After the second day of early voting, the Republicans have a statewide raw voter lead of 2775 votes out of 35889 cast, including absentee ballots returned. 3% of registered voters have already voted.
The voter lead of 8% for the Republicans is 13% above than their voter registration deficit of 5%. This increase in their early vote lead is particularly surprising when one considers that the rural counties did not have early voting on Sunday.
In Clark County, the Republican actually lead in early voting by 15 voters. In 2010 the Democrats had a 8% early voter lead of 2616 voters. In 2012 it was 16% with over 13,000 more Democrat voters than Republicans. With a registration edge of over 100,000 voters in Clark County, the turnout so far will be devastating to the Democrats
The overall voter turnout in Clark County was 17,512. This is much lower than the 29,633 voters who turned out on the first two days of early voting in 2010. The Democrats voter lead in Clark county after the first day of early voting in 2010 was ca 9%, while it a bare Republican plurality in 2014. If this holds up through the first week of voting, the Republicans will not only sweep all partisan statewide offices and the state Senate, but may even be able to pick-up the Assembly and the 4th Congressional district.
The Republicans currently lead in the three state Senate races (SD8, SD9, SD20) that will determine control of the chamber.
In Washoe county, the Republicans are ahead by 1070 votes out of 7910 votes for absentee and early voting, with a 679 vote lead in early voting alone. Washoe has been the bellwether county in Nevada, with no one winning statewide without winning Washoe since Reid’s very narrow win over Ensign in 1998. With Clark County a tie, and the GOP comfortably ahead after the first two days, combined with the expected blowout for the GOP from the rural counties, the Republicans remain in a strong starting position.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2008, 2010, and 2012.
|Early Vote + Absentee||44.4%||36.7%||16.1%|
|Early Vote 2012||34.1%||49.9%||16.1%|
|Total Early 2008||31.6%||51.8%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||40.2%||44.2%||15.7%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.5%|
*Excludes votes from Carson City which did not break down the early voters by political party. Carson City had 594 early voters and 411 absentees reported so far.
The Republican edge in early voting and absentee ballots is about 13% above the Republicans statewide registration deficit of 5%.
Clark County Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population
|Early Vote + Absentee||41.6%||41.7%||16.7%|
|Early Vote 2010||38.2%||47.0%||14.8%|
|Early Vote 2012||30.6%||53.1%||16.4%|
|Total Early 2008||30.6%||52.0%||17.4%|
|Total Early 2010||37.4%||46.2%||16.4%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.6%|
Democratic early vote lead (including absentees) is about 12% below their registration advantage of 13%.
Washoe County Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population
|Early Vote + Absentee*||48.5%||35.0%||16.5%|
|Early Vote 2012||37.6%||47.4%||14.9%|
|Total Early 2008||35.3%||47.1%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||44.7%||40.3%||15.0%|
|Total Early 2012||39.9%||40.5%||19.5%|
Republican early vote lead (including absentees) is about 10% above their registration advantage of 3%.
To summarize: The Republicans are off to a strong head start.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…