Obama’s Unicorn Logic Failure

Posted on November 4, 2012 by The Political Hat

     At the last of the 2012 Presidential Debates, Gov. Romney spoke of the need to keep up the Navy’s fleet strength in order for it to fulfill its mandated missions. Pres. Obama belittled this and spoke about “these things called aircraft carriers, where planes land on them. We have these ships that go underwater, nuclear submarines” as if all other navy vessels were as outdated as “horses and bayonets.”

     Of course, the military has more bayonets then it did a hundred years ago, and though our reliance on horses may be less, they still have a critical place in the military today.

     What are “horses and bayonets” but the individual parts of a unicorn? Does this mean we don’t get the unicorns we were supposed to get from Obama after all?

A horse with a bayonet Continue reading →

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The Worse the Education, The Greater the Funding

Posted on November 4, 2012 by The Political Hat

     On the ballot this election day in southern Nevada, is a measure by the Clark County School District, which is 5th largest in the nation, to hike property taxes to pay for a $669 Million bond that purports to save crumbling schools and save students from a balmy 100+ °C Summer day.

     Of course, the School District claims to be pinching pennies, even though they are willing to toss perfectly good furniture in order to have the snazziest new stuff.

     Sadly, this is just an example of the school district spending more and more.  In the last 50 years, the district has increased spending by 300%, adjusted for inflation, over the past 50 years, yet over a third of students fail to graduate! Continue reading →

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Four Dead in Benghazi ♫ ♪

Posted on November 3, 2012 by The Political Hat

     The outrage of Benghazi is nothing to make light of.  Many people are bringing the Obama administration’s involvement in this tragedy in this to light, from bloggers in pajamas, to Republican Congressmen.

     However, an interesting comparison can be made.  Contrast the outrage the left had at the Kent State incident sung so eloquently about by Neil Young, with what the silence of the left today!  Perhaps we should update Neil Young’s “Ohio” so that they may understand:

Jihadis and Benghazi burning
they left them all alone
this fall I hear the drumming
four dead and no one knows

Gotta get down to it
RPGs cutting us down
Should’ve been bombed long ago
What if you knew them
your sons dead on the ground
How can you lie, when you know?

Gotta get down to it
RPGs cutting us down
Should’ve been bombed long ago
What if you knew them
your sons dead on the ground
How can you lie, when you know?

Jihadis and Benghazi burning
they left them all alone
this fall I hear the drumming
four dead and no one knows

     Quite a bit of difference a few pounds of Choom makes… Continue reading →

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Nevada Early Voting Ends

Posted on November 3, 2012 by The Political Hat

     Early voting has finished in Nevada.  With the exception of late arriving absentee ballots, all that is left are the votes on election day.

     This is where we stand: After completion of Early Voting, the Democrats have a raw voter lead in early voting of just under 48K statewide.  Early vote ballots were cast by 50% of all active registered voters.  If absentee ballots (received and counted as of Saturday morning before the election) are included, then 56% of all active registered voters have voted.  If we see a turnout of about 80%, that means that 63% (nearly 2/3 of all votes) have been cast by early voting, and 70% of all votes are already in.  This leaves only 30% of the electorate voting on election day (or by late absentee).

     The democrats early vote lead statewide is at 9%, which is about 2% above their registration advantage in the state.  Their lead in Clark County is at 16%, or about 1% above their registration advantage of 15%.  Washoe gives the Democrats a 1/2% advantage in early votes, for a county that is essentially even in registration..  If the early absentees are included, the Democrat advantage drops to about 7% statewide, to about 141/2% in Clark County, and becomes a net disadvantage in Washoe of about 1/2%. Continue reading →

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Obama’s 2nd Term: “Afflict the Comfortable”

Posted on November 2, 2012 by The Political Hat

     Robert Reich, Pres. Clinton’s economic “Mini-me,” recently summarized a stark choice between a 2nd Obama term, and a Romney term:

     So, what will it be America?  Romney, or this:

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Nevada Early Vote Update (One Day Left To Go)

Posted on November 2, 2012 by The Political Hat

     After the second to last day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 45K raw voters over Republicans; this shrinks to less than 40K when absentees that have been turned-in already are included.

     After 13 days of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 76K in Clark County.  The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 79% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 11%, relative to four years ago.  This results in a 71% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting.  Absentees are coming in at about 1/7 of the early votes. At this 71% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 15%, or about 66K in Clark County.  Assuming that early votes are about 70% of the total vote, and with an 80% turnout, this would give a lead for the Democrats in Clark County at about 75K, if a similar reduction in advantage for election day vote advantage is applied and assuming that 2012 trends like in 2008 (with Democrat vote advantage shrunk to 71%, and 112% of the early voters).

