The Political Hat

     Over a decade ago, I was talking with a scientist who had immigrated from Bulgaria, had lived under Communism, and had become an American citizen. The words she spoke to me still gives me a chill of terror:

Continue reading →

     Since the election changes brought in the wake of the Covid lockdowns, there are only two general elections in Nevada, and only one undertaken during a midterm. While comparisons can be made, the numbers from 2022 are not, so far, reflective of trends in 2026.

     Let us look at where things stand after the end of in-person early voting in Nevada. While in-person early voting now completed, mail ballots are still coming in, and will into next week.

     N.B. The numbers are accurate as of time of retrieval, which will vary throughout the day.

Statewide

     Nevada’s early votes are split between in-person early voting and mail ballots. As of the time of writing, The Republicans have an in-person early voter lead of ca 8K voters; this number will not grow since in-person early voting has ended. In contrast, the Democrats have a mail ballot lead of over 50K, which will only grow significantly as the late arriving ballots arrive today (Saturday before the election) and through Tuesday for all mail ballots, and through most of the rest of the week for mail ballots not found to have been cast after the end of the election. Over all, the Democrats have at present a voter lead of over 40K. While we don’t know how many more mail ballots will be coming, but Democrats netting >10K is quite likely.

     To compare with the 2022 General Election, the Republicans had, for in-person early voting, a 50K early voter lead compared to the 8K they have now. The Democrats had an overall mail ballot lead, including ballots received after the end of in-person early voting, of ca 70K in 2022. As of now, the Democrats have a ca 50K lead in mail ballots that will grow. Of note, mail ballots can also be returned at a limited number of dropboxes as well as at early voting and election day polling locations. Overall, the Democrats twice the raw voter lead now than they had from the total combined in-person early voting and mail voting.

     Of note, non-partisan and 3^rd party voters in Clark County have cast more mail ballot than Republicans by ca 15K ballot! Including in-person voting, Republicans are only ahead of those “other” voters by ca 8K. This makes those 3^rd party and and non-partisan voters critically important, and a noticeable Democrat lean in those voters will spell doom for the Republicans in Nevada, especially down ballot.

Continue reading →