After the 12th day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 40K raw voter numbers over Republicans; this shrinks to less than 37K when absentees that have been turned-in already are included.
After ten day of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 70K in Clark County. The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 77% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 15%, relative to four years ago. This results in a 67% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting. Absentees are coming in at about 15% of the early votes. At this 67% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 13.6%, or about 62K in Clark County. Assuming that early votes are about 70% of the total vote, and with an 80% turnout, this would give a lead for the Democrats in Clark County at about 75K
Washoe county continues to trend towards being an overall wash (pun intended) with a less than 1000 vote difference between Republicans and Democrats. The strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties id the only thing that is blunting the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 54K. With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K in favor of the Republicans total, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 50K. With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just over 5%. This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).
All of the above assumes that 2012 trends like in 2008 (with Democrat vote advantage shrunk to 67%, and 115% of the early voters). If the last two days for early voting are decent for the Republicans, the projected raw vote lead of 50K could shrink. This also does not take into account a potential increase in absentee ballots, which don’t have to be in until election day, and would almost certainly benefit the Republicans, which have an edge in absentee ballots in and reported of over 3000 votes. An improvement in the ground game on election day would further narrow the Democrats raw voter lead. At that point, who get what percent of each parties or independents vote starts to really matter.
After the 12th day of early voting (only five weekday days remaining):
|Early Vote + Absentee||37.6%||44.0||18.4%|
|Total Early 2008||31.6%||51.8%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||40.2%||44.2%||15.7%|
Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees is about 1/2% below their statewide registration advantage of 7%.
Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population
|Early Vote (12th day in 2008)||30.2%||52.9%||16.9%|
|Early Vote (12th day in 2010)||38.3%||45.7%||16.1%|
|Early Vote + Absentee||33.8%||47.6%||18.6%|
|Total Early 2008||30.6%||52.0%||17.4%|
|Total Early 2010||37.4%||46.2%||16.4%|
Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees for Clark County is 1% below the Democrats registration advantage of 15%.
Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population
|Early Vote + Absentee*||41.0%||40.8%||18.2%|
|Total Early 2008||35.3%||47.1%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||44.7%||40.3%||15.0%|
*Washoe has not been updating their absentee ballot info on a timely basis.
Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees in Washoe is on par with the even registration between Republicans and Democrats.
To summarize, not as bad as in 2008, but not as good at 2010. The Democrats raw vote lead after 12 days of early voting (and probably ⅓ of the vote) is substantial, though much less than 4 years ago. Obama seems at this point likely to win Nevada, though at a substantially narrowed margin. Heller’s chances are dependent on a strong Obama-Heller voter block that can’t stand that Auton-American Shelley Berkley, which may prove significant.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…