It’s prediction time, yet again… My “official” predictions for the 2024 election are below. There are plenty of perfunctory notes and caveats, especially this year. First and foremost is the skepticism over polling this year. Pollsters may have not been able to get a true representative sample of voters. For most normal people, the election histrionics and fear-mongering has caused them to tune out. I treat polls with a pinch of salt unless I have been given reason by those I trust.
The 2022 midterms showed that people were tired of the performative MAGA candidates and fearful over the end of Roe v. Wade. There are plenty of initiatives on plenty of ballots that could bring out those some voters who favor the right to abortion, but this will be blunted by time and the lack of The Handmaid’s Tale future materializing. While there is still plenty of Trumpian candidates, people tuning out the election might blunt the negative effect they had in 2022. Additionally, time heals all wounds and Trump has been out of sight and out of mind… and doesn’t represent the incumbent party. Many people are unhappy over the direction of the country over the past four years, but ultimately it will come down to if the moderate median voters in the swing states are unhappy enough to vote in the man they voted out in 2020 and continued to reject by proxy in 2024.
The Presidential race this year has been less of election campaigns and more a game of chicken where each side has tried to get a low as possible while ending up only second worst. If anyone could beat out Trump in a race to the bottom, it’s Kamala Harris. The probability seems wide, but it’s probably rather narrow.
So…
