With only two day left of early voting, the Republicans continue to build an unprecedented early voter lead: Statewide, Republicans yet again increased their lead to 17,575 our of 205,153 early voters, 3538 out of 32,172 absentee ballots returned, for a total of 21,122 out of 237,325 votes cast so far. Only 18% of registered voters have voted so far. The Republican voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide voter registration deficit of 5%. The Republicans lead has increased every day of early voting so far.
In Clark County, The Republicans early vote lead fell from 2336 to 1923, as did their advantage in absentee ballots returned, from 356 to 255. Democrats have led in Clark County only three of the first twelve days, or 1/4 of the time. With only two days left, the Republicans still have a voeter lead of 2178 in Clark County, and even if the Democrats win the last two days, they may not be able to overcome the lead that the Republicans have built up. Their 1% lead is 14% over their registration deficit of 13%, which is in contrast to the 7% lead the Democrats had in 2010. Voter turnout is 65% of what it was in 2010.
Despite the Republican’s lead shrinking in Clark County, they continue to lead in Commission Districts F and G, the three state Senate districts needed to retake the state Senate (SD08, SD09, SD20), and in nine Assembly districts that the Democrats won in 2012. Additionally, Republicans still have a lead in the Clark County portion of the 4th Congressional District, and an over 2000 voter lead in the rural counties that make up the rest of the District.
With Republican leading in votes in those nine Assembly districts that Democrats won in 2012, Democrats are behind in every single seat they won in Clark County 61% or less of the vote. If we extrapolate this dividing line to the four Assembly seats in Washoe county held by Democrats, we find that three of the four Assembly seats in Washoe county that elected Democrats in 2012 were won with 61% or less of the vote. Combined with the nine seats from Clark County, the Democrats could lose up to eleven seats to the Republicans, and perhaps even an additional seat to an Independent American Party candidate.
It is possible for the Democrats to regain leads in many of these Assembly districts, but Republicans will likely win many of them. The question is “how many”? In two Assembly districts, AD10 and AD34, the Democrat candidates were ruled ineligible. The Republican have a voter lead in AD34, but are behind by 13% in AD10. Unless the Republicans win a clear majority in the Assembly, the Democrats might seat both of the ineligible Democrat candidates. The Republicans would need to win seven seats in total to win outright. If they only win six, the Assembly would be split 21-21, with the Democrat from AD10 (and potentially AD34) voting until and if the Assembly decides to not seat them. If the Republicans win five or less, then the Democrats will seat them as they did Andrew Martin, who was also ruled ineligible in 2012.
In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 5356 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 47,248 or 11%, in early voters and absentee ballots.
Clark County makes up 62.7% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 19.9%, and the rural counties with 17.3% of the vote.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2008, 2010, and 2012.
|Early Vote + Absentee||46.0%||37.1%||16.9%|
|Early Vote 2012||37.0%||43.2%||19.7%|
|Total Early 2008||31.6%||51.8%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||40.2%||44.2%||15.7%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.5%|
The Republican edge in early voting and absentee ballots is about 14% above the Republicans statewide registration deficit of 5%.
Clark County Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population
|Early Vote + Absentee||42.1%||40.7%||17.2%|
|Early Vote 2010||38.3%||45.7%||16.1%|
|Total Early 2008||30.6%||52.0%||17.4%|
|Total Early 2010||37.4%||46.2%||16.4%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.6%|
Republican early vote lead (including absentees) is about 14% above their registration deficit of 13%.
Washoe County Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population
|Early Vote + Absentee||47.5%||36.2%||16.3%|
|Total Early 2008||35.3%||47.1%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||44.7%||40.3%||15.0%|
|Total Early 2012||39.9%||40.5%||19.5%|
To summarize: With only two days of early voting left, the Republicans are quickly cementing their early voter lead over Democrats, with over 20,000 lead statewide and over 2000 in Clark County. The Republicans remain ahead in the 4th Congressional district, the three state Senate districts needed to take a majority in the state Senate, and even a majority of Assembly districts including a district where there isn’t even a Republican running. The possibility of a Republican tsunami is very, very real.
Let us be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…