Nevada Early Vote Update 2014 (Day 11 of 14)

     After over 3/4 of early voting completed, The Republican wave continues to grow into a tsunami: Statewide, Republicans increased their voter lead to 16,451 out of 181,673 early voters, 3242 out of 28,668 absentee ballots returned, for a total of 19,683 out of 210,3431 votes cast so far. About 18% of registered voters have voted so far. The voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide registration deficit. The Republicans early voter lead has increased for the 10th straight day.

     Democrats rely on an early voter advantage to offset the relative Republican advantage on election day. With their being nearly 20,000 votes underwater so far, the only hope the Democrats have is to dominate the last few days of early voting and turnout with a historically unprecedented lead on Election day. So far, the Democrats have not demonstrated the ability to turnout Democrats.

     In Clark County, Republicans have yet again increased their early voter lead to 2336 out of 115,400 early votes. Returned absentee ballots increase that lead further by 356 out of 16,496, resulting in the republicans having an overall voter lead of 2692 out of 131,896 votes cast so far. This represents a 2% lead, which is 15% over their voter registration deficit of 13%, which is in contrast to the 7% lead the Democrats had in 2010. Voter turnout is 65% of what it was in 2010.

     This lead in Clark County for Republicans is having ramifications from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Republicans now have 4-digit leads in both Commission districts F and G, while the Democrats only lead in the heavily Democrat district E. With the Republicans ever-increasing countywide lead, they will likely pick-up some countywide executive offices. In both cases, the Democrats monopoly will be broken.

     In the 4th Congressional District, the Republicans now have an outright lead in Clark County of 189. While this may not seem like much, one quarter of the district is in the rural counties (which is comprised of part of Lyon county and all of White Pine, Nye, Esmeralda, Mineral and Lincoln counties) that vote very heavily for Republicans. Overall, the Republicans have a four digit lead in early voting districtwide. Rep. Steven Horsford should start looking for a new job.

     Republicans continue to dominate state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) they need to pick-up the state Senate, with double digit percent leads in SD8 and SD20. Additionally, in SD21, the Republicans reduced the Democrats lead in SD21 to 443 with 1132 votes cast by non-partisans, Libertarians, and Independent American Party voters. At this point, the state Senate seems lost, particularly when the Democrats need to use all their resources to save Ross Miller, who is running for Attorney General, and surprisingly their Assembly majority.

     Republicans lead with early voters in eight Assembly districts Clark County that Democrats won in 2012; this lead extends to nine seats when returned absentee ballots are included. In AD12, Republicans lead despite there being no Republican on the ballot, with the Democrat facing off against an Independent American Party candidate. All other of the nine seats feature a straight Republican vs. Democrat contest except for AD21, where there is also a Libertarian Party candidate.

     With Republican regaining the lead in votes cast (both early voting and returned absentee ballots) in AD08 and AD12, Democrats are behind in every single seat they won in Clark County 61% or less of the vote. If we extrapolate this dividing line to the four Assembly seats in Washoe county held by Democrats, we find that three of the four Assembly seats in Washoe county that elected Democrats in 2012 were won with 61% or less of the vote. Combined with the nine seats from Clark County, the Democrats could lose up to eleven seats to the Republicans, and perhaps even an additional seat to an Independent American Party candidate. It also goes to show that the Republicans should always field candidates, even for offices that may at the time seem like a lost cause.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 4834 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 41,952 or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 62.7% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 19.9%, and the rural counties with 17.3% of the vote.

     Here are the percentages and comparison with 2008, 2010, and 2012.

Nevada (statewide)

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 46.1% 37.0% 17.0%
Early Vote + Absentee 46.3% 36.9% 16.8%
Early Vote 2012 37.0% 43.2% 19.7%
Total Early 2008 31.6% 51.8% 17.5%
Total Early 2010 40.2% 44.2% 15.7%
Total Early 2012 36.1% 44.5% 19.5%

     The Republican edge in early voting and absentee ballots is about 14% above the Republicans statewide registration deficit of 5%.

Clark County Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 42.3% 40.3% 17.4%
Early Vote + Absentee 42.5% 40.4% 17.1%
Early Vote 2010 38.4% 45.7% 16.0%
Total Early 2008 30.6% 52.0% 17.4%
Total Early 2010 37.4% 46.2% 16.4%
Total Early 2012 32.2% 48.2% 19.6%

     Republican early vote lead (including absentees) is about 15% above their registration deficit of 13%.

Washoe County Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 47.3% 36.7% 16.0%
Early Vote + Absentee 47.7% 36.2% 16.2%
Early Vote 2012 40.1% 42.6% 17.3%
Total Early 2008 35.3% 47.1% 17.5%
Total Early 2010 44.7% 40.3% 15.0%
Total Early 2012 39.9% 40.5% 19.5%

     To summarize: With most of early voting completed, the Republicans starting to build up an early voter firewall against Democrats come election day. While the 10th day of early voting say the Republicans again increased their voter lead in Clark County. The Republicans are ahead in early voters in the three state Senate districts need to give them a 11-10 majority in the house. The Republicans are also ahead in a majority of Assembly districts, which would give them full control of that chamber for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president. The 4th Congressional district is also looking like a Republican take-over.

     Let us be reminded of the words of Virgil:

“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”

     Until the next update…

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