After six days of early voting, the Republicans have increased their lead for the fifth consecutive day. Statewide, Republicans lead by 9269 out of 96,041 early voters, and 2291 out of 21,770 absentee ballots returned, for a total lead of 11,560 out of 117,882 votes cast so far. The voter lead for Republicans of 10% is 15% above their statewide registration deficit of 5%. 10% of registered voters have already voted. In 2012, Democrats had a lead in combined early voters of 10% and 26,705 voters.
In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 2,835, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.
In Clark County, Republican’s continue to increase their narrow lead to 738 early voters. When returned absentees are included, their lead increased to 959. This is 14% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, the Democrats led by 9% in Clark County. At this point in 2012, Democrats had a lead of 19%. The turnout in Clark County early voting is 64% of what it was at this point in 2010.
Republicans continue to lead in early voter turnout in the three state Senate districts needed to gain control of the state Senate (SD8, SD9, and SD20), as well as the 4th Congressional district, currently held by Steven Horsford.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2008, 2010, and 2012.
|Early Vote + Absentee||46.7%||36.9%||16.4%|
|Early Vote 2012||36.2%||46.6%||16.8%|
|Total Early 2008||31.6%||51.8%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||40.2%||44.2%||15.7%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.5%|
The Republican edge in early voting and absentee ballots is about 15% above the Republicans statewide registration deficit of 5%.
Clark County Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population
|Early Vote + Absentee||42.3%||40.9%||16.8%|
|Early Vote 2010||37.8%||46.5%||15.7%||Early Vote 2012||31.6%||50.5%||17.9%|
|Total Early 2008||30.6%||52.0%||17.4%|
|Total Early 2010||37.4%||46.2%||16.4%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.6%|
Republican early vote lead (including absentees) is about 14% above their registration deficit of 13%.
Washoe County Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population
|Early Vote + Absentee||48.1%||36.3%||15.6%|
|Early Vote 2012||40.7%||42.9%||16.4%|
|Total Early 2008||35.3%||47.1%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||44.7%||40.3%||15.0%|
|Total Early 2012||39.9%||40.5%||19.5%|
To summarize: With almost half of early voting done, the Republicans are in a very strong position to dominate. While the 2nd week of early voting tends to be heavier, giving the Democrats a chance to overcome the growing Republican voter lead, every day the Democrats do not manage to reverse this trend just makes it that much more difficult to reverse.
Let us be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…