The first six days of early voting have finished and the Blue Wave continues to build: Democrats have built up a voter edge of 26342, for a voter lead of 8%, which is 2% above the Democrats active voter edge. This is comparable to what the Democrats had statewide in 2012 at this point. The Republicans have slowed down the Blue Wave, but Democrats do best on or near the weekends, so the numbers will likely get worse for the Republicans this coming three-day weekend (Friday is Nevada Day, a state holiday), and the final Friday of early voting. The one silver lining on this coming Democratic storm cloud is that the Republicans are doing much better in absentee ballots, with a statewide lead of 2053, which is in contrast with 2012 when the Republicans had a 493 vote lead. This isn’t much of a lead, and even if the lead were much higher, it wouldn’t make much of a dent as absentees so far have been only about 15% of in-person early voting numbers.
The Democrat voter edge in Clark County remains at 16% (almost 36,000 votes), which is 2% above their active voter registration lead, and a point below to the Democrats’ lead in 2012, adjusted for the increase in active voters. The Democrat voter edge in Washoe County is 4% (with voter lead dropping below 2500 votes), which is still 5½% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½%, which is much more than the 1800 voter lead the Democrats had in Washoe county at this point. The rural counties balances out the increase in strength for the Democrats in Washoe, yet again demonstrating that the fifteen rural counties (including Carson City) tend to punch well above their weight in elections. Ominously, the Democrats continue to have a voter lead in Mineral County, which rarely goes Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state. While the lead in Mineral County is only 7 votes out of 556, Mineral County doesn’t go Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state.
U.S. Senate, Congress, and State Senate
In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley. While Joe Heck has a much better ground game and campaign than Heller did four years ago, Heller didn’t have to contend with the Trump effect, or with the campaign of Cortez Masto. While in almost any other year, Cortez Masto would be running a loosing campaign against Heck, the similar Democrat lead to 2012, despite a double-digit increase in active registered voters, is a good sign for Joe Heck.
Both the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts find the Republicans trailing badly. This will be the first time that Clark County will not have a single Republican Representative in the House since Nevada had a single district back in the 1980 election.
With the Republicans having a slip 11-10 lead in the Nevada state Senate, the tipping point of control for the next four years will be SD6, which the Republicans were able to pick up in 2012. Republican nominee Gloria Seaman is still behind by about 2000 votes, which is more than all of the non-partisan and 3rd party voters combined; the Democrats also have nearly a 1900 voter lead in SD5; while these numbers are comparable to yesterday’s, the Republicans will need to reverse this and further counter the big Dem turnout days of this coming weekend and last day of early voting if they are to have any hope of winning. To make matters worse for the Republicans, they remain behind in SD15 up in Washoe by ca 1000 voters. A loss there would result in a Democratic majority of 12-9 for the next two year, and a potentially higher lead in 2018 if they pick up any of the three swing seats, all held by Republicans.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2012:
Nevada (statewide)
| GOP | Dem | Other | |
| Early Vote | 35.4% | 45.2% | 19.4% |
| Early Vote + Absentee | 36.4% | 44.3% | 19.4% |
| Early Vote 2012 | 36.2% | 46.3% | 17.5% |
| Early + Absentee 2012 | 37.3% | 45.5% | 17.2% |
| Total Early 2012 | 36.1% | 44.5% | 19.4% |
| Total Early + Absentee 2012 | 37.0% | 43.8% | 17.7% |
Clark County
| GOP | Dem | Other | |
| Early Vote | 31.3% | 48.8% | 19.8% |
| Early Vote + Absentee | 32.1% | 48.1% | 19.8% |
| Early Vote 2012 | 31.6% | 50.5% | 17.9% |
| Early + Absentee 2012 | 32.8% | 49.7% | 17.5% |
| Total Early 2012 | 32.2% | 48.2% | 19.5% |
| Total Early + Absentee 2012 | 33.1% | 47.6% | 19.3% |
Washoe County
| GOP | Dem | Other | |
| Early Vote | 38.0% | 43.7% | 18.3% |
| Early Vote + Absentee | 38.9% | 42.7% | 18.4% |
| Early Vote 2012 | 40.7% | 42.9% | 16.4% |
| Early + Absentee 2012 | 41.1% | 42.4% | 16.4% |
| Total Early Vote 2012 | 40.5% | 40.0% | 19.5% |
| Total Early + Absentee 2012 | 40.5% | 39.9% | 19.6% |
3rd Congressional District
| GOP | Dem | Other | |
| Early Vote | 35.3% | 44.0% | 20.7% |
| Actual Election Results | 50.4% | 42.9% | 6.8% |
4th Congressional District (excepting part of Lyon County)**
| GOP | Dem | Other | |
| Early Vote*** | 31.1% | 49.8% | 19.0% |
| Actual Election Results | 42.1% | 50.1% | 7.8% |
5th state Senate District
| GOP | Dem | Other | |
| Early Vote | 33.9% | 46.4% | 19.7% |
| Actual Election Results | 48.0% | 52.0% | N/A |
6th state Senate District
| GOP | Dem | Other | |
| Early Vote | 34.7% | 46.1% | 19.1% |
| Actual Election Results | 50.8% | 49.2% | N/A |
In Summary
After the first six out of fourteen of early voting, it is looking like 2016 will be a worse year than 2012. The biggest difference will be the loss of one and maybe two state Senate seats that they won, though barely, in 2012, as well as the loss of the 3rd Congressional District due to having perpetual loser Danny Tarkanian instead of Joe Heck. The 4th Congressional District is likely lost, and the 3rd Congressional District is quickly following suite. The 6th state Senate District (and thus the state Senate) may be lost for the GOP, who may loose yet another seat. The Trump factor might sink the Republican’s hope of picking up a U.S. Senate seat they desperately need to offset losses elsewhere.
* As of posting, the following counties haven’t sent in numbers for Thursday yet: Esmeralda, Lander, Lincoln, Lyon, Storey.
** Lyon County is split between the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, and early vote broken down by CD was not immediately available; in 2012, Lyon county gave 3012 votes to the Republican, 1002 to the Democrat, and 280 votes to two 3rd Party candidates.
**As of posting, the following counties wholly within the 4th Congressional district haven’t sent in numbers for Thursday yet: Esmeralda and Lincoln.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…
