Nevada Early Vote Update 2014 (Day 8 of 14)

     With the 8th day of early voting completed, the Republicans were yet again abe to increase their lead in early voters. Statewide, Republicans lead by 11,456 out of 111,518 early votes cast, and 2583 votes out of 24484 early absentee ballots returned, for a total of 14,019 out of 151,888 votes cast so far, not including nine rural counties that have not reported their Saturday numbers. The voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide registration deficit. 13% of registered voters have voted so far.

     In Clark County, the Democrats had more early voters on Saturday then the Republicans… by 42 voters. However, the Republicans still lead by 984 early voters. When returned absentees are included, that lead increases to 1271. This 1% lead for Republicans is 14% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, Democrats led by 9%. After eight days, voter turn-out in 55% of what it was in 2010.

     Of the three County Commissioner races (Seats E, F, and G — all held by Democrats), the Republicans have increased their lead on Saturday in both District F and District G, while the Democrats increased their lead in District E. The Republicans are in good shape to pick-up those two Commission seats in addition to some county-wide executive offices.

     In the 4th Congressional District, the Republicans continue to lead in early voter turn out, with the Democrats lead of only 389 in the Democrat heavy portion of the district in Clark County more than compensated for in the rural counties, with Nye county alone giving the Republicans a lead of over 1000 early voters.

     The Republicans are increasing their leads in the key state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) they need to pick-up the state Senate.

     Of the nine Assembly seats that the Democrats won in 2012, but were behind in early voters in 2014 after the first week, all nine continue to have Republicans leading in early voters. Three seats say the Republicans lead shrink: AD08, AD12, and AD21. But in six of the seats, the Republicans have increased their lead: AD05, AD09, AD29, AD34, AD35, and AD41. Six seats would be sufficient to split the Assembly 21 to 21.

     However, three of these nine seats are not simple Republican vs. Democrats matches. In AD12, there is no Republican candidate, but there is an Independent American Party (IAP) candidate. Could we see the first IAP elected Assembly member? In AD21, there is also a Liberetarian Party member running, though any votes won from Republicans could be offset by IAP and non-partisans voting for the Republican. AD34 is the seat where the Democrat candidate Meghan Smith was declared ineligible to run, leaving Republican Victoria Seaman the only legitimate candidate, despite Smith remaining on the ballot. If Seaman can win the seat outright, the chances of which are bolstered by signs declaring Smith’s ineligibility, than any fear of the Democrat being seated would disappear.

     No Assembly seat in Clark County, that the Democrat won in 2012 with less than 61% of the vote, has the Democrats ahead in early voters after eight days of early voting. If we extrapolate that 61% dividing line to Washoe, than three of the four assembly districts that the Democrats hold would be threatened. AD27, AD30, and AD31 all went for the Democrat candidate with less than 61% of the vote, leaving only AD24 which was won by the Democrats with 68% of the vote. Though it is unlikely that the Democrats won’t regain early voter pluralities in many of these seats, as it stands now, the Republicans are leading in 11 total assembly districts (with the 12th possibly going to the Independent American Party candidate) that the Democrats won in 2012; this would result in the Democrats having been one seat away from a supermajority in the Assembly, to Republicans being one seat away in the Assembly, assuming the IAP candidate does in fact and chooses to caucus with the Republicans. In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 3621, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 62.3% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 20.2%, and the rural counties with 17.5% of the vote.

     Here are the percentages and comparison with 2008, 2010, and 2012.

Nevada (statewide)

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote* 46.1% 37.2% 16.7%
Early Vote + Absentee* 46.4% 37.2% 16.5%
Total Early 2008 31.6% 51.8% 17.5%
Total Early 2010 40.2% 44.2% 15.7%
Total Early 2012 36.1% 44.5% 19.5%

     The * The Republican heavy rural counties of Carson City, Churchill, Douglas, Esmeralda, Lincoln, Lyon, Mineral, Pershing, and Storey had not reported their Friday totals as of publication.

     The Republican edge in early voting and absentee ballots is about 14% above the Republicans statewide registration deficit of 5%.

Clark County Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 42.0% 40.8% 17.2%
Early Vote + Absentee 42.3% 40.9% 16.8%
Early Vote 2010 37.9% 46.4% 15.8%
Total Early 2008 30.6% 52.0% 17.4%
Total Early 2010 37.4% 46.2% 16.4%
Total Early 2012 32.2% 48.2% 19.6%

     Republican early vote lead (including absentees) is about 14% above their registration deficit of 13%.

Washoe County Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 47.5% 36.7% 15.8%
Early Vote + Absentee 48.0% 36.1% 15.9%
Early Vote 2012 40.7% 42.7% 16.6%
Total Early 2008 35.3% 47.1% 17.5%
Total Early 2010 44.7% 40.3% 15.0%
Total Early 2012 39.9% 40.5% 19.5%

     To summarize: With most of early voting completed, the Republicans are in a very strong position to dominate. While the 8th day of early voting say the Democrats in Clark County shrink the voter lead that the Republicans have, and may continue to do so, that they will have to do much better than the 42 vote advantage they showed on Saturday to overcome the Republican’s lead. What should concern Democrats most is that the Republicans don’t need to carry Clark County to win statewide. What should really concern the Democrats is that they are in jeopardy of loosing the Assembly in addition to the state Senate and 4th Congressional district.< p>

     Let us be reminded of the words of Virgil:

“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”

     Until the next update…

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