Words To Remember When Voting

     Over a decade ago, I was talking with a scientist who had immigrated from Bulgaria, had lived under Communism, and had become an American citizen. The words she spoke to me still gives me a chill of terror:

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2026 Election Predictions (Give Or Take Some Hedging)

     Four years ago, there was a lot of hype for sweeping Republican victories in the midterm… that didn’t pan out. In fact it was not a good year for Republicans, who flipped only on Governor’s seat, lost a U.S. Senate seat, and narrowly won the House with a handful of flips in large part due to redistricting.

     There is good reason to be wary of the hype for Democrats this midterm.   Much like how huge Republican gains in Virginia and New Jersey in 2011 failed to pan out, the huge Democratic gains in those same two states could fail to pan out as well. This isn’t to say that we should assume an equal an opposite outcome, though. In ‘22, a Democrat was President with high inflation and recent Covid lockdowns, yet they still did well. While many Republicans will be able to escape the high negatives of the Presidential incumbent, Trump casts a darker shadow than Biden did. Aside from the ‘25 Virginia and New Jersey general elections, we’ve seen Democrats with great turnout in both major primaries and special elections, usually doing far better than even the Democratic favorable polls indicated. While often in the past, polls have underestimated Republicans, that hasn’t been the case with polling since November 2024.

     Trump has repeated the same mistake that Biden made when he was running for reelection: He tried to convince people that things were going great when people though it wasn’t. They felt lied to, and unlike with Biden, Trumps’ problems were far more clearly of his own doing. Still, Republicans benefit by the inability of many Democrats to simply act normal.   All in all, there’s a lot of close races that still can as of writing go the other way from what your humble author is predicting. Much of the question then comes down to turn out, especially election day, and just how the independents (non-partisan and registered 3rd party) voters split.

     So, on to the predictions!

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News of the Week (November 1st, 2026)

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Early Voting in Nevada 2026 (End Of In-Person Early Voting)

     Since the election changes brought in the wake of the Covid lockdowns, there are only two general elections in Nevada, and only one undertaken during a midterm. While comparisons can be made, the numbers from 2022 are not, so far, reflective of trends in 2026.

     Let us look at where things stand after the end of in-person early voting in Nevada. While in-person early voting now completed, mail ballots are still coming in, and will into next week.

     N.B. The numbers are accurate as of time of retrieval, which will vary throughout the day.

Statewide

     Nevada’s early votes are split between in-person early voting and mail ballots. As of the time of writing, The Republicans have an in-person early voter lead of ca 8K voters; this number will not grow since in-person early voting has ended. In contrast, the Democrats have a mail ballot lead of over 50K, which will only grow significantly as the late arriving ballots arrive today (Saturday before the election) and through Tuesday for all mail ballots, and through most of the rest of the week for mail ballots not found to have been cast after the end of the election. Over all, the Democrats have at present a voter lead of over 40K. While we don’t know how many more mail ballots will be coming, but Democrats netting >10K is quite likely.

     To compare with the 2022 General Election, the Republicans had, for in-person early voting, a 50K early voter lead compared to the 8K they have now. The Democrats had an overall mail ballot lead, including ballots received after the end of in-person early voting, of ca 70K in 2022. As of now, the Democrats have a ca 50K lead in mail ballots that will grow. Of note, mail ballots can also be returned at a limited number of dropboxes as well as at early voting and election day polling locations. Overall, the Democrats twice the raw voter lead now than they had from the total combined in-person early voting and mail voting.

     Of note, non-partisan and 3rd party voters in Clark County have cast more mail ballot than Republicans by ca 15K ballot! Including in-person voting, Republicans are only ahead of those “other” voters by ca 8K. This makes those 3rd party and and non-partisan voters critically important, and a noticeable Democrat lean in those voters will spell doom for the Republicans in Nevada, especially down ballot.

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Happy Halloween! (2026)

     Here are dueling Pumpkin songs by Neuro-sama and Evil Neuro-sama.

