Fifty years ago today, Ronald Reagan gave one of the most quintessential speeches of the modern conservative movement, his speech on behalf of Barry Goldwater, “A Time for Choosing.”
While some numerical particulars have changed over the past fifty years, that “Rendezvous with Destiny” speech is as true today as it was back then.
“The Speech” in full:
With the 8th day of early voting completed, the Republicans were yet again abe to increase their lead in early voters. Statewide, Republicans lead by 11,456 out of 111,518 early votes cast, and 2583 votes out of 24484 early absentee ballots returned, for a total of 14,019 out of 151,888 votes cast so far, not including nine rural counties that have not reported their Saturday numbers. The voter lead of 9% is 14% above their statewide registration deficit. 13% of registered voters have voted so far.
In Clark County, the Democrats had more early voters on Saturday then the Republicans… by 42 voters. However, the Republicans still lead by 984 early voters. When returned absentees are included, that lead increases to 1271. This 1% lead for Republicans is 14% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, Democrats led by 9%. After eight days, voter turn-out in 55% of what it was in 2010.
Of the three County Commissioner races (Seats E, F, and G — all held by Democrats), the Republicans have increased their lead on Saturday in both District F and District G, while the Democrats increased their lead in District E. The Republicans are in good shape to pick-up those two Commission seats in addition to some county-wide executive offices.
In the 4th Congressional District, the Republicans continue to lead in early voter turn out, with the Democrats lead of only 389 in the Democrat heavy portion of the district in Clark County more than compensated for in the rural counties, with Nye county alone giving the Republicans a lead of over 1000 early voters.
The Republicans are increasing their leads in the key state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) they need to pick-up the state Senate.
Of the nine Assembly seats that the Democrats won in 2012, but were behind in early voters in 2014 after the first week, all nine continue to have Republicans leading in early voters. Three seats say the Republicans lead shrink: AD08, AD12, and AD21. But in six of the seats, the Republicans have increased their lead: AD05, AD09, AD29, AD34, AD35, and AD41. Six seats would be sufficient to split the Assembly 21 to 21.
However, three of these nine seats are not simple Republican vs. Democrats matches. In AD12, there is no Republican candidate, but there is an Independent American Party (IAP) candidate. Could we see the first IAP elected Assembly member? In AD21, there is also a Liberetarian Party member running, though any votes won from Republicans could be offset by IAP and non-partisans voting for the Republican. AD34 is the seat where the Democrat candidate Meghan Smith was declared ineligible to run, leaving Republican Victoria Seaman the only legitimate candidate, despite Smith remaining on the ballot. If Seaman can win the seat outright, the chances of which are bolstered by signs declaring Smith’s ineligibility, than any fear of the Democrat being seated would disappear.
No Assembly seat in Clark County, that the Democrat won in 2012 with less than 61% of the vote, has the Democrats ahead in early voters after eight days of early voting. If we extrapolate that 61% dividing line to Washoe, than three of the four assembly districts that the Democrats hold would be threatened. AD27, AD30, and AD31 all went for the Democrat candidate with less than 61% of the vote, leaving only AD24 which was won by the Democrats with 68% of the vote. Though it is unlikely that the Democrats won’t regain early voter pluralities in many of these seats, as it stands now, the Republicans are leading in 11 total assembly districts (with the 12th possibly going to the Independent American Party candidate) that the Democrats won in 2012; this would result in the Democrats having been one seat away from a supermajority in the Assembly, to Republicans being one seat away in the Assembly, assuming the IAP candidate does in fact and chooses to caucus with the Republicans. In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 3621, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.
Clark County makes up 62.3% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 20.2%, and the rural counties with 17.5% of the vote.
News of the Week for October 26th, 2014
It is time for the Democrats to hit the panic button. After the first week (of two) of early voting, the Republicans have increased their lead for the sixth straight day. Statewide, Republicans leady by 10,270 out of 109,773 early votes, and 2518 our of 23,447 absentee ballots returned, for a total lead of 12,788 out of 133,220 votes cast so far, not including seven rural counties that are heavily Republican who have not reported their Friday numbers. The voter lead for Republicans of 10% if 15% above their statewide registration deficit. In 2012, Democrats had a lead in combined early voters of 15%. 11% of registered voters have cast their ballots.
In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 3,339, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.
In Clark County, Republicans continue to increase their lead to 1025 in early voters. When returned absentees are included, their lead increases to 1315. This is 15% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, Democrats led by 8% in Clark County in early voters, while in 2012 they lead by 18%. The turnout in 2014 after the 1st week is 64% of what it was in 2010.
Of the three County Commissioner races (Seats E, F, and G — all held by Democrats), the Republicans have a early voter edge in both Disctirc F and District G. Since the Democrats have a monopoly on the Clark County Commission, holding all seven seats, so they will control the Commission after the election, even if District E was to flip.
Perhaps most surprisingly, the Democrats are behind in early voters not just in the key state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) and the 4th Congressional District, but also in the Assembly.
