The first week of early voting in Nevada for the primary election has concluded. Increasingly, early voting has become the choice of a larger and larger majority of voters in Nevada. Traditionally, early voting has skewed Republican compared to election day and over all results; absentees have usually been even more Republican.
Since the Presidential Caucuses are held earlier in the year, it is easier to compare 2016 with 2012: Both years had a Senate primary in a Presidential election year with clear front runners, at least one House seat with a competitive primary in Clark County (home of Las Vegas and a majority of Nevada voters), and no other statewide races on the ballot.
And so, the comparison. The number of active registered voters in Nevada in 2016 is 22% higher than it was in 2012, so naturally the number of voters in the primary can be expected to be higher than in 2012. However, the number of primary voters so far at this point in early voting is only 12% higher than in 2012, with 65,414 early voters in 2016 compared to 47,950 after the first week in 2012.* This, of course, does not mean much when it comes to either turnout in November, or new registrants between now and November.
The state can be divided, as Caeser might say, into three parts: Clark County, which contains Las Vegas and 70% of the states population; Washoe County, which contains Reno and 20% of the states population; and the rural counties, which contain 10% of the states population.
Clark County leans Democratic, while the rural counties are overwhelmingly Republican if not more conservative (hard right 3rd parties can be elected to partisan office in many rural counties). This leaves Washoe as the “Bellwether” county which has, with two notable exceptions, always gone with the statewide winner in every statewide contest in Nevada this century.
That being said, the numbers do not bode well for the Republicans. A comparison of turnout, as a percentage of the vote is noted below for statewide, Clark County, and Washoe County results:
Statewide
| |
2016 |
2012 |
| GOP |
46.4% |
49.7% |
| Dem |
43.9% |
43.9% |
Clark County
| |
2016 |
2012 |
| GOP |
40.0% |
44.6% |
| Dem |
50.6% |
46.7% |
Washoe County
| |
2016 |
2012 |
| GOP |
50.8% |
53.9% |
| Dem |
39.0% |
36.6% |
As a starting point between 2012 and 2016, this is an ominous sign for Republicans. Their statewide turnout gap shrunk from over 9 points in 2012 to less than 3 points in 2016. Even more ominously, their deficit in Clark County shrank from 2 points to 10. Even in Washoe County shrank from 16 points to 11 points.
The one big caveat, however, is that primary numbers are not reflective of what will happen in November. Indeed, there were many races where one candidate in a non-partisan race received a majority of votes in June, but was wiped out in November.**
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