The Political Hat

     With only two day left of early voting, the Republicans continue to build an unprecedented early voter lead: Statewide, Republicans yet again increased their lead to 17,575 our of 205,153 early voters, 3538 out of 32,172 absentee ballots returned, for a total of 21,122 out of 237,325 votes cast so far. Only 18% of registered voters have voted so far. The Republican voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide voter registration deficit of 5%. The Republicans lead has increased every day of early voting so far.

     In Clark County, The Republicans early vote lead fell from 2336 to 1923, as did their advantage in absentee ballots returned, from 356 to 255. Democrats have led in Clark County only three of the first twelve days, or ¹/₄ of the time. With only two days left, the Republicans still have a voeter lead of 2178 in Clark County, and even if the Democrats win the last two days, they may not be able to overcome the lead that the Republicans have built up. Their 1% lead is 14% over their registration deficit of 13%, which is in contrast to the 7% lead the Democrats had in 2010. Voter turnout is 65% of what it was in 2010.

     Despite the Republican’s lead shrinking in Clark County, they continue to lead in Commission Districts F and G, the three state Senate districts needed to retake the state Senate (SD08, SD09, SD20), and in nine Assembly districts that the Democrats won in 2012. Additionally, Republicans still have a lead in the Clark County portion of the 4^th Congressional District, and an over 2000 voter lead in the rural counties that make up the rest of the District.

     With Republican leading in votes in those nine Assembly districts that Democrats won in 2012, Democrats are behind in every single seat they won in Clark County 61% or less of the vote. If we extrapolate this dividing line to the four Assembly seats in Washoe county held by Democrats, we find that three of the four Assembly seats in Washoe county that elected Democrats in 2012 were won with 61% or less of the vote. Combined with the nine seats from Clark County, the Democrats could lose up to eleven seats to the Republicans, and perhaps even an additional seat to an Independent American Party candidate.

     It is possible for the Democrats to regain leads in many of these Assembly districts, but Republicans will likely win many of them. The question is “how many”? In two Assembly districts, AD10 and AD34, the Democrat candidates were ruled ineligible. The Republican have a voter lead in AD34, but are behind by 13% in AD10. Unless the Republicans win a clear majority in the Assembly, the Democrats might seat both of the ineligible Democrat candidates. The Republicans would need to win seven seats in total to win outright. If they only win six, the Assembly would be split 21-21, with the Democrat from AD10 (and potentially AD34) voting until and if the Assembly decides to not seat them. If the Republicans win five or less, then the Democrats will seat them as they did Andrew Martin, who was also ruled ineligible in 2012.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 5356 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 47,248 or 11%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 62.7% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 19.9%, and the rural counties with 17.3% of the vote.

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     After over ³/₄ of early voting completed, The Republican wave continues to grow into a tsunami: Statewide, Republicans increased their voter lead to 16,451 out of 181,673 early voters, 3242 out of 28,668 absentee ballots returned, for a total of 19,683 out of 210,3431 votes cast so far. About 18% of registered voters have voted so far. The voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide registration deficit. The Republicans early voter lead has increased for the 10^th straight day.

     Democrats rely on an early voter advantage to offset the relative Republican advantage on election day. With their being nearly 20,000 votes underwater so far, the only hope the Democrats have is to dominate the last few days of early voting and turnout with a historically unprecedented lead on Election day. So far, the Democrats have not demonstrated the ability to turnout Democrats.

     In Clark County, Republicans have yet again increased their early voter lead to 2336 out of 115,400 early votes. Returned absentee ballots increase that lead further by 356 out of 16,496, resulting in the republicans having an overall voter lead of 2692 out of 131,896 votes cast so far. This represents a 2% lead, which is 15% over their voter registration deficit of 13%, which is in contrast to the 7% lead the Democrats had in 2010. Voter turnout is 65% of what it was in 2010.

     This lead in Clark County for Republicans is having ramifications from the top of the ballot to the bottom. Republicans now have 4-digit leads in both Commission districts F and G, while the Democrats only lead in the heavily Democrat district E. With the Republicans ever-increasing countywide lead, they will likely pick-up some countywide executive offices. In both cases, the Democrats monopoly will be broken.

