With over 2/3 of the early voting days over, the unprecidented Republican was continues to grow. After the tenth day of early voting, Republicans increased their lead 14,186 out of 159,482 early voters, 2980 out of 26,908 returned absentee ballots, for a total of 17,166 out of 186,390 votes cast. The voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide registration deficit. The Republicans early voter lead has increased for the 9th straight day.
For Democrats to win, they have to build a huge voter lead in Clark County to offset the Republican rural counties, and win Washoe county. With the rural counties voting at a much higher rate than Clark, combined with the Republicans’ heavy lead in Washoe, the Democrats voter deficit in Clark County is a grim sign for them
In Clark County, Republicans have had one of their best days yet, with the increase of their early voter lead to 1769 out of 101,810 early votes. Returned absentee ballots increase their lead by an additional 325 voters out of 16,126, resulting in the Republicans having an overall voter lead of 2,094 out of 115,938 votes cast so far. This 1% lead for Republicans is 14% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, the Democrats led in early voting by 8%. Voter turnout is 65% of what it was in 2010.
Republicans continue to increase their leads in Clark County Commission districts F and G. A Republican win in either seat would give the Republicans their first seat on the Clark County Commission in six year, which currently has all seven seats held by Democrats. Only in district E, are the Democrats ahead. Combined with the countywide voter lead, many of the countywide executive offices will likely flip to Republican control.
The 4th Congressional District is looking to be a take-over by Republicans at this point, with Republicans winning early voters over the past two days in the Democrat heavy Clark County portion of the district. Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford is ahead in the Clark County portion of the 4th by only 86 votes! It is not unconceivable that he could be behind after early voting ends in Clark County. Without that edge, the heavily Republican rural parts of the district (which is comprised of part of Lyon county and all of White Pine, Nye, Esmeralda, Mineral and Lincoln counties) will not only Horsford to lose, but lose in a landslide.
The Republicans’ lead has shrunk slightly in the key state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) they need to pick-up the state Senate, though they retain a sizable lead in SD8 and SD20, and a smaller one in SD9. Additionally, in SD21, the Democrats are ahead by only 446 early voters, with 1052 votes cast by non-partisans, Libertarians, and Independent American Party voters.
The Republicans lead in seven Assembly districts that Democrats won in 2012 in Clark County. This would be enough to flip control of the Assembly to the Republicans. The Republicans lost their early voter edge in AD12 by 9 voters, where there is no Republican on the ballot (the Democrat is up against an Independent American Party candidate). Republicans increased their lead in AD05, AD21, AD29, AD34, AD35, and AD41. Republicans lost ground in AD09, but maintain a slim lead.
Democrats lead in no Clark County Assembly districts where the Democrats did not win at least 60% of the vote (59.51% in AD12). The seat with the next lowest Democrat percentage of the vote was AD34 where the Democrat won 57.26% of the vote in 2012 with a margin of over 3000 votes, but where they are behind in early voting by 226 early voters. If we extrapolate this dividing line to the four Assembly seats in Washoe county held by Democrats, we find that two of the seats are below the 57.26% level: AD30 and AD31 which went for the Democrats in 2012 with 57.0% and 52% of the vote. Additionally, AD27 went for the Democrats in 2012 with 57.8% of the vote, which is above the 57.26% for AD34 but below the 59.51% in AD12. So, in addition to the seven Clark County Assembly districts with the Republican early voter lead, two to three Assembly districts in Washoe county may flip as well, giving the Republicans 24 or 25 of the Assembly seats compared to 18 or 17 seats for the Democrats.
In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 4215 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 36,334, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.
Clark County makes up 63.3% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 19.5%, and the rural counties with 17.2% of the vote.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2008, 2010, and 2012.
|Early Vote + Absentee||46.3%||37.1%||16.6%|
|Early Vote 2012||37.0%||43.2%||19.7%|
|Total Early 2008||31.6%||51.8%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||40.2%||44.2%||15.7%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.5%|
The Republican edge in early voting and absentee ballots is about 14% above the Republicans statewide registration deficit of 5%.
Clark County Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population
|Early Vote + Absentee||42.4%||40.6%||17.0%|
|Early Vote 2010||38.2%||46.0%||15.9%|
|Total Early 2008||30.6%||52.0%||17.4%|
|Total Early 2010||37.4%||46.2%||16.4%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.6%|
Republican early vote lead (including absentees) is about 14% above their registration deficit of 13%.
Washoe County Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population
|Early Vote + Absentee||47.8%||36.2%||16.0%|
|Early Vote 2012||40.1%||42.6%||17.3%|
|Total Early 2008||35.3%||47.1%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||44.7%||40.3%||15.0%|
|Total Early 2012||39.9%||40.5%||19.5%|
To summarize: With most of early voting completed, the Republicans starting to build up an early voter firewall against Democrats come election day. While the 10th day of early voting say the Republicans again increased their voter lead in Clark County. The Republicans are ahead in early voters in the three state Senate districts need to give them a 11-10 majority in the house. The Republicans are also ahead in a majority of Assembly districts, which would give them full control of that chamber for the first time since Ronald Reagan was president. The 4th Congressional district is also looking like a Republican take-over.
Let us be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…