The Political Hat

     It is time for the Democrats to hit the panic button. After the first week (of two) of early voting, the Republicans have increased their lead for the sixth straight day. Statewide, Republicans leady by 10,270 out of 109,773 early votes, and 2518 our of 23,447 absentee ballots returned, for a total lead of 12,788 out of 133,220 votes cast so far, not including seven rural counties that are heavily Republican who have not reported their Friday numbers. The voter lead for Republicans of 10% if 15% above their statewide registration deficit. In 2012, Democrats had a lead in combined early voters of 15%. 11% of registered voters have cast their ballots.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 3,339, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     In Clark County, Republicans continue to increase their lead to 1025 in early voters. When returned absentees are included, their lead increases to 1315. This is 15% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, Democrats led by 8% in Clark County in early voters, while in 2012 they lead by 18%. The turnout in 2014 after the 1st week is 64% of what it was in 2010.

     Of the three County Commissioner races (Seats E, F, and G — all held by Democrats), the Republicans have a early voter edge in both Disctirc F and District G. Since the Democrats have a monopoly on the Clark County Commission, holding all seven seats, so they will control the Commission after the election, even if District E was to flip.

     Perhaps most surprisingly, the Democrats are behind in early voters not just in the key state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) and the 4th Congressional District, but also in the Assembly.

     In Clark County alone, there are nine Assembly seats that the Democrats won in 2012 but are now trailing in early voters to Republicans: AD05, AD08, AD09, AD12, AD21, AD29, AD34, AD35, and AD41. Some of these leads are very narrow, ranging from ½% in AD09 to 10% in AD05. No Assembly seat in Clark County, that the Democrat won in 2012 with less than 61% of the vote, has the Democrats ahead in early voters after the first week of early voting.

     If we extrapolate that 61% dividing line to Washoe, than three of the four assembly districts that the Democrats hold would be threatened. AD27, AD30, and AD13 all went for the Democrat candidate with less than 61% of the vote, leaving only AD24 which was won by the Democrats with 68% of the vote. Though it is unlikely that the Democrats won’t regain early voter pluralities in many of these seats, as it stands now, the Republicans are leading in 12 total assembly districts that the Democrats won in 2012; this would result in the Democrats having been one seat away from a supermajority in the Assembly, to Republicans being one seat away in the Assembly. In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 3,339, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 61.3% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 20.7%, and the rural counties with 18.0% of the vote.

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     After six days of early voting, the Republicans have increased their lead for the fifth consecutive day. Statewide, Republicans lead by 9269 out of 96,041 early voters, and 2291 out of 21,770 absentee ballots returned, for a total lead of 11,560 out of 117,882 votes cast so far. The voter lead for Republicans of 10% is 15% above their statewide registration deficit of 5%. 10% of registered voters have already voted. In 2012, Democrats had a lead in combined early voters of 10% and 26,705 voters.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 2,835, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     In Clark County, Republican’s continue to increase their narrow lead to 738 early voters. When returned absentees are included, their lead increased to 959. This is 14% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, the Democrats led by 9% in Clark County. At this point in 2012, Democrats had a lead of 19%. The turnout in Clark County early voting is 64% of what it was at this point in 2010.

     Republicans continue to lead in early voter turnout in the three state Senate districts needed to gain control of the state Senate (SD8, SD9, and SD20), as well as the 4th Congressional district, currently held by Steven Horsford.

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     After five days of early voting, the Republicans’ statewide raw vote lead continues to increase, with their lead being 9705 out of 99,220 cast, including absentee ballots returned. The voter lead for Republicans of 10% is 15% above their statewide registration deficit of 5%. 8% of registered voters have already voted. In 2012, the Democrats lead in combined early voters and returned absentee ballots by 22,557 statewide.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted). The Republicans currently have a lead of 2500, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots returned.

     In Clark County, Republicans continue to increase their narrow lead, which is now 698 early voters. When returned absentees are included, their lead rides to 898. At this point in 2010, the Democrats led by 5109, or 8%, in Clark county. In 2012, the Democrats had a lead of 28,707 early voters and 1810 in returned absentee ballots. The turnout in Clark County is 64% of what is was in 2010.

     Republicans continue to lead in early voter turnout in the three state Senate districts needed to gain control of the state Senate (SD8, SD9, and SD20), as well as the 4th Congressional district, currently held by Steven Horsford.

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     After four days of early voting, the Republicans have a statewide raw voter lead of 7763 out of 79,650 cast, including absentee ballots returned. 7% of registered voters have already voted.The voter lead of 10% for Republicans after the fourth day of early voting shows an increasing lead of 15% above their statewide registration deficit of 5%.

     In Clark County, the Republicans lead for the third day in a row, increasing their lead in early voted to 517 voters. With returned absentees included, that lead grows to 625 voters. The Republicans continue to lead in all counties. In 2010, the Democrats had a lead of 8% at this point in early voting. The overall turnout in Clark County so far had been 30,013, which is 62% of what is was in 2010.

     In two of the three state Senate districts needed to gain control of the state Senate (SD8 and SD20), the Republicans increased their lead. The Democrats narrowed the Republican’s lead in SD9, which the Democrats won by a few hundred votes in a heavily Democrat favored year. In contrast, the 4th Congressional District has had more Republican voters than Democrat voters, despite the huge the Clark County part of the district being heavily Democrat.

     In Washoe county, they have a lead of 13%. At this point, the Republicans lead in early voting and absentees in every single county in Nevada.

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     After three days of early voting, the Republicans have a statewide raw voter lead of 5261 votes out of 57,910 cast, including absentee ballots returned. 5% of registered voters have already voted. The voter lead of 9% for Republicans after the third day of early voting shows in increasing lead and a lead of 14% above their statewide registration deficit of 5%.

     In Clark County, the Republicans lead for the second day in a row, increasing their lead in early votes to 220 voters. With returned absentees included, that lead grows to 299 voters. The Republicans now lead in all counties. In 2010, the Democrats had a lead 8% in Clark County, while in 2012, their lead was 20%.

     The overall voter turnout in Clark County so far has been 27,897, which is 60% of the turnout in 2010. As it stands, the Republican turn-out in the thee state Senate races that will determine the control of the state Senate (SD8, SD9, SD20) show an early voter lead of between 6–12 %. The Republicans are less than 200 votes behind the Democrats in the Clark County portion of the 4th Congressional district. Since the 1/4 of the district outside of Clark County is heavily Republican, with Nye county alone having a Republican voter edge in early voting above 300, the 4th Congressional district is looking like a likely Republican pick-up. At this point, the Democrats may very lose not only every single partisan statewide office, but even the Assembly, where they currently have a majority of 27 to 15.

     In Washoe county, they have a lead of 14%. At this point, the Republicans lead in early voting and absentees in every single county in Nevada.

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