     In the 4^th Congressional District, the Republicans now have an outright lead in Clark County of 189. While this may not seem like much, one quarter of the district is in the rural counties (which is comprised of part of Lyon county and all of White Pine, Nye, Esmeralda, Mineral and Lincoln counties) that vote very heavily for Republicans. Overall, the Republicans have a four digit lead in early voting districtwide. Rep. Steven Horsford should start looking for a new job.

     Republicans continue to dominate state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) they need to pick-up the state Senate, with double digit percent leads in SD8 and SD20. Additionally, in SD21, the Republicans reduced the Democrats lead in SD21 to 443 with 1132 votes cast by non-partisans, Libertarians, and Independent American Party voters. At this point, the state Senate seems lost, particularly when the Democrats need to use all their resources to save Ross Miller, who is running for Attorney General, and surprisingly their Assembly majority.

     Republicans lead with early voters in eight Assembly districts Clark County that Democrats won in 2012; this lead extends to nine seats when returned absentee ballots are included. In AD12, Republicans lead despite there being no Republican on the ballot, with the Democrat facing off against an Independent American Party candidate. All other of the nine seats feature a straight Republican vs. Democrat contest except for AD21, where there is also a Libertarian Party candidate.

     With Republican regaining the lead in votes cast (both early voting and returned absentee ballots) in AD08 and AD12, Democrats are behind in every single seat they won in Clark County 61% or less of the vote. If we extrapolate this dividing line to the four Assembly seats in Washoe county held by Democrats, we find that three of the four Assembly seats in Washoe county that elected Democrats in 2012 were won with 61% or less of the vote. Combined with the nine seats from Clark County, the Democrats could lose up to eleven seats to the Republicans, and perhaps even an additional seat to an Independent American Party candidate. It also goes to show that the Republicans should always field candidates, even for offices that may at the time seem like a lost cause.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 4834 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 41,952 or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 62.7% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 19.9%, and the rural counties with 17.3% of the vote.

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     With over ²/₃ of the early voting days over, the unprecidented Republican was continues to grow. After the tenth day of early voting, Republicans increased their lead 14,186 out of 159,482 early voters, 2980 out of 26,908 returned absentee ballots, for a total of 17,166 out of 186,390 votes cast. The voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide registration deficit. The Republicans early voter lead has increased for the 9^th straight day.

     For Democrats to win, they have to build a huge voter lead in Clark County to offset the Republican rural counties, and win Washoe county. With the rural counties voting at a much higher rate than Clark, combined with the Republicans’ heavy lead in Washoe, the Democrats voter deficit in Clark County is a grim sign for them

     In Clark County, Republicans have had one of their best days yet, with the increase of their early voter lead to 1769 out of 101,810 early votes. Returned absentee ballots increase their lead by an additional 325 voters out of 16,126, resulting in the Republicans having an overall voter lead of 2,094 out of 115,938 votes cast so far. This 1% lead for Republicans is 14% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, the Democrats led in early voting by 8%. Voter turnout is 65% of what it was in 2010.

     Republicans continue to increase their leads in Clark County Commission districts F and G. A Republican win in either seat would give the Republicans their first seat on the Clark County Commission in six year, which currently has all seven seats held by Democrats. Only in district E, are the Democrats ahead. Combined with the countywide voter lead, many of the countywide executive offices will likely flip to Republican control.

     The 4^th Congressional District is looking to be a take-over by Republicans at this point, with Republicans winning early voters over the past two days in the Democrat heavy Clark County portion of the district. Incumbent Democrat Steven Horsford is ahead in the Clark County portion of the 4^th by only 86 votes! It is not unconceivable that he could be behind after early voting ends in Clark County. Without that edge, the heavily Republican rural parts of the district (which is comprised of part of Lyon county and all of White Pine, Nye, Esmeralda, Mineral and Lincoln counties) will not only Horsford to lose, but lose in a landslide.

     The Republicans’ lead has shrunk slightly in the key state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) they need to pick-up the state Senate, though they retain a sizable lead in SD8 and SD20, and a smaller one in SD9. Additionally, in SD21, the Democrats are ahead by only 446 early voters, with 1052 votes cast by non-partisans, Libertarians, and Independent American Party voters.

     The Republicans lead in seven Assembly districts that Democrats won in 2012 in Clark County. This would be enough to flip control of the Assembly to the Republicans. The Republicans lost their early voter edge in AD12 by 9 voters, where there is no Republican on the ballot (the Democrat is up against an Independent American Party candidate). Republicans increased their lead in AD05, AD21, AD29, AD34, AD35, and AD41. Republicans lost ground in AD09, but maintain a slim lead.

