The second and last weekend of early voting has concluded, with the final day of early voting occurring on the Friday immediately preceding election day. The two weekends of early voting, as well as the last day, tend to be the Democrats strongest day, in large part because the rural counties don’t have early voting on Sunday; the Democrats did very well in the second weekend, and were on par with their margins in 2016. The Democrat added a margin of 6833 early voters, which more than doubles their lead from the first week. The advantage the Republicans had with absentee ballots in the first week was not present, with the Democrats actually having four more returned absentees ballots during the weekend. In comparison, in 2016, the Democrats added 5973 early voters, which expanded to 6150 when early absentees were included. Ominously, Democrats had better turnout in rural Mineral County, the same as they did in 2016. The Democrats statewide voter lead, cumulatively, is 11,386; in comparison, their lead in 2016 was 33,300 voters, for a difference of about 22,000 early voters less than in 2016, relative to the Republicans. Hillary Clinton and Cortez Masto won statewide by about 27,000 votes each, though the later did barely lose Washoe County. With turnout overall at just under 80% of what it was in 2016, that 27,000 lead would translate, ceteris paribus, to just over 21,000 votes.
For Clark County, the Democrats added 7521 early voters to their lead of 17,999 for a total of 25,162. Though this does not translate directly to actual votes, and does not take into account how independents and 3rd parties vote, 40,000 vote lead from early voting is usually a cut-off for whether Republicans can make up the votes in Washoe and the rural counties. The Democrats actually added more early voters on the weekend than they did in 206, when they added 7163 early voters and returned absentees. Still, this is about 20,000 smaller early voter lead than in 2016. The Democrats edge in Clark county is at 10%, which is less than their 12½% active voter registration edge in the county.
For Washoe County, the Democrats retain a lead of 1120 voters in early voting and returned absentees, which almost doubles their first week lead of 620, resulting with the Democats having a lead of almost 2%, which stands in contrast with the 2% lead Republicans have in voter registration. For comparison, Democrats had a voter lead from the second weekend in 2016 of only thirty total votes, and a total lead of 2522 early voters at this point during early voting.
In the early vote alone, the Democrats aren’t doing much worse in Clark County compared to 2016, but actually doing fairly well in Washoe County for a non-Presidential year, with the Democrats lead statewide being primarily due to the heavy dropoff of Democrats vis-à-vis Clark County.
In the Congressional races, the Republicans are behind in both the 3rd and 4th Congressional races. In the 3rd, Republican Tarkanian is only 2901 behind Democrat Lee in early voters, or just under 3%, which is a 1% improvement for the Democrats. In the 4th, former GOP Congressman Hardy is behind former Dem Congressman Horsford in the Clark County portion of the district (which makes up the majority of the district population-wise, by 8877 voters or just over 12%, which is a 2% improvement over the weekend. When on when one includes the rural counties save for Lyon County, this drops to 6033 votes.
In the state Senate, the Republicans have 9 seats to the Democrats 11, with one former Republican turned independent caucusing with the Democrats who is not running for reelection. There is no possibility of the GOP picking up seats this cycle, aside from regaining SD08, which is being vacated by the aforementioned Republican turned independent. However, the Republicans have a shot at picking up SD05 and SD06 in 2020, which means that they need to pick up one of those seats to regain a majority in time for redistricting if they hold all their Senate seats this year, and both if they lose one. Losing more than one would preclude them from regaining the state Senate until after redistricting. In SD08 and SD20, the Democrats have a lead of about 2% in voter turn-out, with a voter lead of 303 and 413, respectively. While not a good position for Republicans, it is not insurmountable either. However, in the SD09, the Democrats have a lead of 1762; this seat is likely lost, as the percentage advantage nearly 10%, which is not far off from the ca 12% lead the Democrats had in the SD05 and SD06 in 2016, which translated to about 2300 votes and 2000 votes respectively after the second weekend. By comparison, the actual results saw the Democrats winning SD05 and SD06 by about 500 votes and 1100 votes respectively.
|Early Vote + Absentee||38.9%||42.0%||19.2%|
|Early Vote 2016||35.6%||44.4%||20.1%|
|Early Vote + Absentee 2016||36.3%||43.7%||20.00%|
|Early Vote 2012||36.1%||45.8%||18.1%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||37.0%||45.2%||17.8%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||35.2%||45.2%||19.5%|
|Early Vote 2016||31.9%||47.6%||20.6%|
|Early Vote + Absentee 2016||32.4%||47.1%||20.3%|
|Early Vote 2012||32.2%||49.4%||18.5%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||33.2%||48.7%||18.1%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||40.0%||41.7%||18.3%|
|Early Vote 2016||38.4%||42.7%||18.7%|
|Early Vote + Absentee 2016||39.0%||42.0%||19.0%|
|Early Vote 2012||40.1%||42.6%||17.3%|
|Early + Absentee 2012||40.5%||43.3%||17.2%|
3rd Congressional District
|Early Vote (9th Day) 2016||36.1%||42.6%||21.3%|
4th Congressional District (Excepting part of Lyon County)**
|Early Vote (9th Day) 2016||33.6%||46.6%||19.8%|
|Early Vote (9th Day)||34.5%||44.9%||20.6%|
|Actual Results||47.0%||47.9%||5.1% (Libertarian)|
|Early Vote (9th Day)||35.9%||43.9%||20.2%|
After the second weekend of early voting, the Democrats have increased their voter lead by more than double. However, their lead is ⅓ of what it was in 2016, with much of that due to lower turnout in the first week of early voting in Clark County. Democrat gains over the rest of the week through the end of early voting will be, relatively minimal, since the weekend voters tend to be much more heavily Democrat, with only the last day of early voting on Friday expected to have a Democrat turnout spike vis-à-vis Monday through Thursday’s early voters. The statewide races for Governor and U.S. Senate is still looking tight. The 3rd Congressional race has Democrats with a voter lead of less than 3000, which at this point in 2016 was about 8000 voters. Though in the 4th Congressional district the Democrats’ lead of almost 9000 is better than their 2016 lead at this point of nearly 16,000 votes, that difference is still less than the nearly 10,000 more actual votes the Democratic nominee got in 2016. Republicans, though behind, are keeping the Democrats early voter lead in SD08 and SD20 to about three hundred and four hundred voters, respectively, and are in a good position to keep those seats; however, their huge voter deficit in SD09 is far greater and the Democrats are in a position to pick it up, helping their chances in 2020 to keep the state Senate when the Republicans will have to win both Democrat controlled swing seats.
To wit: Republicans are still doing better than in 2016, but it not as better as they had been doing..
* As of posting, Esmeralda hasn’t sent in numbers for Saturday.
*** Lyon County is split between the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, and early vote broken down by CD was not immediately available; Hardy won Lyon County by 2144 votes in 209116.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…