The Political Hat

     The first four days of early voting have finished and the Blue Wave continues to build: Democrats have built up a voter edge of 25,283, for a voter lead of 9%, which is 3% above the Democrats active voter edge. This is nearly 3000 more than Democrats had in 2012 at this point. The early vote on Thursdays day aren’t as bad as the previous weekend, but this is a usual trend: Democrats do best on or near the weekends, and the Republicans reduce the bleed on the weekdays, so the numbers will get worse for the Republicans this coming weekend, and the final Friday of early voting. The one silver lining on this coming Democratic storm cloud is that the Republicans are doing much better in absentee ballots, with a statewide lead of 1805, which is in contrast with 2012 when the Democrats have a 320 vote lead. This isn’t much of a lead, and even if the lead were much higher, it wouldn’t make much of a dent as absentees so far have been only about 15% of in-person early voting numbers. The absentee vote that has come in has been trending Republican, and at this point, the only hope of the Republicans is that not only will this trend continue, but that there is a large number of Republican absentee ballots for late deciders that will come in between now and election day.

     The Democrat voter edge in Clark County is almost 16% (almost 32,000 votes), which is 2% above their active voter registration lead, and comparable to the Democrats’ lead in 2012, adjusted for the increase in active voters. The Democrat voter edge in Washoe County is 5% (over 2800 votes), which is 6½% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½%, which is much more than the 1989 voter lead the Democrats had in Washoe county at this point.   The Democrats even have a voter lead in Mineral County, which rarely goes Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state. While the lead in Mineral County is only 12 votes out of 484, Mineral County doesn’t go Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state.

U.S. Senate, Congress, and State Senate

     In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley. While Joe Heck has a much better ground game and campaign than Heller did four years ago, Heller didn’t have to contend with the Trump effect, or with the campaign of Cortez Masto. While in almost any other year, Cortez Masto would be running a loosing campaign against Heck, the 300 increase in Democratic voter lead after four days out of fourteen is about 40% of what would be necessary to overcome Berkeley’s deficit, assuming the non-partisan and 3^rd Party voters vote similarly to what they did in 2012.

     Both the 3^rd and 4^th Congressional Districts find the Republicans trailing badly. This will be the first time that Clark County will not have a single Republican Representative in the House since Nevada had a single district back in the 1980 election.

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     The first four days of early voting have finished and the Blue Wave continues to build: Democrats have built up a voter edge of 23,545, for a voter lead of 10%, which is 4% above the Democrats active voter edge. This is nearly 4000 more than Democrats had in 2012 at this point. The early vote on the 4^th day isn’t as bad as the previous weekend, but this is a usual trend: Democrats do best on or near the weekends, and the Republicans reduce the bleed on the weekdays, so the numbers will get worse for the Republicans this coming weekend, and the final Friday of early voting. The one silver lining on this coming Democratic storm cloud is that the Republicans are doing much better in absentee ballots, with a statewide lead of 1451, which is in contrast with 2012 when the Democrats have a 55 vote lead. This isn’t much of a lead, and even if the lead were much higher, it wouldn’t make much of a dent as absentees so far have been only about 20% of in-person early voting numbers… a percentage that has dropped from being about 50% of in-person early voting numbers. The absentee vote that has come in has been trending Republican, and at this point, the only hope of the Republicans is that not only will this trend continue, but that there is a large number of Republican absentee ballots for late deciders that will come in between now and election day.

     The Democrat voter edge in Clark County is almost 20% (over 28,000 votes), which is 6% above their active voter registration lead, and comparable to the Democrats’ lead in 2012, adjusted for the increase in active voters. The Democrat voter edge in Washoe County is 8½% (over 2700 votes), which is 10% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½%, which is much more than the 1152 voter lead the Democrats had in Washoe county at this point.   The Democrats even have a voter lead in Mineral County, which rarely goes Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state. While the lead in Mineral County is only 10 votes out of 373, Mineral County doesn’t go Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state.

U.S. Senate, Congress, and State Senate

     In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley. While Joe Heck has a much better ground game and campaign than Heller did four years ago, Heller didn’t have to contend with the Trump effect, or with the campaign of Cortez Masto. While in almost any other year, Cortez Masto would be running a loosing campaign against Heck, the 4000 increase in Democratic voter lead after four days out of fourteen is about 40% of what would be necessary to overcome Berkeley’s deficit, assuming the non-partisan and 3^rd Party voters vote similarly to what they did in 2012.

     Both the 3^rd and 4^th Congressional Districts find the Republicans trailing badly. This will be the first time that Clark County will not have a single Republican Representative in the House since Nevada had a single district back in the 1980 election.

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     The first three days of early voting have finished and the beginnings of a Blue Wave are quickly building: Democrats have built up a voter edge of over 21,000, for a voter lead of 15%, which is 9% above the Democrats active voter edge. This is over 5000 more than Democrats had in 2012 at this point. The Democrat voter edge in Clark County is almost 20%, which is 6% above their active voter registration lead; The Democrat voter edge in Washoe County is 9%, which is over 10% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½% The Democrats even have a voter lead in Mineral County, which rarely goes Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state.

U.S. Senate, Congress, and State Senate

     In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley. While Joe Heck has a much better ground game and campaign than Heller did four years ago, Heller didn’t have to contend with the Trump effect, or with the campaign of Cortez Masto. While in almost any other year, Cortez Masto would be running a loosing campaign against Heck, the 5000 increase in Democratic voter lead after only the first two days out of fourteen is about 40% of what would be necessary to overcome Berkeley’s deficit, assuming the non-partisan and 3^rd Party voters vote similarly to what they did in 2012.

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     The first two days of early voting have finished and the beginnings of a Blue Wave are quickly building: Democrats have built up a voter edge of 18,000, for a voter lead of 21%, which is 7% above the Democrats active voter edge. This is 4000 more than Democrats had in 2012 at this point. The rural counties did not have early voting on Sunday (only Clark County and Washoe County), but these won’t come close to overcoming the leads the Democrats are building up in Clark and Washoe. The Democrats even have a voter lead in Mineral County, which rarely goes Democrat unless there is an overwhelming wave for the Democrats in the northern part of the state.

U.S. Senate, Congress, and State Senate

     In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley. While Joe Heck has a much better ground game and campaign than Heller did four years ago, Heller didn’t have to contend with the Trump effect, or with the campaign of Cortez Masto. While in almost any other year, Cortez Masto would be running a loosing campaign against Heck, the 4000 increase in Democratic voter lead after only the first two days out of fourteen is about 40% of what would be necessary to overcome Berkeley’s deficit, assuming the non-partisan and 3^rd Party voters vote similarly to what they did in 2012.

     At least Heck will have the experience to run for U.S. Senate or Governor in 2018, assuming he can at least keep it close.

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