The first week of early voting have finished and the Blue Wave holds steady: Democrats have built up a voter edge of nearly 34,000, for a voter lead of 7½%, which is 1½% above the Democrats active voter edge, comparable to 2012 at this point. The Demcrats have actually 1500 less voters than they did in 2012, abet by only about 1500 votes.
The Democrat voter edge in Clark County remains just under 15% (nearly 47,000 votes), which is 1% above their active voter registration lead, and comparable to the Democrats’ lead in 2012 in raw voter numbers. The Democrat voter edge in Washoe County is 3% (with voter lead steady at about 2500 votes), which is still 4½% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½%, which is much more than the 1300 voter lead the Democrats had in Washoe county at this point. The over 15,000 lead the Republicans have in rural counties help balance the leads the Democrats have in Clark County and Washoe County.
U.S. Senate & Congress
In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley, and a smaller voter lead for Democrats will help Joe Heck. While Joe Heck has a much better ground game and campaign than Heller did four years ago, Heller didn’t have to contend with the Trump effect, or with the campaign of Cortez Masto. While in almost any other year, Cortez Masto would be running a loosing campaign against Heck, the similar Democrat lead to 2012, despite a double-digit increase in active registered voters, is a good sign for Joe Heck. If the Republicans can keep the Democrats’ early and absentee voter edge to less than what they had in 2012, Heck has a chance—assuming that the Trump effect doesn’t hurt him too much.
Both the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts find the Republicans trailing badly, with the Democrats building up an even greater firewall, which is especially worrying since the early and absentee vote will likely about 2/3 of the total vote. Republicans are behind by almost 8000 votes in the 3rd Congressional District. In the 4th Congressional District, the Democrats have an overall lead of nearly 16,000 voters, even when including the less populous rural districts that have reported. The 4th should be considered a write-off for the Republicans at this point. This will be the first time that Clark County will not have a single Republican Representative in the House since Nevada had a single district back in the 1980 election.
State Senate & Assembly
With the Republicans having a slip 11-10 lead in the Nevada state Senate, the tipping point of control for the next four years will be SD6, which the Republicans were able to pick up in 2012. Republican nominee Gloria Seaman is still behind by nearly 2000 votes, which is a slight improvement from the previous day for Democrats, though Republicans will have to cut this down even more if they are to have a chance. The Democrats also have voter lead in SD5 of over 2300; which is a slight improvement for the Democrats since the previous day. Republicans, furthermore, fell even farther behind in SD15.
The Assembly is continuing to looking to be an absolute disaster for the Republicans.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2012:
|Early Vote + Absentee||36.3%||43.7%||20.00%|
|Early Vote 2012||36.1%||45.8%||18.1%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||37.0%||45.2%||17.8%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.4%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||37.0%||43.8%||17.7%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||32.4%||47.1%||20.3%|
|Early Vote 2012||32.2%||49.4%||18.5%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||33.2%||48.7%||18.1%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||33.1%||47.6%||19.3%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||39.0%||42.0%||19.0%|
|Early Vote 2012||40.1%||42.6%||17.3%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||40.5%||43.3%||17.2%|
|Total Early Vote 2012||40.5%||40.0%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||40.5%||39.9%||19.6%|
3rd Congressional District
|Actual Election Results||50.4%||42.9%||6.8%|
4th Congressional District (excepting part of Lyon County)**
|Actual Election Results||42.1%||50.1%||7.8%|
5th state Senate District
|Actual Election Results||48.0%||52.0%||N/A|
6th state Senate District
|Actual Election Results||50.8%||49.2%||N/A|
With over two-thirds of the early voting over, it continues to look like 2016 will be a worse year than 2012, and potentially worse than 2008. The biggest difference will be the loss of one and maybe two state Senate seats that they won, though barely, in 2012, as well as the loss of the 3rd Congressional District due to having perpetual loser Danny Tarkanian instead of Joe Heck. The 4th Congressional District is likely lost, and the 3rd Congressional District is quickly following suite. The 6th state Senate District (and thus the state Senate) may be lost for the GOP, who may loose yet another seat. The Trump factor might sink the Republican’s hope of picking up a U.S. Senate seat they desperately need to offset losses elsewhere. The Assembly is looking to be a total disaster for Republicans
To whit: Republicans should be hitting the panic button like a crack monkey.
* As of posting, the following counties haven’t sent in numbers: Lander and Lyon since Wednesday; Elko since Friday.
** Lyon County is split between the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, and early vote broken down by CD was not immediately available; in 2012, Lyon county gave 3012 votes to the Republican, 1002 to the Democrat, and 280 votes to two 3rd Party candidates.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…