
The November 5th elections signal a complete cycle (save for the Gubernatorial run-off in Louisiana) of off-Presidential year elections in the United States. If we can learn anything from this odd-year election it is that all the trends in elections since the 2016 Presidential election are unabated: The suburbs, especially amongst college-educated White women, have turned away from the Republican Party under Donald Trump, and may very well be calcifying.
Oh, there were victories for Republicans, such as winning the Mississippi governorship, picking up seats in the New Jersey Legislature, and Washington state’s Referendum 88 being behind by a few percentage points (mail-in ballots are still being counted—or “discovered”). However there were even worse losses.
In Kentucky, the Republicans won all but one state-wide race by large margins. However, the one they did lose is the governorship. In this case the lose was due primarily to the unpopular incumbent, Matt Bevin. But even then, a Left-ward shift could be seen.
Some may hope that this is just due to “Trump Voters” who sat home and will only come out for Donald Trump. However…
Even in Mississippi, where the Lt. Gov. defeated the still relatively popular Atty. Gen., there were noticeable shifts Left-ward.
Mississippi also echoes a national trend seen in this election, and elections in 2018 and 2017: The suburbs are becoming more Democratic voting while Republicans are doing better in rural areas.
While this is a beneficial trade-off in states like Mississippi, which was already highly Republican and more rural than many other states, it bodes ill for those states whose rural populations are much small compared to the growing suburban and exurban communities which are embracing the Democrats/Anti-Trump party. Far too many swing states don’t have enough rural votes to counter the massive shift in the suburbs/exurbs.
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