     Washoe county continues to trend towards being an overall wash (pun intended) with a less than 1000 vote difference between Republicans and Democrats.  The strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties is the only thing that is blunting the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 60K.  With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K (They are already +17K for the Republicans so far) in favor of the Republicans total, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 50K.  With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just over 5%.  This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).

     This is assuming that 2012 will play out similar to 2008 when it comes down to relative advantage between early votes, absentee votes, and election day votes.  For example, the advantage for the Democrats in early voting (22% on the 13th day of early voting), dropped to 14½% by election day.  Perhaps a more ominous comparison then 2008 is actually 2010.  In 2010 the early vote spread matched up with the total vote spread, being 8%.  If 2012 follows 2010, than the Democrats would a voter lead in Clark County of over 100 votes, with a total statewide lead of 75K votes, all else equal.  This would result in not only an Obama victory, but could clench the Senate seat for Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).

     Ironically, even though 2010 was a good year for Republicans in Nevada (Harry Reid’s reelection aside), the turnout trends would be worse if applied to 2012.  If it is true what the RNC is saying, and the Dems have burned through far more of their high propensity voters, than a 2008 trend might be the more plausible one. Continue reading →

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Danish Doctors Try to Harvest Organs of Healthy Girl Declared “Brain Dead”

Posted on November 1, 2012 by The Political Hat

     The slaughter of patients in order to harvest their organs has previously been touched upon, but the horrors just seem to multiply.

Death, Rx

     Recently in Denmark, proud doctors of their socialized “utopia” with all that spiffy “free” medicine, declared a 19 year old girl to be “brain dead” with no hope of recovery, and convinced the parents to donate her organs.  However:

“But Carina Melchior did not die after her respirator was removed. She is now undergoing rehabilitation and may make a full recovery. About 500 people immediately removed their names from Denmark’s organ donor register.”

     What could be more “socialized” then a “redistribution” of your internal organs?  Continue reading →

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Nevada Early Vote Update (12th day of 14)

Posted on November 1, 2012 by The Political Hat

     After the 12th day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 40K raw voter numbers over Republicans; this shrinks to less than 37K when absentees that have been turned-in already are included.

     After ten day of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 70K in Clark County.  The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 77% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 15%, relative to four years ago.  This results in a 67% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting.  Absentees are coming in at about 15% of the early votes. At this 67% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 13.6%, or about 62K in Clark County.  Assuming that early votes are about 70% of the total vote, and with an 80% turnout, this would give a lead for the Democrats in Clark County at about 75K

     Washoe county continues to trend towards being an overall wash (pun intended) with a less than 1000 vote difference between Republicans and Democrats.  The strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties id the only thing that is blunting the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 54K.  With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K in favor of the Republicans total, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 50K.  With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just over 5%.  This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).

     All of the above assumes that 2012 trends like in 2008 (with Democrat vote advantage shrunk to 67%, and 115% of the early voters).  If the last two days for early voting are decent for the Republicans, the projected raw vote lead of 50K could shrink.  This also does not take into account a potential increase in absentee ballots, which don’t have to be in until election day, and would almost certainly benefit the Republicans, which have an edge in absentee ballots in and reported of over 3000 votes.  An improvement in the ground game on election day would further narrow the Democrats raw voter lead.  At that point, who get what percent of each parties or independents vote starts to really matter. Continue reading →

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Nevada Early Vote Update (10th Day of 14)

Posted on October 30, 2012 by The Political Hat

     After the 10th day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 34K raw votes, which was 2K less than the 36K it was the previous day.  Washoe county continues to trend towards being a wash (pun intended), so only the strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties will even partially blunt the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 47K.  After ten day of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 61K.  The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 79% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 40%.  This results in a 56% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting.  Absentees are coming in at just under 1/5 of the early votes.

     At this 56% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 62K in Clark County.  With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K in favor of the Republicans total, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 40K.  With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just over 4%.  This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).

     All of the above assumes that 2012 trends like in 2008 (with Democrat vote advantage shrunk to 56%, and 140% of the early voters). Continue reading →

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Nevada Early Vote Update (9th Day of 14)

Posted on October 29, 2012 by The Political Hat

     After the 9th day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 36K raw votes. Washoe county is trending towards being a wash (pun intended), so only the strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties will even partially blunt the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 46K. After nine day of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 56K. The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 82% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 26%. This results in a 64% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting. Absentees are coming in at just under 1/6 of the early votes.

     At this 64% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 70K in Clark County. With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K in favor of the Republicans, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 45K. With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just under 5%. This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness), which adds to the positivity previously noted.

Continue reading →

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