The first three days of early voting have finished and the beginnings of a Blue Wave are quickly building: Democrats have built up a voter edge of over 21,000, for a voter lead of 15%, which is 9% above the Democrats active voter edge. This is over 5000 more than Democrats had in 2012 at this point. The Democrat voter edge in Clark County is almost 20%, which is 6% above their active voter registration lead; The Democrat voter edge in Washoe County is 9%, which is over 10% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½% The Democrats even have a voter lead in Mineral County, which rarely goes Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state.
U.S. Senate, Congress, and State Senate
In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley. While Joe Heck has a much better ground game and campaign than Heller did four years ago, Heller didn’t have to contend with the Trump effect, or with the campaign of Cortez Masto. While in almost any other year, Cortez Masto would be running a loosing campaign against Heck, the 5000 increase in Democratic voter lead after only the first two days out of fourteen is about 40% of what would be necessary to overcome Berkeley’s deficit, assuming the non-partisan and 3rd Party voters vote similarly to what they did in 2012.
Both the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts find the Republicans trailing badly. Interestingly enough, incumbent Republican Rep. Hardy in the 4th Congressional District isn’t doing as bas as Republican and perpetual loser Danny Tarkanian is in the 3rd Congressional District. This will be the first time that Clark County will not have a single Republican Representative in the House since Nevada had a single district back in the 1980 election.
With the Republicans having a slip 11-10 lead in the Nevada state Senate, the tipping point of control for the next four years will be SD6, which the Republicans were able to pick up in 2012. Republican nominee Gloria Seaman falls further behind by over 1700 votes, which is more than all of the non-partisan and 3rd party voters combined. Furthermore, Republicans are behind in SD5, which is held by a Democrat, and the only swing seat in the state Senate held by a Democrat. To make matters worse for the Republicans, they are behind in SD15 up in Washoe. A loss there would result in a Democratic majority of 12-9 for the next two year, and a potentially higher lead in 2018 if they pick up any of the three swing seats, all held by Republicans.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2012:
|Early Vote + Absentee||34.5%||46.7%||18.7%|
|Early Vote 2012||35.4%||48.2%||16.4%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||36.9%||46.8%||16.3%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.4%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||37.0%||43.8%||17.7%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||30.7%||50.2%||19.0%|
|Early Vote 2012||31.2%||51.7%||17.1%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||33.0%||50.5%||16.5%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||33.1%||47.6%||19.3%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||36.5%||45.6%||17.9%|
|Early Vote 2012||37.6%||45.7%||15.2%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||39.9%||44.5%||15.6%|
|Total Early Vote 2012||40.5%||40.0%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||40.5%||39.9%||19.6%|
3rd Congressional District
|Actual Election Results||50.4%||42.9%||6.8%|
4th Congressional District (excepting part of Lyon County)*
|Actual Election Results||42.1%||50.1%||7.8%|
6th state Senate District
|Actual Election Results||50.8%||49.2%||N/A|
After the first three days out of fourteen of early voting, it is looking like 2016 will be in be worse than 2012 but potentially not as bad as 2016 in outcome. The margin will shrink this coming week, but it is unlikely it’ll shift as dramatically as the Republicans need. The 4th Congressional District is likely lost, and the 3rd Congressional District is quickly following suite. The 6th state Senate District (and thus the state Senate) may be lost for the GOP, who may loose yet another seat. The Trump factor might sink the Republican’s hope of picking up a U.S. Senate seat they desperately need to offset losses elsewhere.
* Lyon County is split between the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, and early vote broken down by CD was not immediately available; in 2012, Lyon county gave 3012 votes to the Republican, 1002 to the Democrat, and 280 votes to two 3rd Party candidates.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”