrast to the 7% lead the Democrats had in 2010. Voter turnout is 65% of what it was in 2010.

     Despite the Republican’s lead shrinking in Clark County, they continue to lead in Commission Districts F and G, the three state Senate districts needed to retake the state Senate (SD08, SD09, SD20), and in nine Assembly districts that the Democrats won in 2012. Additionally, Republicans still have a lead in the Clark County portion of the 4th Congressional District, and an over 2000 voter lead in the rural counties that make up the rest of the District.

     With Republican leading in votes in those nine Assembly districts that Democrats won in 2012, Democrats are behind in every single seat they won in Clark County 61% or less of the vote. If we extrapolate this dividing line to the four Assembly seats in Washoe county held by Democrats, we find that three of the four Assembly seats in Washoe county that elected Democrats in 2012 were won with 61% or less of the vote. Combined with the nine seats from Clark County, the Democrats could lose up to eleven seats to the Republicans, and perhaps even an additional seat to an Independent American Party candidate.

     It is possible for the Democrats to regain leads in many of these Assembly districts, but Republicans will likely win many of them. The question is “how many”? In two Assembly districts, AD10 and AD34, the Democrat candidates were ruled ineligible. The Republican have a voter lead in AD34, but are behind by 13% in AD10. Unless the Republicans win a clear majority in the Assembly, the Democrats might seat both of the ineligible Democrat candidates. The Republicans would need to win seven seats in total to win outright. If they only win six, the Assembly would be split 21-21, with the Democrat from AD10 (and potentially AD34) voting until and if the Assembly decides to not seat them. If the Republicans win five or less, then the Democrats will seat them as they did Andrew Martin, who was also ruled ineligible in 2012.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 5356 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 47,248 or 11%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 62.7% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 19.9%, and the rural counties with 17.3% of the vote.

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Yes Another Democrat Nevada Assembly Candidate Ruled Ineligible

     It is becoming a habit for Democrat nominees for the state Assembly to be declared ineligible.  Democrat Jesse Holder has been declared ineligible to run for the 10th Assembly seat.

“The decision came in response to a complaint filed by Republican candidate Shelly Shelton who accused Holder of not living in the district, which is located in the central part of the Las Vegas Valley.

“…

“It’s too late to make any changes to the ballot. Voters can only vote in a qualified candidate under the law. If an ineligible candidate were to receive the most votes, the Democrat-controlled Assembly would pick someone to fill the seat, which could be the top vote-getter or someone else.”

     Funny how Democrats like Secretary of State, and zombie rights activist, Ross Miller don’t seem very interested in upholding elections laws:

“The complaint names Secretary of State Ross Miller as a defendant along with several county Elections Department officials, including Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria.”

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Nevada Early Vote Update 2014 (Day 11 of 14)

     After over 3/4 of early voting completed, The Republican wave continues to grow into a tsunami: Statewide, Republicans increased their voter lead to 16,451 out of 181,673 early voters, 3242 out of 28,668 absentee ballots returned, for a total of 19,683 out of 210,3431 votes cast so far. About 18% of registered voters have voted so far. The voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide registration deficit. The Republicans early voter lead has increased for the 10th straight day.

     Democrats rely on an early voter advantage to offset the relative Republican advantage on election day. With their being nearly 20,000 votes underwater so far, the only hope the Democrats have is to dominate the last few days of early voting and turnout with a historically unprecedented lead on Election day. So far, the Democrats have not demonstrated the ability to turnout Democrats.

     In Clark County, Republicans have yet again increased their early voter lead to 2336 out of 115,400 early votes. Returned absentee ballots increase that lead further by 356 out of 16,496, resulting in the republicans having an overall voter lead of 2692 out of 131,896 votes cast so far. This represents a 2% lead, which is 15% over their voter registration deficit of 13%, which is in contrast to the 7% lead the Democrats had in 2010. Voter turnout is 65% of what it was in 2010.

     This lead in Clark County for Republicans is having ramifications from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Republicans now have 4-digit leads in both Commission districts F and G, while the Democrats only lead in the heavily Democrat district E. With the Republicans ever-increasing countywide lead, they will likely pick-up some countywide executive offices. In both cases, the Democrats monopoly will be broken.

     In the 4th Congressional District, the Republicans now have an outright lead in Clark County of 189. While this may not seem like much, one quarter of the district is in the rural counties (which is comprised of part of Lyon county and all of White Pine, Nye, Esmeralda, Mineral and Lincoln counties) that vote very heavily for Republicans. Overall, the Republicans have a four digit lead in early voting districtwide. Rep. Steven Horsford should start looking for a new job.

     Republicans continue to dominate state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) they need to pick-up the state Senate, with double digit percent leads in SD8 and SD20. Additionally, in SD21, the Republicans reduced the Democrats lead in SD21 to 443 with 1132 votes cast by non-partisans, Libertarians, and Independent American Party voters. At this point, the state Senate seems lost, particularly when the Democrats need to use all their resources to save Ross Miller, who is running for Attorney General, and surprisingly their Assembly majority.

     Republicans lead with early voters in eight Assembly districts Clark County that Democrats won in 2012; this lead extends to nine seats when returned absentee ballots are included. In AD12, Republicans lead despite there being no Republican on the ballot, with the Democrat facing off against an Independent American Party candidate. All other of the nine seats feature a straight Republican vs. Democrat contest except for AD21, where there is also a Libertarian Party candidate.