     Democrats lead in no Clark County Assembly districts where the Democrats did not win at least 60% of the vote (59.51% in AD12). The seat with the next lowest Democrat percentage of the vote was AD34 where the Democrat won 57.26% of the vote in 2012 with a margin of over 3000 votes, but where they are behind in early voting by 226 early voters. If we extrapolate this dividing line to the four Assembly seats in Washoe county held by Democrats, we find that two of the seats are below the 57.26% level: AD30 and AD31 which went for the Democrats in 2012 with 57.0% and 52% of the vote. Additionally, AD27 went for the Democrats in 2012 with 57.8% of the vote, which is above the 57.26% for AD34 but below the 59.51% in AD12. So, in addition to the seven Clark County Assembly districts with the Republican early voter lead, two to three Assembly districts in Washoe county may flip as well, giving the Republicans 24 or 25 of the Assembly seats compared to 18 or 17 seats for the Democrats.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 4215 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 36,334, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 63.3% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 19.5%, and the rural counties with 17.2% of the vote.

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     With the conclusion of the 9^th day of early voting, the Republicans have yet again increased their lead by 12,200 out of 111,811 early voters, 2601 out of 24,569 absentee ballots returned, for a total of 14,801 out of 165,481 votes cast so far. 14% of registered voters have voted so far. The voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide registration deficit. The Republicans early voter lead has increased for the 8^th straight day.

     In Clark County, the Republicans managed to win early voters on the 9^th day, and have again increased their lead to 1151 early voters out of 89,493. When returned absentees are included, that lead increases to 1438. This 1% lead for Republicans is 14% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, the Democrats led in early voting by 11,858 votes, or about 9%. Voter turnout is 65% of what it was in 2010.

     Republicans continue to lead in County Commission districts F and G, though their lead in District F decreased by 25 votes. In District E, they continue to fall behind. The Republicans are in good shape to pick-up those two Commission seats in addition to some county-wide executive offices.

     In the 4^th Congressional District, Democrat incumbent Steven Horsford is ahead by only 336 early voters in Clark County. On Sunday, there were 54 more Republicans voters than Democrat voters in the 4^th Congressional District, with Republicans winning with 1234 early voters compared to 1180 Democrat voters. The rural are heavily Republicans, and Nye county alone has given a Republcian early voter advantage of over 1000.

     The Republicans are increasing their leads in the key state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) they need to pick-up the state Senate. Additionally, in SD21, the Democrats are ahead by only 420 early voters, with 980 votes cast by non-partisans, Libertarians, and Independent American Party voters.

     The Republicans continue to lead in eight Assembly seats in Clark County where Democrats won in 2012. The Republicans have fallen behind in AD08 by 17 votes, though 451 non-partisans, Libertarians, and Independent American Party voters have also voted. In those eight Assembly districts, Republicans increased their voter lead (in AD09 the voter lead remained the same). In seven of those eight districts, Republicans have a candidate running, and winning those seven seats would give the Assembly to the Republicans with a clear majority for the first time since the ’80’s. In AD12, there is no Republican, but there is an Independent American Party candidate. Additionally in AD21, there is a Libertarian Party candidate who will likely funnel votes the Republican would have otherwise gotten.

     No Assembly seat in Clark County, that the Democrat won in 2012 with less than 61% of the vote, has the Democrats ahead in early voters after eight days of early voting. If we extrapolate that 61% dividing line to Washoe, than three of the four assembly districts that the Democrats hold would be threatened. AD27, AD30, and AD31 all went for the Democrat candidate with less than 61% of the vote, leaving only AD24 which was won by the Democrats with 68% of the vote. Though it is unlikely that the Democrats won’t regain early voter pluralities in many of these seats, as it stands now, the Republicans are leading in 11 total assembly districts (with the 12^th possibly going to the Independent American Party candidate) that the Democrats won in 2012; this would result in the Democrats having been one seat away from a supermajority in the Assembly, to Republicans being one seat away in the Assembly, assuming the IAP candidate does in fact and chooses to caucus with the Republicans. In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 3749 early voters and returned absentee ballot out of 32,450, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 63.3% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 19.6%, and the rural counties with 17.1% of the vote.

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