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Firing Line Friday: Have We Learned Anything about the Good Society?

     In the hopes of encouraging a more civil, and illuminating, discourse, here is another episode of William F. Buckley, Jr.’s “Firing Line”.

     With the “Common Good” being increasingly discussed, let us look back thirty years when William F. Buckley, Jr. and John Kenneth Galbraith asked if we have learned anything about the Good Society?

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Quick Takes – Who’s Being Euthanized Now? Autistic Teens; Toddlers; Preventable Suicides

     Another “quick takes” on items where there is too little to say to make a complete article, but is still important enough to comment on.

     The focus this time: Is there anyone they won’t kill?

     First, a little mood music:

     Carrying on…

     Meanwhile, in the Netherlands…

“Four-and-a-half years after he was diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder, a Dutch teen was euthanized at his request.

“The boy, aged between 16 and 18, had described his life as ‘joyless.’ He’d struggled with anxiety and mood-related problems, and where he fit in, in the world. Oversensitive to stimuli, ‘every day was an ordeal he had to get through,’ according to the latest annual report from the Netherlands’ regional euthanasia death review committees. ‘In the final weeks before his death, he lay in bed the whole time.’”

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Communist Fairy Tale

     Is there anymore fanciful fantasy than Communism?

     “Yuri Brzmenov’s Ghost” tells the tall tale (quote in full below due to the limitations of Twitter’s/X’s embed).

Heres the left fairy tale. Once upon a time, there was primitive communism, an immediate, low communal unity. Common life has not yet fractured into antagonistic classes. People were just vibing, maaan.

Then the common world starts to break apart. Shared resources become property. Authority becomes hierarchy. Social differences harden into class. The deeper rupture comes when powers once embedded in common life separate from it and confront the people who sustain them as independent forces.

That’s alienation. Human beings sustain social powers through their own activity, but those powers separate from the people and relationships that sustain them and come back as something external they have to answer to. Think of your dream job becoming a grinding job. Your own work comes back at you as schedules, hierarchy, metrics, and rules you have to obey. Alienation is the separation of human social power from the people whose activity sustains it.

Reification goes a step further. It encases that separated human social power in a thing-like form. The living human activity and relationships remain underneath, but the form hides them and appears to have a life and authority of its own. The job becomes “the position.” Cooperation appears as a power of “the company.” Hiring and wages appear as “the labor market.”

Alienation separates the power. Reification gives that separated power a thing-like shell that hides the human activity inside it. The shell then appears independent and self-standing, as though the power belonged to the form itself. Workers cooperate, but the company appears to possess the productive power. People exchange goods, but “the market” appears to set prices. People make and enforce rules, but “the institution” appears to command.

So, in the left frame, you live inside the inversion and mistake it for reality itself.

The inversion lies in where the power appears to reside. Human beings sustain social life, but the powers generated through their activity appear to belong to the forms organizing it. Capital “creates jobs.” Markets “demand” cuts. The economy “needs” growth. The social form becomes the apparent actor while the human activity sustaining it fades from view.

The forms themselves are real. The company, market, wage relation, and institution actually exist. Human capacities organized through these forms come to look like powers inherent in the forms themselves. Marx repeatedly describes labor’s own powers confronting labor as powers of capital. Lukács calls this apparent independence “phantom objectivity.”

Taken together, these hardened forms make up “the system.” Nobody has to design it. Property relations, markets, laws, institutions, bureaucracies, and habits accumulate historically, and each generation inherits them as the world already in place. People reproduce them simply by acting inside them: workers sell labor, firms compete, owners invest, bureaucrats apply rules, consumers buy and sell. The result here is a social order sustained by human activity that confronts people as an external power, organizing their capacities and then appearing to be the source of those capacities itself.

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Fight Of The Century

     The question of the roll of the government in managing the economy is as hot a topic now as it has been through our history.

     Here is the “second round” of the debate between John Maynard Keynes and F. A. Hayek… also in rap format!

     Words to ponder as the November election draws near.


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News of the Week (October 25th, 2026)

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