In Clark County (the home of Las Vegas and 70% of the state’s population), the Democrats have about 86 to 88% about of the raw vote lead they had in 2008. With turnout this year 30% above what it was in 2008, the Democrats voter advantage in 2012 is about 2/3 of what is was in 2008. An increase in the early vote by 30% would mean that 60% of all active registered voters will have voted before election day by early voting. Absentee ballots are coming in at about 1/6 that of early votes, meaning that 70% of all active registered voters will have voted by election day. This would mean that 88% or so of all ballots cat will be before election day, assuming an 80% turnout.
All of the above assumes that 2012 trends like in 2008 (with Democrat vote advantage shrunk to 66%, and 130% of the voters). For Clark County, this would mean that early voting, exclusive of absentee ballots, would be 75% of the total ballots cast by election day, assuming an 80% turnout. This also assumes that the Democratic advantage is The polling for the independents has varied from R+18 to D+5 (or more). My back-of-the-envelope calculations have been assuming that each party keeps similar % of their voters and independents are split.
Washoe (home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population), the Democrats have about a raw voter lead of a bit over a thousand. Washoe will likely be a wash (pun intended), with the rural counties (with a generous 25K raw vote lead for Republicans) cutting the Clark lead estimate of about 85K Dem raw voter lead at the end of election day to about 60K, this would mean that Obama would win by around 6%, based on ~80% turnout . Probably 40% of the total vote has been cast so far.
Since Heller has been running 4-6% ahead of Romney in the polls, the Senate race looks like a toss up right now.
So, after the 8th day of Early voting in Clark County (home of Las Vegas and 70% of the state’s population):
|Early Vote (1st Week in 2008)||28.3%||55.4%||16.2%|
|Early Vote (1st Week in 2010)||37.8%||46.5%||15.7%|
|Total Early 2008||30.6%||52.0%||17.4%|
|Total Early 2010||37.4%||46.2%||16.4%|
D over R margin’s 44K. Was 50K in 2008. Total vote 30% more more than in 2008. Dem lead is 2/3 of 2008
Two things are making me less pessimistic about Heller. I’ve heard from some die-hard lefties I know who enthusiastically voted for Obama, that they voted for Heller because they couldn’t stand that Auton-American Shelley Berkly (D – Nestene Consciousness). Also, many of the union members are voting for Obama like they have been commanded to do, but are finalizing their ballots at that point thus leaving the rest of the races blank. This will help Heller immensly, and may result in an Obama-Heller win on Nov. 6th.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…