In Clark County alone, there are nine Assembly seats that the Democrats won in 2012 but are now trailing in early voters to Republicans: AD05, AD08, AD09, AD12, AD21, AD29, AD34, AD35, and AD41. Some of these leads are very narrow, ranging from ½% in AD09 to 10% in AD05. No Assembly seat in Clark County, that the Democrat won in 2012 with less than 61% of the vote, has the Democrats ahead in early voters after the first week of early voting.
If we extrapolate that 61% dividing line to Washoe, than three of the four assembly districts that the Democrats hold would be threatened. AD27, AD30, and AD13 all went for the Democrat candidate with less than 61% of the vote, leaving only AD24 which was won by the Democrats with 68% of the vote. Though it is unlikely that the Democrats won’t regain early voter pluralities in many of these seats, as it stands now, the Republicans are leading in 12 total assembly districts that the Democrats won in 2012; this would result in the Democrats having been one seat away from a supermajority in the Assembly, to Republicans being one seat away in the Assembly. In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 3,339, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.
Clark County makes up 61.3% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 20.7%, and the rural counties with 18.0% of the vote.
Despite having multiple official languages, Belgium does not have a translation for the word “irony,” it would seem. Presenting Belgium’s new “Minister for Social Affairs and Health“:
Satire is Dead: Belgium's new Minister of Health #truestory pic.twitter.com/xKhQWGesyn
— David Burge (@iowahawkblog) October 13, 2014
After six days of early voting, the Republicans have increased their lead for the fifth consecutive day. Statewide, Republicans lead by 9269 out of 96,041 early voters, and 2291 out of 21,770 absentee ballots returned, for a total lead of 11,560 out of 117,882 votes cast so far. The voter lead for Republicans of 10% is 15% above their statewide registration deficit of 5%. 10% of registered voters have already voted. In 2012, Democrats had a lead in combined early voters of 10% and 26,705 voters.
In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 2,835, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.
In Clark County, Republican’s continue to increase their narrow lead to 738 early voters. When returned absentees are included, their lead increased to 959. This is 14% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, the Democrats led by 9% in Clark County. At this point in 2012, Democrats had a lead of 19%. The turnout in Clark County early voting is 64% of what it was at this point in 2010.
Republicans continue to lead in early voter turnout in the three state Senate districts needed to gain control of the state Senate (SD8, SD9, and SD20), as well as the 4th Congressional district, currently held by Steven Horsford.
Steven Crowder takes on the so-called “Rape Culture” and contrasts it with the evil that is actual rape.
After five days of early voting, the Republicans’ statewide raw vote lead continues to increase, with their lead being 9705 out of 99,220 cast, including absentee ballots returned. The voter lead for Republicans of 10% is 15% above their statewide registration deficit of 5%. 8% of registered voters have already voted. In 2012, the Democrats lead in combined early voters and returned absentee ballots by 22,557 statewide.
In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted). The Republicans currently have a lead of 2500, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots returned.
In Clark County, Republicans continue to increase their narrow lead, which is now 698 early voters. When returned absentees are included, their lead rides to 898. At this point in 2010, the Democrats led by 5109, or 8%, in Clark county. In 2012, the Democrats had a lead of 28,707 early voters and 1810 in returned absentee ballots. The turnout in Clark County is 64% of what is was in 2010.
Republicans continue to lead in early voter turnout in the three state Senate districts needed to gain control of the state Senate (SD8, SD9, and SD20), as well as the 4th Congressional district, currently held by Steven Horsford.
In 2012, a Democrat, Andrew Martin, who ran for the Assembly was ruled ineligible due to not living inside the district. Due to the judge’s ruling occurring after early voting had begun, he remained on the ballot and won. The Assembly, controlled by Democrats, decided to seat him despite his not having been legally elected. He is now running for state Controller.
This year, Democrats tried that trick again. Fortunately, a judge ruled the Democrat Meghan Smith ineligible before early voting started. However:
“Although Smith is ineligible, her name will stay on the ballot because state law doesn’t allow changes after the fourth Friday in June before the election.
“Under state law, if Smith were to get more votes than [Republican candidate Victoria] Seaman, the Assembly would pick someone to fill the seat. And that someone could be her.”
After four days of early voting, the Republicans have a statewide raw voter lead of 7763 out of 79,650 cast, including absentee ballots returned. 7% of registered voters have already voted.The voter lead of 10% for Republicans after the fourth day of early voting shows an increasing lead of 15% above their statewide registration deficit of 5%.
In Clark County, the Republicans lead for the third day in a row, increasing their lead in early voted to 517 voters. With returned absentees included, that lead grows to 625 voters. The Republicans continue to lead in all counties. In 2010, the Democrats had a lead of 8% at this point in early voting. The overall turnout in Clark County so far had been 30,013, which is 62% of what is was in 2010.
In two of the three state Senate districts needed to gain control of the state Senate (SD8 and SD20), the Republicans increased their lead. The Democrats narrowed the Republican’s lead in SD9, which the Democrats won by a few hundred votes in a heavily Democrat favored year. In contrast, the 4th Congressional District has had more Republican voters than Democrat voters, despite the huge the Clark County part of the district being heavily Democrat.
In Washoe county, they have a lead of 13%. At this point, the Republicans lead in early voting and absentees in every single county in Nevada.
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