In this world of hyper-partisan news vs. “fake news”, it is easy to become over confident and replace any critical thinking skills with “feelz” and assume political outcomes based on little more than faith.
In that vein a fair warning regarding over confidence to Republicans:
“Too many Republican voters are overly optimistic about November.
“If Hillary Clinton were president, Heller and Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt, running for governor, would be shoo-ins. Republicans — angry and scared about the future — would turn out in droves. That’s what happened in 2010 and 2014.
“If you’re a Republican, remember that feeling — and realize that Democrats are having those same feelings, only in reverse. There’s a real chance November sees a Democratic tidal wave.”
This isn’t to say that anything that happens tin November is set in stone, but only that perhaps Republicans should be worried that the Democrats have demonstrated in both special and regular general elections demonstrated an ability to organize, coordinate, and turn-out far beyond what Republicans have demonstrated in actual elections. That polls mostly show that the Democrats are far more likely to turn out and vote should just hammer home that the inverse of the common wisdom of the past few decades (or more) is more than just “fake news”.
Assume nothing in politics. Nothing.