With early voting over, and only Friday’s numbers to be updated, with probably close to ca 2/3 of the total vote: Democrats maintain a voter lead of just under 37,000, for a voter lead of 5½%, which ½% below the Democrats active voter edge, comparable to 2012 at this point. While this is not worse than in 2012, the Democrats are only being limited by the fact that the rural counties have already amassed a ca 25,000 voter lead. The Democrat voter edge in Clark County remains just over 13% (over 61,000 votes), which is 1% at their active voter registration lead, though due to the massive increase in overall registration, still leaves the Democrats with ca 10,000 more early voters in Clark County than four years ago. The Republicans have finally been able to gain a lead in Washoe with… a few hundred votes, which equates to less than a ½, which is still 2% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½%.
U.S. Senate & Congress
In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley. Joe Heck still has a chance, due entirely to the rural counties voting en masse. However, the state and Clark County Republican parties are run by Trump supporters who actively want to see Joe Heck lose. The Clark County Republican party narrowly avoided formally resolving to denounce and renounce Joe Heck; there have even been pro-Trump/anti-Heck mailers sent out to Republicans (without attribution, of course). Fortunately for Heck, the Republican party in Nevada is a non-entity.
Both the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts find the Republicans trailing badly, with the Democrats building up an even greater firewall. Republicans are behind by over 7400 votes in the 3rd Congressional District, giving Democrats a 4% lead. With 60% of the vote in, the Republicans will need to not only win the late early voters, late absentees, and Election day voters, but win them by an greater magnitude, or hope for a crushing 20%+ lead in with the non-partisan and 3rd Party voters; this is unlikely to heppen.
In the 4th Congressional District, the Democrats have an overall lead of almost 16,000 voters, even when including the less populous rural districts. The 4th should be considered a write-off for the Republicans at this point. This will be the first time that Clark County will not have a single Republican Representative in the House since Nevada had a single district back in the 1980 election.
State Senate & Assembly
With the Republicans having a slip 11-10 lead in the Nevada state Senate, the tipping point of control for the next four years will be SD6, which the Republicans were able to pick up in 2012. Republican nominee Gloria Seaman is still behind by almost 2700 votes, or 8%. The Democrats also have voter lead in SD5 of over 2600, or over 8%. It looks like the Republicans will lose the state Senate, for at least the next four years. Republicans, furthermore, continue to be behind in SD15, located in Washoe, abet by less than 1000 now. Washoe, despite having a greater Republican plurality of Republicans than in 2012, has a larger Democratic early and absentee voter lead in 2016 than they did in 2012 at this point; this disparity will likely result in.
The Assembly is continuing to looking to be an absolute disaster for the Republicans.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2012:
|Early Vote + Absentee||36.7%||42.1%||21.7%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.4%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||37.0%||43.8%||17.7%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||32.7%||45.8%||21.6%|
|Early Vote 2012||32.8%||48.6%||18.6%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||33.1%||47.6%||19.3%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||40.0%||39.7%||20.4%|
|Total Early Vote 2012||40.5%||40.0%||19.5%|
|Total Early + Absentee 2012||40.5%||39.9%||19.6%|
3rd Congressional District
|Actual Election Results||50.4%||42.9%||6.8%|
4th Congressional District (excepting part of Lyon County)*
|Actual Election Results||42.1%||50.1%||7.8%|
5th state Senate District
|Actual Election Results||48.0%||52.0%||N/A|
6th state Senate District
|Actual Election Results||50.8%||49.2%||N/A|
Early voting has concluded with out Friday yet to be tabulated. The Republicans are set to lose two of Nevada’s four Congressional districts, the Assembly, and the state Senate for at least four years. However, the rural counties punching above their weight may very well save the day for Joe Heck.
To whit: Republicans should start resigning themselves to cursing the lack of any real ground game (outside of Joe Heck’s campaign) for dooming Nevada for the next two to four years… if not longer.
* Lyon County is split between the 1st and 4th Congressional Districts, and early vote broken down by CD was not immediately available; in 2012, Lyon county gave 3012 votes to the Republican, 1002 to the Democrat, and 280 votes to two 3rd Party candidates.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…