The first four days of early voting have finished and the Blue Wave continues to build: Democrats have built up a voter edge of 25,283, for a voter lead of 9%, which is 3% above the Democrats active voter edge. This is nearly 3000 more than Democrats had in 2012 at this point. The early vote on Thursdays day aren’t as bad as the previous weekend, but this is a usual trend: Democrats do best on or near the weekends, and the Republicans reduce the bleed on the weekdays, so the numbers will get worse for the Republicans this coming weekend, and the final Friday of early voting. The one silver lining on this coming Democratic storm cloud is that the Republicans are doing much better in absentee ballots, with a statewide lead of 1805, which is in contrast with 2012 when the Democrats have a 320 vote lead. This isn’t much of a lead, and even if the lead were much higher, it wouldn’t make much of a dent as absentees so far have been only about 15% of in-person early voting numbers. The absentee vote that has come in has been trending Republican, and at this point, the only hope of the Republicans is that not only will this trend continue, but that there is a large number of Republican absentee ballots for late deciders that will come in between now and election day.
The Democrat voter edge in Clark County is almost 16% (almost 32,000 votes), which is 2% above their active voter registration lead, and comparable to the Democrats’ lead in 2012, adjusted for the increase in active voters. The Democrat voter edge in Washoe County is 5% (over 2800 votes), which is 6½% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½%, which is much more than the 1989 voter lead the Democrats had in Washoe county at this point. The Democrats even have a voter lead in Mineral County, which rarely goes Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state. While the lead in Mineral County is only 12 votes out of 484, Mineral County doesn’t go Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state.
U.S. Senate, Congress, and State Senate
In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley. While Joe Heck has a much better ground game and campaign than Heller did four years ago, Heller didn’t have to contend with the Trump effect, or with the campaign of Cortez Masto. While in almost any other year, Cortez Masto would be running a loosing campaign against Heck, the 300 increase in Democratic voter lead after four days out of fourteen is about 40% of what would be necessary to overcome Berkeley’s deficit, assuming the non-partisan and 3rd Party voters vote similarly to what they did in 2012.
Both the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts find the Republicans trailing badly. This will be the first time that Clark County will not have a single Republican Representative in the House since Nevada had a single district back in the 1980 election.
With the Republicans having a slip 11-10 lead in the Nevada state Senate, the tipping point of control for the next four years will be SD6, which the Republicans were able to pick up in 2012. Republican nominee Gloria Seaman falls further behind by over 2000 votes, which is more than all of the non-partisan and 3rd party voters combined; the Democrats also have an over 1700 voter lead in SD5; while these numbers are comparable to yesterday’s, the Republicans will need to reverse this and further counter the big Dem turnout days of this coming weekend and last day of early voting if they are to have any hope of winning. Furthermore, Republicans are behind in SD5, which is held by a Democrat, and the only swing seat in the state Senate held by a Democrat. To make matters worse for the Republicans, they are behind in SD15 up in Washoe by ca 1000 voters. A loss there would result in a Democratic majority of 12-9 for the next two year, and a potentially higher lead in 2018 if they pick up any of the three swing seats, all held by Republicans.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2012:
|Early Vote + Absentee||36.0%||44.9%||19.1%|
|Early Vote 2012||36.2%||46.6%||17.2%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||37.3%||45.8%||21.7%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.4%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||37.0%||43.8%||17.7%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||32.0%||48.6%||21.8%|
|Early Vote 2012||31.7%||50.7%||17.6%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||33.0%||49.8%||22.3%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||33.1%||47.6%||19.3%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||38.3%||43.4%||21.1%|
|Early Vote 2012||40.7%||43.3%||16.0%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||41.1%||42.8%||21.1%|
|Total Early Vote 2012||40.5%||40.0%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||40.5%||39.9%||19.6%|
3rd Congressional District
|Actual Election Results||50.4%||42.9%||6.8%|
4th Congressional District (excepting part of Lyon County)*
|Actual Election Results||42.1%||50.1%||7.8%|
5th state Senate District
|Actual Election Results||48.0%||52.0%||N/A|
6th state Senate District
|Actual Election Results||50.8%||49.2%||N/A|
After the first five out of fourteen of early voting, it is looking like 2016 will be a worse year than 2012. The biggest difference will be the loss of one and maybe two state Senate seats that they won, though barely, in 2012, as well as the loss of the 3rd Congressional District due to having perpetual loser Danny Tarkanian instead of Joe Heck. The 4th Congressional District is likely lost, and the 3rd Congressional District is quickly following suite. The 6th state Senate District (and thus the state Senate) may be lost for the GOP, who may loose yet another seat. The Trump factor might sink the Republican’s hope of picking up a U.S. Senate seat they desperately need to offset losses elsewhere.
* Lyon County is split between the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, and early vote broken down by CD was not immediately available; in 2012, Lyon county gave 3012 votes to the Republican, 1002 to the Democrat, and 280 votes to two 3rd Party candidates.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…