With over two-thirds of early voting over, and ca 50% of the total vote: Democrats maintain a voter lead of over 30,000, for a voter lead of 6%, which is at the Democrats active voter edge, comparable to 2012 at this point. The Democrats have actually 3500 less voters than they did in 2012. However, this relative reduction in voter turnout is due entirely to the rural counties turning out with 30% more voters relative to 2012.
The Democrat voter edge in Clark County remains just over 14% (nearly 48,000 votes), which is at their active voter registration lead, and comparable to the Democrats’ lead in 2012 in raw voter numbers. The Democrat voter edge in Washoe County is 3% (with voter lead steady at about 2500 votes), which is still 4% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½%, which is 1400 more the Democrats had in Washoe county at this point, relative to 2012.
U.S. Senate & Congress
In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley, and a smaller voter lead for Democrats will help Joe Heck. The 3500 decrease in early voters at this point relative to the 10th day of voting in 2012 is a good sign for Joe Heck. While Joe Heck has a much better ground game and campaign than Heller did four years ago, Heller didn’t have to contend with the Trump effect, or with the campaign of Cortez Masto. The question is, if Hecks superior ground game in addition to the decrease (so far) of the Democrats early voter lead vis-à-vis this point in 2012 will be enough to overcome Cortez Masto’s not being Shelley Berkeley in addition to the Trump effect.
The overall voter registration lead the Democrats have is slightly less than what they had in 2012. However, the Republicans gains were almost all in the rural counties, which they were already going to win handily; the Democrats voter registration increase was all in Clark County, where nine of the ten Assembly districts, two of the three swing state Senate districts, all of the 3rd Congressional District, and most of the 4th Congressional District all lie.
Both the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts find the Republicans trailing badly, with the Democrats building up an even greater firewall, which is especially worrying since the early and absentee vote will likely about 2/3 of the total vote. Republicans are behind by almost 7200 votes in the 3rd Congressional District, while better than the previous day, is still massive, especially since about half the total vote is likely in. Republicans will need a combination of winning the rest of the week in early voting, win by massive margins in late-arriving absentee ballots, a heavily Republican election day electorate, and a heavy share of the non-partisan voters. We’ll know if they have achieved two of these four necessities before election day.
In the 4th Congressional District, the Democrats have an overall lead of nearly 16,000 voters, even when including the less populous rural districts that have reported. The 4th should be considered a write-off for the Republicans at this point. This will be the first time that Clark County will not have a single Republican Representative in the House since Nevada had a single district back in the 1980 election.
State Senate & Assembly
With the Republicans having a slip 11-10 lead in the Nevada state Senate, the tipping point of control for the next four years will be SD6, which the Republicans were able to pick up in 2012. Republican nominee Gloria Seaman is still behind by over 2000 votes, which is a slight improvement from the previous day for Democrats. The Democrats also have voter lead in SD5 of over 2300. Republicans, furthermore, fell even farther behind in SD15, located in Washoe, by 1300 votes. Washoe, despite having a greater Republican plurality of Republicans than in 2012, has a larger Democratic early and absentee voter lead in 2016 than they did in 2012 at this point; this disparity will likely result in the Republicans not only losing their state Senate majority, but being relegated to single digits in Senators… until 2020 at least (baring a death or resignation of a Democratic state Senator before the 2018 election in SD5, SD6, or SD15.
The Assembly is continuing to looking to be an absolute disaster for the Republicans.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2012:
|Early Vote + Absentee||36.9%||42.9%||20.2%|
|Early Vote 2012||36.5%||45.2%||18.3%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||37.5%||44.6%||17.9%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.4%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||37.0%||43.8%||17.7%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||32.9%||46.5%||20.7%|
|Early Vote 2012||32.8%||48.6%||18.6%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||33.7%||48.1%||18.2%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||33.1%||47.6%||19.3%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||39.2%||41.6%||19.2%|
|Early Vote 2012||40.2%||42.3%||17.5%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||40.8%||41.8%||17.5%|
|Total Early Vote 2012||40.5%||40.0%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||40.5%||39.9%||19.6%|
3rd Congressional District
|Actual Election Results||50.4%||42.9%||6.8%|
4th Congressional District (excepting part of Lyon County)*
|Actual Election Results||42.1%||50.1%||7.8%|
5th state Senate District
|Actual Election Results||48.0%||52.0%||N/A|
6th state Senate District
|Actual Election Results||50.8%||49.2%||N/A|
With over two-thirds of the early voting over, it continues to look like 2016 will be a worse year than 2012. The Republicans are set to lose two of Nevada’s four Congressional districts, the Assembly, the state Senate for at least four years, and potentially give Cortez Masto a life-time appointment to the U.S. Senate while concomitantly enshrining her as the new Democratic king-maker in Nevada.
To whit: Republicans should be hitting the panic button like a crack monkey putting down the crack pipe.
* Lyon County is split between the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, and early vote broken down by CD was not immediately available; in 2012, Lyon county gave 3012 votes to the Republican, 1002 to the Democrat, and 280 votes to two 3rd Party candidates.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…