The first of two weeks of early voting has finished up, with one more to go. The Democrats early voter lead is only 9021 registered voters, which shrinks by half to 4549, when returned absentees are included.* In comparison, in 2016, the Democrats had a lead of 29,369 from early voting after the first week, and 27,150 when returned absentees were included. Hillary Clinton and Cortez Masto won statewide by about 27,000 votes each, though the later did barely lose Washoe County. With turnout overall at just under 80% of what it was in 2016, that 27,000 lead would translate, ceteris peribus, to just over 21,000 votes, which is more than the just under 25,000 voter lead drop the Democrats have seen overall so far in early voting/returned absentees. While this does not prove that both Laxalt and Heller are en route to defeat Sisolak and Rosen for Governor and U.S. Senate, respectively, it is a good sign for the former.
Clark County
For Clark County, the Democrats advantage after the first weekend is 18,039 in early voting, which drops by forty votes when returned absentees are included. The Democrats’ lead was just under 38,000 in 2012, and nearly 39,000 in 2016; in contrast, in 2010, another Gubernatorial year, it was only about 9,000. Since 2010, the total electorate has increased, as has the use of early voting, so 2010 comparisons of raw numbers are not necessary useful. The Democrats edge in Clark county is at 10%, or about six thousand votes, which is less than their 12½% active voter registration edge in the county; this drops to less than 9% when returned absentees are included.
Washoe County
For Washoe County, the Democrats retain a lead of 2184 voters in early voting, which shrinks to 620 voters when returned absentees are included, resulting with the Democats having a lead of just 1%, which stands in contrast with the 2% lead Republicans have in voter registration. For comparison, Democrats had a voter lead in 2016 of 2492 total early voters and returned absentees. Considering that Heck barely won Washoe in 2016, and that Trump lost it at the same election, it is not impossible that both Laxalt and Heller lose both Clark and Washoe, but still win statewide due to the lower Democratic margin in Clark combined with typically strong rural turnout. However, both Laxalt and Heller have northern Nevada powerbases, while both Sisolak and Rosen are based solely in southern Nevada, which could provide an additional vote buffer from northern Nevada due to northen vs. southern rivalry and a desire by the north to keep a check on the south. The only rub is that independent gubernatorial candidate Bundy might siphon off enough votes from Laxalt to throw the election Sisolak.
In the early vote alone, the Democrats are doing much worse in Clark County compared to 2016, but actually doing fairly well in Washoe County for a non-Presidential year, with the Democrats lead statewide being primarily due to the heavy dropoff of Democrats vis-à-vis Clark County. Going forward, the second week of early voting will add to the Democrats overall lead, though not by a large margin, with perhaps less than a 10,000 voter lead, excluding late returning absentee ballots.