     With Republican regaining the lead in votes cast (both early voting and returned absentee ballots) in AD08 and AD12, Democrats are behind in every single seat they won in Clark County 61% or less of the vote. If we extrapolate this dividing line to the four Assembly seats in Washoe county held by Democrats, we find that three of the four Assembly seats in Washoe county that elected Democrats in 2012 were won with 61% or less of the vote. Combined with the nine seats from Clark County, the Democrats could lose up to eleven seats to the Republicans, and perhaps even an additional seat to an Independent American Party candidate. It also goes to show that the Republicans should always field candidates, even for offices that may at the time seem like a lost cause.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 4834 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 41,952 or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 62.7% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 19.9%, and the rural counties with 17.3% of the vote.

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Doctor Coburn’s Final Wastebook

     With Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) resigning at the end of the year, his newly released 2014 Wastebook will be the final one from his Senatorial office.

     Yet again, it logs the waste of billions of dollars, and can be obtained here, or viewed below:

Wastebook 2014 (Print)



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Nevada Early Vote Update (Day 10 of 14)

     With over 2/3 of the early voting days over, the unprecidented Republican was continues to grow. After the tenth day of early voting, Republicans increased their lead 14,186 out of 159,482 early voters, 2980 out of 26,908 returned absentee ballots, for a total of 17,166 out of 186,390 votes cast. The voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide registration deficit. The Republicans early voter lead has increased for the 9th straight day.

     For Democrats to win, they have to build a huge voter lead in Clark County to offset the Republican rural counties, and win Washoe county. With the rural counties voting at a much higher rate than Clark, combined with the Republicans’ heavy lead in Washoe, the Democrats voter deficit in Clark County is a grim sign for them

     In Clark County, Republicans have had one of their best days yet, with the increase of their early voter lead to 1769 out of 101,810 early votes. Returned absentee ballots increase their lead by an additional 325 voters out of 16,126, resulting in the Republicans having an overall voter lead of 2,094 out of 115,938 votes cast so far. This 1% lead for Republicans is 14% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, the Democrats led in early voting by 8%. Voter turnout is 65% of what it was in 2010.

     Republicans continue to increase their leads in Clark County Commission districts F and G. A Republican win in either seat would give the Republicans their first seat on the Clark County Commission in six year, which currently has all seven seats held by Democrats. Only in district E, are the Democrats ahead. Combined with the countywide voter lead, many of the countywide executive offices will likely flip to Republican control.

     The 4th Congressional District is looking to be a take-over by Republicans at this point, with Republicans winning early voters over the past two days in the Democrat heavy Clark County portion of the district. Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford is ahead in the Clark County portion of the 4th by only 86 votes! It is not unconceivable that he could be behind after early voting ends in Clark County. Without that edge, the heavily Republican rural parts of the district (which is comprised of part of Lyon county and all of White Pine, Nye, Esmeralda, Mineral and Lincoln counties) will not only Horsford to lose, but lose in a landslide.

     The Republicans’ lead has shrunk slightly in the key state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) they need to pick-up the state Senate, though they retain a sizable lead in SD8 and SD20, and a smaller one in SD9. Additionally, in SD21, the Democrats are ahead by only 446 early voters, with 1052 votes cast by non-partisans, Libertarians, and Independent American Party voters.

     The Republicans lead in seven Assembly districts that Democrats won in 2012 in Clark County. This would be enough to flip control of the Assembly to the Republicans. The Republicans lost their early voter edge in AD12 by 9 voters, where there is no Republican on the ballot (the Democrat is up against an Independent American Party candidate). Republicans increased their lead in AD05, AD21, AD29, AD34, AD35, and AD41. Republicans lost ground in AD09, but maintain a slim lead.

     Democrats lead in no Clark County Assembly districts where the Democrats did not win at least 60% of the vote (59.51% in AD12). The seat with the next lowest Democrat percentage of the vote was AD34 where the Democrat won 57.26% of the vote in 2012 with a margin of over 3000 votes, but where they are behind in early voting by 226 early voters. If we extrapolate this dividing line to the four Assembly seats in Washoe county held by Democrats, we find that two of the seats are below the 57.26% level: AD30 and AD31 which went for the Democrats in 2012 with 57.0% and 52% of the vote. Additionally, AD27 went for the Democrats in 2012 with 57.8% of the vote, which is above the 57.26% for AD34 but below the 59.51% in AD12. So, in addition to the seven Clark County Assembly districts with the Republican early voter lead, two to three Assembly districts in Washoe county may flip as well, giving the Republicans 24 or 25 of the Assembly seats compared to 18 or 17 seats for the Democrats.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 4215 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 36,334, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 63.3% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 19.5%, and the rural counties with 17.2% of the vote.

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Black n’ Bundy

     Cliven Bundy, whose stand-off with the Federal government ended peacefully, was unfairly criticized for allegedly saying racist speech.  So what dastardly thought crime has he expressed now?  Simply, endorsing a Black man for Congress.

     Kamau Bakari, a member of the conservative Independent American Party, is running for Congress in Nevada’s heavily Democrat 1st Congressional district, and has now been endorsed by fellow Independent American Party member Cliven Bundy.

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