After five days of early voting, the Republicans’ statewide raw vote lead continues to increase, with their lead being 9705 out of 99,220 cast, including absentee ballots returned. The voter lead for Republicans of 10% is 15% above their statewide registration deficit of 5%. 8% of registered voters have already voted. In 2012, the Democrats lead in combined early voters and returned absentee ballots by 22,557 statewide.
In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted). The Republicans currently have a lead of 2500, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots returned.
In Clark County, Republicans continue to increase their narrow lead, which is now 698 early voters. When returned absentees are included, their lead rides to 898. At this point in 2010, the Democrats led by 5109, or 8%, in Clark county. In 2012, the Democrats had a lead of 28,707 early voters and 1810 in returned absentee ballots. The turnout in Clark County is 64% of what is was in 2010.
Republicans continue to lead in early voter turnout in the three state Senate districts needed to gain control of the state Senate (SD8, SD9, and SD20), as well as the 4th Congressional district, currently held by Steven Horsford.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2008, 2010, and 2012.
|Early Vote + Absentee||46.7%||36.9%||16.4%|
|Early Vote 2012||36.2%||46.6%||16.8%|
|Total Early 2008||31.6%||51.8%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||40.2%||44.2%||15.7%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.5%|
The Republican edge in early voting and absentee ballots is about 15% above the Republicans statewide registration deficit of 5%.
Clark County Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population
|Early Vote + Absentee||42.4%||40.9%||16.8%|
|Early Vote 2010||38.2%||46.4%||15.4%||Early Vote 2012||31.7%||50.7%||17.6%|
|Total Early 2008||30.6%||52.0%||17.4%|
|Total Early 2010||37.4%||46.2%||16.4%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.6%|
Republican early vote lead (including absentees) is about 14% above their registration deficit of 13%.
Washoe County Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population
|Early Vote + Absentee||48.4%||36.1%||15.5%|
|Early Vote 2012||40.7%||43.2%||16.1%|
|Total Early 2008||35.3%||47.1%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||44.7%||40.3%||15.0%|
|Total Early 2012||39.9%||40.5%||19.5%|
To summarize: With 1/3 of early voting done, the Republicans are in a very strong position to dominate. While the 2nd week of early voting tends to be heavier, giving the Democrats a chance to overcome the growing Republican voter lead, every day the Democrats do not manage to reverse this trend just makes it that much more difficult to reverse.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…