The Political Hat

The sign you shouldn’t make me tap.

     Of all the elections for decades that your humble author has experienced, this one feels different.   Perhaps we’re on the verge of some epochal political realignment, or perhaps the irrational has just drowned out the sensible. Either which way, there has been no clear evidence in prior actual election results, so what will happen is not as clear as many are making out out to be. Many will be right not because the reasoning behind their predictions was right, but despite said reasoning—much like continental drift.

     However, there are at least a few things that are likely to be true after election day:

1. Both sides will misinterpret the election outcome;
2. Whoever wins will likely overplay their hand and overreach bigly; and
3. Whoever loses will likely be in a strong position in 2026 and 2028 (though they’ll be more likely to screw that up somehow).

     But beyond that, making predictions based on past results is iffy at best. Is an orgy of black swans event upon us—one so great that it is making 2016 seem a continuation of normal when it comes to Presidential elections?   Or is this just a combination of the irrational exuberance (or dismay) from an echo chamber divorced from a silent majority? One thing, though, seems certain: Something is different this year.

     Perhaps one of the almost unsettling differences is that it seems that for most people, the election is a non-event. Most people just aren’t talking about it Oh, this isn’t just low information voters and “normies” not being engaged until Summer if over, but an almost complete lack of any outward acknowledgement that a contentious major election is upon us.   It seems that to the terminally online and professional pundit class, the election is in hyperdrive and everyone is bursting with political energy. There is an increased energy overall in this election, but it is coming from an exponentially increased fervor from a logarithmically decreasing number of voices, leaving more and more people sick and tired before the election season even began! How much of polling is being affected by these voters refusing to engage at all, including with pollsters, to a degree far greater than in past elections to a degree that makes this election seem “off” as a result?

     Perhaps all that most are seeing politically are the ardent few shadow puppeteers in Plato’s cave, and not the great many disengaged from any such shenanigans.

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