After the first day of early voting, the Republicans have a statewide raw voter lead of 1413 votes out of 23637 cast, including absentee ballots returned. 2% of registered voters have already voted. In 2010, the turnout was 65%, and if 2014 is similar, than ca 3% of the vote in Nevada has already been cast.
The voter lead of 6% for the Republicans is 11% above than their voter registration deficit of 5%. Considering that statewide the Democrats have a 5% voter registration lead over Republicans, and 13% in Clark County (which has 70% of the states population), this is a good sign for Republicans even though it is only one day of early voting.
In Clark County, Democrats only lead in early voting by 115 votes, despite the Democrats having a registration lead over Republicans of over 100,000 voters. In comparison, they lead by 1589 votes on the first day in 2010, when Gov. Sandoval defeated Rory Reid by double digits and the Republicans received more voted cast for the Assembly than did the Democrats.
This is especially ominous when one considered that every other county in Nevada, save for Mineral county, has a GOP registration plurality. The overall voter turnout in Clark County was 10,312. This is much lower than the 17,059 voters who turned out on the first day of early voting in 2010. The Democrats voter lead in Clark county after the first day of early voting in 2010 was ca 10%, while it is less than 1% now (and it 14% above their voter registration deficit of 13%). This lead is just 7% of what it was in 2010, and would extrapolate to a Democrat lead in early voting of only 2,800 voters. Since early voting is likely to be ca 70% of the total votes cast, this would give the Democrats a lead in Clark County of only about 4000 vote on election day. While it is too early to make a firm projection, the results from the first day of early voting are in stark contrast with the first day of early voting in 2010.
In 2010, Gov. Sandoval and Lt. Gov. Krolicki actually won Clark County. If the first day of early voting turns out to be a trend, the Democrats are in serious trouble. The Democrats control the state Senate by one vote. There are three contested districts, two currently held by republicans (SD8 and SD20), and one by a Democrat (SD9). The Republicans would have to win all three to pick up the state Senate. Republicans have more early voters in all three districts. Most shocking, however, is that the 4th Congressional district, currently held by Democrat Steven Horsford, is nearly even with less than a hundred vote difference in early voting. in 2012, Horsford won the district by 8%.
The Republicans lead in all 9 of the 15 rural counties that have reported, save for Mineral County.
In Washoe county, the Republicans are ahead by 901 votes out of 6205 votes for absentee and early voting, with a 510 vote lead in early voting alone. Washoe has been the bellwether county in Nevada, with no one winning statewide without winning Washoe since Reid’s very narrow win over Ensign in 1998. With Clark County a tie, and the GOP comfortably ahead after the first day, combined with the expected blowout for the GOP from the rural counties, the Republicans are in a strong starting position.
Here are the percentages and comparison with 2008, 2010, and 2012.
|Early Vote + Absentee||44.7%||38.7%||16.6%|
|Total Early 2008||31.6%||51.8%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||40.2%||44.2%||15.7%|
|Total Early 2012||36.1%||44.5%||19.5%|
*Excludes votes from six various rural counties that haven’t reported as of posting.
The Republican edge in early voting and absentee ballots is about 11% above the Republicans statewide registration deficit of 5%.
Clark County Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population
|Early Vote + Absentee||41.3%||42.4%||16.3%|
|Early Vote 2010||37.9%||47.2%||14.9%|
|Total Early 2008||30.6%||52.0%||17.4%|
|Total Early 2010||37.4%||46.2%||16.4%|
|Total Early 2012||32.2%||48.2%||19.6%|
Democratic early vote lead (including absentees) is about 12% below their registration advantage of 13%.
Washoe County Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population
|Early Vote + Absentee*||48.7%||34.2%||17.1%|
|Total Early 2008||35.3%||47.1%||17.5%|
|Total Early 2010||44.7%||40.3%||15.0%|
|Total Early 2012||39.9%||40.5%||19.5%|
Republican early vote lead (including absentees) is about 10% above their registration advantage of 3%.
To summarize: The Republicans are off to a strong head start.
Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:
“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”
Until the next update…