After three days of early voting, the Republicans have a statewide raw voter lead of 5261 votes out of 57,910 cast, including absentee ballots returned. 5% of registered voters have already voted. The voter lead of 9% for Republicans after the third day of early voting shows in increasing lead and a lead of 14% above their statewide registration deficit of 5%.
In Clark County, the Republicans lead for the second day in a row, increasing their lead in early votes to 220 voters. With returned absentees included, that lead grows to 299 voters. The Republicans now lead in all counties. In 2010, the Democrats had a lead 8% in Clark County, while in 2012, their lead was 20%.
The overall voter turnout in Clark County so far has been 27,897, which is 60% of the turnout in 2010. As it stands, the Republican turn-out in the thee state Senate races that will determine the control of the state Senate (SD8, SD9, SD20) show an early voter lead of between 6–12 %. The Republicans are less than 200 votes behind the Democrats in the Clark County portion of the 4th Congressional district. Since the 1/4 of the district outside of Clark County is heavily Republican, with Nye county alone having a Republican voter edge in early voting above 300, the 4th Congressional district is looking like a likely Republican pick-up. At this point, the Democrats may very lose not only every single partisan statewide office, but even the Assembly, where they currently have a majority of 27 to 15.
In Washoe county, they have a lead of 14%. At this point, the Republicans lead in early voting and absentees in every single county in Nevada.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2008, 2010, and 2012.
|Early Vote + Absentee||46.1%||37.0%||16.1%|
|Early Vote 2012||35.4%||48.2%||16.4%|
|Total Early 2008||31.6%||51.8%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||40.2%||44.2%||15.7%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.5%|
The Republican edge in early voting and absentee ballots is about 13% above the Republicans statewide registration deficit of 5%.
Clark County Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population
|Early Vote + Absentee||42.2%||41.4%||16.5%|
|Early Vote 2010||38.5%||46.3%||15.2%|
|Early Vote 2012||31.5%||51.7%||16.8%|
|Total Early 2008||30.6%||52.0%||17.4%|
|Total Early 2010||37.4%||46.2%||16.4%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.6%|
Democratic early vote lead (including absentees) is about 12% below their registration advantage of 13%.
Washoe County Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population
|Early Vote + Absentee||49.1%||35.5%||15.4%|
|Early Vote 2012||39.1%||45.7%||15.2%|
|Total Early 2008||35.3%||47.1%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||44.7%||40.3%||15.0%|
|Total Early 2012||39.9%||40.5%||19.5%|
To summarize: The Republicans are off to a strong head start.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…