After the second to last day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 45K raw voters over Republicans; this shrinks to less than 40K when absentees that have been turned-in already are included.
After 13 days of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 76K in Clark County. The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 79% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 11%, relative to four years ago. This results in a 71% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting. Absentees are coming in at about 1/7 of the early votes. At this 71% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 15%, or about 66K in Clark County. Assuming that early votes are about 70% of the total vote, and with an 80% turnout, this would give a lead for the Democrats in Clark County at about 75K, if a similar reduction in advantage for election day vote advantage is applied and assuming that 2012 trends like in 2008 (with Democrat vote advantage shrunk to 71%, and 112% of the early voters).
Washoe county continues to trend towards being an overall wash (pun intended) with a less than 1000 vote difference between Republicans and Democrats. The strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties is the only thing that is blunting the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 60K. With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K (They are already +17K for the Republicans so far) in favor of the Republicans total, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 50K. With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just over 5%. This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).
This is assuming that 2012 will play out similar to 2008 when it comes down to relative advantage between early votes, absentee votes, and election day votes. For example, the advantage for the Democrats in early voting (22% on the 13th day of early voting), dropped to 14½% by election day. Perhaps a more ominous comparison then 2008 is actually 2010. In 2010 the early vote spread matched up with the total vote spread, being 8%. If 2012 follows 2010, than the Democrats would a voter lead in Clark County of over 100 votes, with a total statewide lead of 75K votes, all else equal. This would result in not only an Obama victory, but could clench the Senate seat for Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).
Ironically, even though 2010 was a good year for Republicans in Nevada (Harry Reid’s reelection aside), the turnout trends would be worse if applied to 2012. If it is true what the RNC is saying, and the Dems have burned through far more of their high propensity voters, than a 2008 trend might be the more plausible one.
Nevada (statewide)
| GOP | Dem | Ind. | |
| Early Vote* | 36.5% | 44.5% | 18.8% |
| Early Vote + Absentee | 37.4% | 43.9% | 18.6% |
| Total Early 2008 | 31.6% | 51.8% | 17.5% |
| Total Early 2010 | 40.2% | 44.2% | 15.7% |
Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees is about ½% less than the Democrats statewide registration advantage of 7%.
Clark County
Home of Las Vegas & 70% of state’s population
| GOP | Dem | Ind. | |
| Early Vote | 32.6% | 48.2% | 19.2% |
| Early Vote (1st Week in 2008) | 30.4% | 52.4% | 18.2% |
| Early Vote (1st Week in 2010) | 37.8% | 46.0% | 16.2% |
| Early Vote + Absentee | 33.6% | 47.6% | 18.8% |
| Total Early 2008 | 30.6% | 52.0% | 17.4% |
| Total Early 2010 | 37.4% | 46.2% | 16.4% |
Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees for Clark County is 1% below the Democrats registration advantage of 15%.
Washoe County
Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population
| GOP | Dem | Ind. | |
| Early Vote | 40.3% | 40.9% | 18.8% |
| Early Vote + Absentee* | 40.9% | 40.5% | 18.6% |
| Total Early 2008 | 35.3% | 47.1% | 17.5% |
| Total Early 2010 | 44.7% | 40.3% | 15.0% |
Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees in Washoe is ½% below the even registration between Republicans and Democrats.
To summarize, not as bad as in 2008, but not as good at 2010. The Democrats raw vote lead after the first week of early voting (and probably 60% of the vote) is substantial, and the last day should result in perhaps three thousand added to the Democrats total. Obama seems at this point likely to win Nevada, though at a substantially narrowed margin. This would mean that he would be the first person since Harry Reid’s win over John Ensign in 1998 to win statewide without carrying Washoe county, and with substantially more votes than the less than 1000 victory Reid ended up with. Heller’s chances are dependent on a strong Obama-Heller voter block that can’t stand that Auton-American Shelley Berkley, which may prove significant. If the Republicans manage to win the election day vote, convince many Democrats to vote for Romney and Heller, and win the independents, then they may still have a shot.
Let us be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…
