Since the election changes brought in the wake of the Covid lockdowns, there are only two general elections in Nevada, and only one undertaken during a midterm. While comparisons can be made, the numbers from 2022 are not, so far, reflective of trends in 2026.
Let us look at where things stand after the end of in-person early voting in Nevada. While in-person early voting now completed, mail ballots are still coming in, and will into next week.
N.B. The numbers are accurate as of time of retrieval, which will vary throughout the day.
Statewide
Nevada’s early votes are split between in-person early voting and mail ballots. As of the time of writing, The Republicans have an in-person early voter lead of ca 8K voters; this number will not grow since in-person early voting has ended. In contrast, the Democrats have a mail ballot lead of over 50K, which will only grow significantly as the late arriving ballots arrive today (Saturday before the election) and through Tuesday for all mail ballots, and through most of the rest of the week for mail ballots not found to have been cast after the end of the election. Over all, the Democrats have at present a voter lead of over 40K. While we don’t know how many more mail ballots will be coming, but Democrats netting >10K is quite likely.
To compare with the 2022 General Election, the Republicans had, for in-person early voting, a 50K early voter lead compared to the 8K they have now. The Democrats had an overall mail ballot lead, including ballots received after the end of in-person early voting, of ca 70K in 2022. As of now, the Democrats have a ca 50K lead in mail ballots that will grow. Of note, mail ballots can also be returned at a limited number of dropboxes as well as at early voting and election day polling locations. Overall, the Democrats twice the raw voter lead now than they had from the total combined in-person early voting and mail voting.
Of note, non-partisan and 3rd party voters in Clark County have cast more mail ballot than Republicans by ca 15K ballot! Including in-person voting, Republicans are only ahead of those “other” voters by ca 8K. This makes those 3rd party and and non-partisan voters critically important, and a noticeable Democrat lean in those voters will spell doom for the Republicans in Nevada, especially down ballot.
What Does This Mean?
There is some hope for the GOP to improve their numbers with Election Day votes, as Victor Joecks noted. Specifically, the Democrat heavy Clark County (home of Las Vegas and ¾ of the state’s population) is showing much lower turnout compared to the rest of the state. Additionally, the Republicans have a higher number of their outstanding high-propensity voters who haven’t voted yet.
That hope for the Republicans does come with some caveats, and is far from a sure thing, especially when it comes to getting what they need to win statewide.
First of all, Democrats are still more likely to vote via mail ballots, which means that many of their high propensity voters might have already voted, but their vote not received or logged in to Clark County yet; alternatively, those Democrats are less trusting of the mail and will drop-off their ballots if there is enough enthusiasm amongst them.
Second of all, the Republicans huge election day turn out in 2022 saw nearly twice as many Republicans vote as Democrats. In contrast, in ‘24 it election day turn out was nearly even. Was that the effect of the difference between Presidential and Midterm elections, or was it a trend of Republicans voting early? Even when only comparing this Midterm Election and the sole previous one under the new universal mail ballot rules, we’ve already seen differences with in-person early voting and mail ballot returns for Republicans and Democrats (e.g. a 3:2 Dem:GOP in-person voter ratio in ‘22 compared to nearly even in ‘26). Republicans would not only have to return to the ‘22 election day margins where their voter total was nearly 30K, but likely exceed them. On election day 2022, the GOP added a net of ca 48K voters with in-person voting. To get the same numerical advantage in ‘26, they’d need to net up ca 70K to get the same margin with what the total in-person early voting and mail ballots so far factored in. With the Democrats expected to get at least 10K or more voters via mail, the Republicans would need ca 80K voter margin with in-person election day voting to get the name numerical spread, and likely more to get an equivalent percentile spread.
It’s possible that the Republicans pull that off, but there is scant little evidence that they’d actually do so. Of note, in 2022 the Republicans, despite having a voter lead over Democrats, while flipping the all important Governor’s seat and picking up the Lt. Gov. and Controller seats, nonetheless lost the U.S. Senate race, the Treasurer race, the Attorney General Race, and the Secretary of State seat, the later of which was an R → D flip.
Non-Statewide Races
Your humble author will only touch briefly on these races, and will rely on Data Point Research for breaking down the numbers.
Barring a total Democratic blowout, Republicans are likely to retain the 2nd Congressional district (NV02) by single digits. To win, the Democrats would likely need to win over nearly 10% of the Republicans voter and win 3rd party and non-partisan voters by an over 3:2 margin. There’s still quite a lot of bad blood over the GOP nominee and the acrimony over the primary and other related accusations, so it will be much closer than this seat has been until now.
When it comes to the state Senate, the Democrats already hold all of the swing seats. This is important because the Republicans currently hold the bare minimum number of seats necissary to prevent the Democrats from having a veto-proof supermajority. Republicans lead in total votes cast, so far, in all of the state Senate seats they hold, with the most competitive of those seats being high single digit Republican voter lead. However, if this election does turnout to be a huge Democratic wave with Republican losing more of their voters than Dems and also losing the non-partisan and 3rd party voters by big margins, SD16 and SD20 could be surprisingly competitive and possibly even flips if there is a big enough Blue Wave due to cross-over and independent votes.
What should really concern Republicans is that in three state Senate seats not up for election until 2028 it is the Democrats who have the raw voter lead: SD5 by 6.7%. SD11 by 13.8%, and SD18 by 3.5%. This would translate, if the Democrats were to win those seats in ‘28, to the Democrats getting over ¾ of the state Senate and locking the Republicans out of any possibility of control over redistricting in 2030, even if the ‘30 election are a Red Tsunami.
In the Assembly, the picture is bleaker for the Republicans. They currently hold 15 out of 42 seats, which is one seat away from the Democrats regaining their veto-proof super-majority they won in ‘22. Republicans are currently behind in total voters in five of those fifteen seats. The seat they picked up in ‘24, AD35, has a raw Democrat voter lead of nearly 10% and ca 1800 voters. That seat is likely lost, and with it the Dems are likely to regain their super-majority in that chamber. The Democrats voter lead in the other four seats (AD2, AD4, AD13, and AD22) range from less than a few hundred votes and 1.2% in AD22 to nearly 800 votes and 3.8% in AD13. This does not mean those four seats are out of reach for Republicans, as a strong enough election day vote could make the difference in those seats, combined with the power of incumbency for AD4, AD13, and AD22 (AD2 is an open seat). Beyond those five seats, the narrowest margin for a Republican held seat is 6% and over 1500 ballots in AD31. This is likely a stretch and by the point where Republicans would be worrying over those seats, the Democrats would have already won over ¾ of the Assembly.
In Clark County, the Republicans are very, very unlikely to even come close to the county-wide partisan races, or with any of the Commission races where Democrats are leading from 8.8% to 22%.
Low Clark County turnout is the big hope for Republicans statewide, the collapse of the Republican vote in that county complicates that hope while also dooming them in the state legislature and especially when it comes to county governance.
tl;dr
Republicans need a huge Election Day win and a sudden and massive drop-off in Democrat’s mail ballot lead in order to avoid a Democratic Trifecta. How the partisan breakdown shakes out for Election Day, and to a lesser extend the remaining mail ballots, remains to be seen and at this juncture can not be stated with any degree of certainty by anyone except a haruspex.
