Nevada Early Vote (Day 2 of 14)

     The first two days of early voting have finished and the beginnings of a Blue Wave are quickly building: Democrats have built up a voter edge of 18,000, for a voter lead of 21%, which is 7% above the Democrats active voter edge. This is 4000 more than Democrats had in 2012 at this point. The rural counties did not have early voting on Sunday (only Clark County and Washoe County), but these won’t come close to overcoming the leads the Democrats are building up in Clark and Washoe. The Democrats even have a voter lead in Mineral County, which rarely goes Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state.


U.S. Senate, Congress, and State Senate

     In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley. While Joe Heck has a much better ground game and campaign than Heller did four years ago, Heller didn’t have to contend with the Trump effect, or with the campaign of Cortez Masto. While in almost any other year, Cortez Masto would be running a loosing campaign against Heck, the 4000 increase in Democratic voter lead after only the first two days out of fourteen is about 40% of what would be necessary to overcome Berkeley’s deficit, assuming the non-partisan and 3rd Party voters vote similarly to what they did in 2012.

     At least Heck will have the experience to run for U.S. Senate or Governor in 2018, assuming he can at least keep it close.

     Both the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts find the Republicans trailing badly. This will be the first time that Clark County will not have a single Republican Representative in the House since Nevada had a single district back in the 1980 election.

     With the Republicans having a slip 11-10 lead in the Nevada state Senate, the tipping point of control for the next four years will be SD6, which the Republicans were able to pick up in 2012. Republican nominee Gloria Seaman falls further behind by over 1300 votes, which is more than all of the non-partisan and 3rd party voters combined.

     Here are the percentages and comparison with 2012:

Nevada (statewide)

  GOP Dem Other
Early Vote 30.5% 51.3% 18.2%
Early Vote + Absentee 33.2% 48.3% 18.5%
Early Vote 2012 34.1% 49.9% 16.1%
Early + Absentee 2012 35.8% 48.3% 15.9%
Total Early 2012 36.1% 44.5% 19.4%
Total Early + Absentee 2012 37.0% 43.8% 17.7%

Clark County

  GOP Dem Other
Early Vote 28.2% 53.5% 18.3%
Early Vote + Absentee 29.6% 51.7% 18.6%
Early Vote 2012 30.7% 52.9% 16.4%
Early + Absentee 2012 32.6% 51.2% 16.1%
Total Early 2012 32.2% 48.2% 19.5%
Total Early + Absentee 2012 33.1% 47.6% 19.3%

Washoe County

  GOP Dem Other
Early Vote 32.5% 50.3% 17.2%
Early Vote + Absentee 36.1% 46.2% 17.7%
Early Vote 2012 37.6% 47.4% 14.9%
Total Early Vote 2012 40.5% 40.0% 19.5%
Total Early + Absentee 2012 40.5% 39.9% 19.6%

3rd Congressional District

  GOP Dem Other
Early Vote 32.1% 48.7% 19.2%
Actual Election Results 50.4% 42.9% 6.8%

4th Congressional District (excepting part of Lyon County)*

  GOP Dem Other
Early Vote 28.9% 53.7% 17.4%
Actual Election Results 42.1% 50.1% 7.8%

6th state Senate District

  GOP Dem Other
Early Vote 31.2% 50.9% 17.9%
Actual Election Results 50.8% 49.2% N/A

In Summary

     After the first weekend of early voting, it is looking like 2016 will be in between 2008 and 2012 in outcome. The margin will shrink this coming week, but it is unlikely it’ll shift as dramatically as the Republicans need. The 4th Congressional District is likely lost, and the 3rd Congressional District is quickly following suite. The 6th state Senate District (and thus the state Senate) may be lost for the GOP. The Trump factor might sink the Republican’s hope of picking up a U.S. Senate seat they desperately need to offset losses elsewhere.

     * Lyon County is split between the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, and early vote broken down by CD was not immediately available; in 2012, Lyon county gave 3012 votes to the Republican, 1002 to the Democrat, and 280 votes to two 3rd Party candidates.

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