Nevada Early Vote Update (Day 9 of 14)

     With the conclusion of the 9th day of early voting, the Republicans have yet again increased their lead by 12,200 out of 111,811 early voters, 2601 out of 24,569 absentee ballots returned, for a total of 14,801 out of 165,481 votes cast so far. 14% of registered voters have voted so far. The voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide registration deficit. The Republicans early voter lead has increased for the 8th straight day.

     In Clark County, the Republicans managed to win early voters on the 9th day, and have again increased their lead to 1151 early voters out of 89,493. When returned absentees are included, that lead increases to 1438. This 1% lead for Republicans is 14% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, the Democrats led in early voting by 11,858 votes, or about 9%. Voter turnout is 65% of what it was in 2010.

     Republicans continue to lead in County Commission districts F and G, though their lead in District F decreased by 25 votes. In District E, they continue to fall behind. The Republicans are in good shape to pick-up those two Commission seats in addition to some county-wide executive offices.

     In the 4th Congressional District, Democrat incumbent Steven Horsford is ahead by only 336 early voters in Clark County. On Sunday, there were 54 more Republicans voters than Democrat voters in the 4th Congressional District, with Republicans winning with 1234 early voters compared to 1180 Democrat voters. The rural are heavily Republicans, and Nye county alone has given a Republcian early voter advantage of over 1000.

     The Republicans are increasing their leads in the key state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) they need to pick-up the state Senate. Additionally, in SD21, the Democrats are ahead by only 420 early voters, with 980 votes cast by non-partisans, Libertarians, and Independent American Party voters.

     The Republicans continue to lead in eight Assembly seats in Clark County where Democrats won in 2012. The Republicans have fallen behind in AD08 by 17 votes, though 451 non-partisans, Libertarians, and Independent American Party voters have also voted. In those eight Assembly districts, Republicans increased their voter lead (in AD09 the voter lead remained the same). In seven of those eight districts, Republicans have a candidate running, and winning those seven seats would give the Assembly to the Republicans with a clear majority for the first time since the ’80’s. In AD12, there is no Republican, but there is an Independent American Party candidate. Additionally in AD21, there is a Libertarian Party candidate who will likely funnel votes the Republican would have otherwise gotten.

     No Assembly seat in Clark County, that the Democrat won in 2012 with less than 61% of the vote, has the Democrats ahead in early voters after eight days of early voting. If we extrapolate that 61% dividing line to Washoe, than three of the four assembly districts that the Democrats hold would be threatened. AD27, AD30, and AD31 all went for the Democrat candidate with less than 61% of the vote, leaving only AD24 which was won by the Democrats with 68% of the vote. Though it is unlikely that the Democrats won’t regain early voter pluralities in many of these seats, as it stands now, the Republicans are leading in 11 total assembly districts (with the 12th possibly going to the Independent American Party candidate) that the Democrats won in 2012; this would result in the Democrats having been one seat away from a supermajority in the Assembly, to Republicans being one seat away in the Assembly, assuming the IAP candidate does in fact and chooses to caucus with the Republicans. In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 3749 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 32,450, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 63.3% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 19.6%, and the rural counties with 17.1% of the vote.

     Here are the percentages and comparison with 2008, 2010, and 2012.

Nevada (statewide)

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 45.9% 37.3% 16.8%
Early Vote + Absentee 46.2% 37.2% 16.6%
Early Vote 2012 36.1% 45.8% 18.1%
Total Early 2008 31.6% 51.8% 17.5%
Total Early 2010 40.2% 44.2% 15.7%
Total Early 2012 36.1% 44.5% 19.5%

     The Republican edge in early voting and absentee ballots is about 14% above the Republicans statewide registration deficit of 5%.

Clark County Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 42.0% 40.7% 17.3%
Early Vote + Absentee 42.2% 40.9% 16.p%
Early Vote 2008 36.1% 45.8% 18.1%
Early Vote 2010 37.8% 46.5% 15.8%
Total Early 2008 30.6% 52.0% 17.4%
Total Early 2010 37.4% 46.2% 16.4%
Total Early 2012 32.2% 48.2% 19.6%

     Republican early vote lead (including absentees) is about 14% above their registration deficit of 13%.

Washoe County Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 47.5% 36.7% 15.8%
Early Vote + Absentee 48.0% 36.1% 15.9%
Early Vote 2012 40.1% 42.6% 17.3%
Total Early 2008 35.3% 47.1% 17.5%
Total Early 2010 44.7% 40.3% 15.0%
Total Early 2012 39.9% 40.5% 19.5%

     To summarize: With most of early voting completed, the Republicans are in a very strong position to dominate. While the 9th day of early voting say the Republicans again increased their voter lead in Clark County. With the last weekend day for early voting completed, the chance for Democrats to reverse the Republicans voter lead is quickly dissipating. October 21st is a holiday in Nevada (Nevada Day, to be specific) and the last day of early voting, and Democrats will probably try to make up a lot of votes then. Both the state Senate and 4th Congressional district are looking gone, and the Assembly may also be if trends continue.

     Let us be reminded of the words of Virgil:

“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”

     Until the next update…

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