With early voting nearly over, and ca 50% of the total vote: Democrats maintain a voter lead of just over 30,000, for a voter lead of 5%, which 1% below the Democrats active voter edge, comparable to 2012 at this point. The Democrat voter edge in Clark County remains just over 14% (over 42,000 votes), which is at their active voter registration lead, and an improvement for Republicans. The Democrat voter edge in Washoe County, which also includes Wednesday’s voters, is 3½% (with voter lead steady at about 2500 votes), which is still 5% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½%.
U.S. Senate & Congress
In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley, and a smaller voter lead for Democrats will help Joe Heck. The shrunken margin for the Democrats statewide bodes well for Heck, and the rurals might just be able to pull it out for him.
Both the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts find the Republicans trailing badly, with the Democrats building up an even greater firewall. Republicans are behind by over 7300 votes in the 3rd Congressional District, giving them an 8% lead. With about half of the total vote in, the Republicans will need to not only win the late early voters, late absentees, and Election day voters, but win them by an equal magnitude of 8%, which would be a 16% swing; the Republicans have shown no indications as of yet that they are capable of pulling that off.
In the 4th Congressional District, the Democrats have an overall lead of nearly 17,000 voters, even when including the less populous rural districts that have reported. The 4th should be considered a write-off for the Republicans at this point. This will be the first time that Clark County will not have a single Republican Representative in the House since Nevada had a single district back in the 1980 election.
State Senate & Assembly
With the Republicans having a slip 11-10 lead in the Nevada state Senate, the tipping point of control for the next four years will be SD6, which the Republicans were able to pick up in 2012. Republican nominee Gloria Seaman is still behind by over 2300 votes, or 8%. The Democrats also have voter lead in SD5 of over 2300, or 8%. Similar to the 3rd Congressional District, the Republicans have so far not shown that they can pull a 16% swing needed to win the early voter count. A strong share of the non-partisan and 3rd Party voters could help narrow the Democrats lead so far, but it is unlikely to be nearly enough. Republicans, furthermore, continue to be behind in SD15, located in Washoe. Washoe, despite having a greater Republican plurality of Republicans than in 2012, has a larger Democratic early and absentee voter lead in 2016 than they did in 2012 at this point; this disparity will likely result in the Republicans not only losing their state Senate majority, but being relegated to single digits in Senators… until 2020 at least (baring a death or resignation of a Democratic state Senator before the 2018 election in SD5, SD6, or SD15.
The Assembly is continuing to looking to be an absolute disaster for the Republicans.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2012:
|Early Vote + Absentee||37.1%||42.2%||20.7%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.4%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||37.0%||43.8%||17.7%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||32.6%||46.9%||20.5%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||33.1%||47.6%||19.3%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||38.4%||42.0%||19.5%|
|Total Early Vote 2012||40.5%||40.0%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||40.5%||39.9%||19.6%|
3rd Congressional District
|Actual Election Results||50.4%||42.9%||6.8%|
4th Congressional District (excepting part of Lyon County)**
|Actual Election Results||42.1%||50.1%||7.8%|
5th state Senate District
|Actual Election Results||48.0%||52.0%||N/A|
6th state Senate District
|Actual Election Results||50.8%||49.2%||N/A|
With about half of the total vote in, and only two days of early voting left, it continues to look like 2016 will be a worse year than 2012. The Republicans are set to lose two of Nevada’s four Congressional districts, the Assembly, and the state Senate for at least four years. However, the rural counties punching above their weight may very well save the day for Joe Heck
To whit: Republicans should be hitting the panic button like a crack monkey putting down the crack pipe.
* The following counties haven’t reported numbers for Wednesday as of posting: Carson City, Chuchill, Clark, Elko, Esmeralda, Humboldt, Lander, Lyon, and Mineral.
** Lyon County is split between the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, and early vote broken down by CD was not immediately available; in 2012, Lyon county gave 3012 votes to the Republican, 1002 to the Democrat, and 280 votes to two 3rd Party candidates.
*** Mineral county hasn’t reported their numbers for Wednesday as of posting.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…