There has been much-a-rumbling from the right about ditching the Republican party for a new 3rd party due to the many recent sell-outs (or perceived sell-outs) of the voters that elected them in the last election.
There are obvious concerns that a 3rd party would split the conservative vote, allowing Progressive Democrats to take full power. On one hand, it is argued that the Republican leadership is de facto already giving the Democrats full power, and that it wouldn’t get much worse with Democrats in de jure control. On the other hand, it would provide Progressive forces a unique opportunity to so “fundamentally transform” America, that any resultant conservative party would never be able to win an election.
I propose the following test to determine if indeed a 3rd party is even possible in the best of situations:
Demonstrate that a conservative third party can, for two consecutive elections, either 1). Take over the Louisiana Senate; 2). Take over the Louisiana House of Representatives; or 3). Win a majority of Louisiana’s delegation to the House.
Do that and you will have proven to me that a 3rd party is a viable replacement for the Republican party.
Why Louisiana? It is a conservative state with a “Jungle Primary” that precludes a Leftist from winning a conservative seat with a plurality of the vote due to the conservative vote being split between GOP and 3rd Party.
In such a case, a 3rd party challenge becomes plausible, especially in conservative districts where you have only one GOP candidate and one conservative 3rd party candidate.
You want a 3rd Party to succeed in your state? Install a “Jungle Primary” in your state. Even if the state if dominated by Democrats, strategic targeting of seats would provide a test of viability as to a 3rd party replacing the Republicans, while minimizing the chance of throwing conservative seats to Progressive Democrats.