After the 9th day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 36K raw votes. Washoe county is trending towards being a wash (pun intended), so only the strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties will even partially blunt the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 46K. After nine day of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 56K. The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 82% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 26%. This results in a 64% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting. Absentees are coming in at just under 1/6 of the early votes.
At this 64% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 70K in Clark County. With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K in favor of the Republicans, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 45K. With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just under 5%. This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness), which adds to the positivity previously noted.
After the 9th day of early voting (only five weekday days remaining):
Nevada (statewide)
| GOP | Dem | Ind. | |
| Early Vote* | 36.1% | 45.8% | 18.1% |
| Early Vote + Absentee | 37.6% | 45.2% | 17.8% |
| Total Early 2008 | 31.6% | 51.8% | 17.5% |
| Total Early 2010 | 40.2% | 44.2% | 15.7% |
Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees is ½% above the Democrats statewide registration advantage of 7%.
Clark County
Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population
| GOP | Dem | Ind. | |
| Early Vote | 32.2% | 59.6% | 18.5% |
| Early Vote (1st Week in 2008) | 28.6% | 55.1% | 16.3% |
| Early Vote (1st Week in 2010) | 37.8% | 46.5% | 15.8% |
| Early Vote + Absentee | 33.1% | 48.8% | 17.5% |
| Total Early 2008 | 30.6% | 52.0% | 17.4% |
| Total Early 2010 | 37.4% | 46.2% | 16.4% |
Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees for Clark County is ½% above the Democrats registration advantage of 15%.
Washoe County
Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population
| GOP | Dem | Ind. | |
| Early Vote | 40.1% | 42.6% | 17.3% |
| Early Vote + Absentee* | 41.5% | 42.6% | 17.2% |
| Total Early 2008 | 35.3% | 47.1% | 17.5% |
| Total Early 2010 | 44.7% | 40.3% | 15.0% |
*Washoe has not been updated their absentee ballot info on a timely basis.
Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees in Washoe is 2% above the approximate even registration.
To summarize, not as bad as in 2008, but not nearly as good at 2010. The Democrats raw vote lead after the first week of early voting (and probably ⅓ of the vote) is substantial. Obama seems at this point likely to win Nevada, though at a substantially narrowed margin. Heller’s chances are dependent on a strong Obama-Heller voter block that can’t stand that Auton-American Shelley Berkley, which may prove significant.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…
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