Since the election changes brought in the wake of the Covid lockdowns, there are only two general elections in Nevada, and only one undertaken during a midterm. While comparisons can be made, the numbers from 2022 may not be reflective of trends in 2026. With that caveat, let us look at where things stand after the 1st full week of early voting in Nevada.
N.B. The numbers are accurate as of time of retrieval, which will vary throughout the day.
Statewide
Nevada’s early votes are split between in-person early voting and mail ballots. After the first week of early voting is outnumbering in-person voting (including mail ballots dropped off at in-person polling locations) by about 8 to 5; in comparison, at this point in 2022, the ratio was lower at ca 3 to 2. In total, Democrats have built up a lead of ca 4% ca 14,000 votes. The total mail ballots for the first week of 2022 are incomplete since the mail ballots for Washoe Republicns was missing, but with an estimated 10K votes, the Dems likely had a ca 10% lead overall.
This is in large part due to the overall lower voting rate for Democrat heavy Clark County, though this affects Republicans as well, which will have major effects in the legislative races.
Overall, Republicans continue to increasingly accept voting early by mail, or at least with mail ballots in-person at early voting sites. However, this has concomitantly resulted in their previous overwhelming leads in in-person early voting dropping precipitously, which is explored in greater detail below.
The major question is, since the in-person and mail voting trends have clearly changed from 2022, it is an open question what Election Day turnout will be. In 2022, the GOP netted ca 48,000 voters; in 2024, the Election Day turnout was almost even with less than 2000 voter difference. Is this simply a function of Presidential turnout vs mid-term turnout, or a more general trend of people voting early rather than on Election Day. This analysis is slightly complicated since mail ballots include both those sent in by mail as well as those dropped off in person at election sties (both early and Election Day).
All else equal, the Democrats’ lead is smaller than what it was in 2022. The caveat, though, is that in 2022 the Republicans had a huge Election Day turnout that flipped the total voter lead from Democrat to Republican while in 2024 the Election Day difference was negligible. A reminder that in 2022, while Republicans flipped the Governor’s seat (the only top-of-the ticket flip that year from Democrat to Republican) and won two other statewide partisan races, they lost four others including the U.S. Senate race, as well as losing all competitive state Senate seats and ending up in the super-minority in the state Assembly (despite having more votes cast for the GOP in Assembly races than for the Democrats). Without an Election Day turnout lead at leas ca half-way by percentage between those of 2022 and 2024, the Republican party will be in trouble, especially down ballot in Clark County where the majority of legislative seats are.
In-Person Early Voting
The in-person voter has to surrender their universal mail ballot in order to vote in-person, unless they had declined to receive a mail ballot. The Republican party has a statewide lead of ca 5½% with ca 7000 voterss. In comparison, in 2022 at this point, the Republican Party had a lead of 18½% with ca 20,000 voters. In comparison, after the 1st week of 2024, the GOP had a voter lead statewide of almost 25%.
In Clark County, home of Las Vegas and the majority of voters, the Democrats have an in person voter lead of ca 2%, or about 1500 voters. In 2022, the Republicans had a lead in Clark County of ca 12½% and ca 10,000 votes. In comparison, after the 1st week of 2024, the GOP had a voter lead in Clark County of ca 18%.
In Washoe County, home of Reno and most of the rest of the state, the Republicans have a voter lead of 3½% or ca 700 voters. In 2022, the Republicans had a lead in Washoe County of ca 10% or ca 3500 voters. In comparison, after the 1st week of 2024, the GOP had a voter lead in Washoe County of ca 21%.
Mail Ballots
Mail ballots are more Democratic. Statewide, the Democrats have a mail ballot lead of ca 9½%, or ca 21,000 voters. Direct comparison is difficult due to the numbers for Washoe County not being readily available to your humble author. In 2022, the Democrats had a statewide lead of ca 23% and 40,000 votes. In Clark County the Democrats have a lead of ca 17% compared to 24% in 2022. The Democrat’s current mail voter lead in Washoe is ca 7%; in comparison their lead in Washoe with mail ballots overall was ca 16%.
Of note, non-partisan and 3rd party voters in Clark County have cast more mail ballot than Republicans!
Non-Statewide Races
Your humble author will only touch briefly on these races, and will rely on Data Point Research for breaking down the numbers. Republicans are behind in the three swing seats in the state Senate they’d need a hat trick in to gain control of the state Senate, the narrowest being SD8. The closest seat held by a Republican is SD16, where the Republicans maintain a voter lead. In the state Assembly, though, they are behind in five seats they currently control at this point. The total voter differences in these Assembly seats, however, is in the hundreds of voters and low single digit by percentage. The biggest vote deficit for a Republican held seat in the Assembly is AD35, which the Republicans picked up in 2024 after failing to win it in 2022. Republicans are also lagging in all three Clark County Commission races.
tl;dr
Democrats statewide are not doing as well as they were at this point in 2022, but what trend we’ll see in the second week of early voting is not clear; Election day relative turn-out is the big unknown and the Republicans would be foolish to blindly assume they’ll win the day as big as they did in 2022 (but not 2024).
