Nevada Early Vote Update (10th Day of 14)

     After the 10th day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 34K raw votes, which was 2K less than the 36K it was the previous day.  Washoe county continues to trend towards being a wash (pun intended), so only the strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties will even partially blunt the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 47K.  After ten day of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 61K.  The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 79% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 40%.  This results in a 56% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting.  Absentees are coming in at just under 1/5 of the early votes.

     At this 56% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 62K in Clark County.  With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K in favor of the Republicans total, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 40K.  With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just over 4%.  This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).

     All of the above assumes that 2012 trends like in 2008 (with Democrat vote advantage shrunk to 56%, and 140% of the early voters).

     After the 10th day of early voting (only five weekday days remaining):

Nevada (statewide)

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote* 36.5% 45.2% 18.3%
Early Vote + Absentee 37.5% 44.6% 17.9%
Total Early 2008 31.6% 51.8% 17.5%
Total Early 2010 40.2% 44.2% 15.7%

     Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees is comparable to the Democrats statewide registration advantage of 7%.

Clark County

Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 32.8% 48.6% 18.6%
Early Vote (1st Week in 2008) 29.2% 54.4% 16.5%
Early Vote (1st Week in 2010) 38.2% 46.0% 15.8%
Early Vote + Absentee 33.7% 48.1% 18.2%
Total Early 2008 30.6% 52.0% 17.4%
Total Early 2010 37.4% 46.2% 16.4%

     Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees for Clark County is ½% below the Democrats registration advantage of 15%.

Washoe County

Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 40.2% 43.1% 17.5%
Early Vote + Absentee* 40.8% 41.8% 17.5%
Total Early 2008 35.3% 47.1% 17.5%
Total Early 2010 44.7% 40.3% 15.0%

*Washoe has not been updated their absentee ballot info on a timely basis.

     Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees in Washoe is 1% above the even registration between Republicans and Democrats.

     To summarize, not as bad as in 2008, but not as good at 2010. The Democrats raw vote lead after the first week of early voting (and probably ⅓ of the vote) is substantial, though the past few days have reduced that with their overall lead in raw voter numbers actually shrinking since the previous day.  Obama seems at this point likely to win Nevada, though at a substantially narrowed margin.  Heller’s chances are dependent on a strong Obama-Heller voter block that can’t stand that Auton-American Shelley Berkley, which may prove significant.

     Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:

“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”

     Until the next update…

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