Though begun as “Armistice Day,” Veterans Day has expanded in the United States as a day for all those brave men and women who fight to keep us free.
On the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month, let us remember they who risked everything for freedom, including their very lives.
I have only once been more ecstatic to be wrong than I was with my top-line prediction. Despite the accusations by Trump’s more ardent cult followers, I was not pro-Hillary, and was hoping for a miracle to save this country from her stacking the Supreme Court with the most unsuitable of judges. Now, perhaps, we have a chance to stack the Supreme Court with justices who adhere to the Constitution and the Common Law, rather than engage in Rawlsian machinations to achieve desired ends.
I still maintain that Trump has not irreparable damage by turning otherwise nice and intelligent people into ranting and obnoxious true believers—for which they will likely double down on their obnoxiousness. That many political rent seekers have latched on to him belies the notion of Trump being a pure anti-establishment candidate.
I have the solace, at least, of not being alone in being wrong, though I at least saw the problem of the disparate and chaotic polls. So, where the Trump cheerleaders correct in their assessment? I am willing to consider the possibility that Trump built a movement that overwhelmed all opposition in an act of liberation. Indeed, I have noted that the forgotten non-college education blue collar working class Whites were ripe to be plucked by someone who could make them believe he cared about them and would protect them against the Progressives and Democrats, who have turned them into the designated villain to justify “Social Justice”, and against a distant Republican establishment elite of the political class as well as conservatives who never were able to connect on an emotional level with them. I will be willing to weight the upcoming evidence.
However, there is evidence to the contrary. While Trump was able to win the old “Rust Belt” by appealing to those same non-college education blue collar working class Whites, he appears to have lost the popular vote—a great formerly silent majority Trump supporters are not. This is not to plant doubt on his victory, for it is the Electoral College that he had to win, and did win, and for which any campaign wargames for. Indeed, we have yet again seen the wisdom of the Constitutional framers who laid out such elegant checks upon pure majoritarian democracy.
I would suggest that the disagreement over the predicted outcome of the election in the political equivalent to the debate over continental drift. Continental drift was, in part, rejected because the proposed mechanism was laughingly false, namely that “‘icebergs’ of low density granite floating on a sea of denser basalt”. Thus I maintain that I was wrong for the right reasons, and that the Trump cheerleaders were right for the wrong reasons.
Half a dozen of years ago, I was talking with a scientist who had immigrated from Bulgaria, had lived under Communism, and had become an American citizen. The words she spoke to me still gives me a chill of terror:
Remember these words as you go vote…
It’s prediction time! My “official” prediction for the 2016 election are below. This election cycle feels like I’ve been Cassandra to the Trump supporter’s Priam, abet with far more accusations of being an agent for Hillary Clinton and of being a “cuck”. With polling being so scattershot and inconsistent, It’d be more prudent to state a range of outcomes, rather than a specific unwavering number. And, of course, I will abide by Cromwell’s Rule, though the Republicans fortune in many states and races is asymptotically approaching zero.
President
President. Hillary Clinton, who would have lost to almost any other Republican, will likely win the Presidency 333 to 205.* The map is not an optimistic one for Donald Trump. After seeing the trends in Nevada, I will not assume, as I did in 2012, that the rest of the country is 180° off.
I will discuss Nevada below, but Hispanics have been turning out en masse, which dooms Colorado and New Mexico. I will go out on a limb and predict that this Hispanic turn-out coupled with the Trump Effect will give Hillary a narrow win in Arizona—the second time out of three that a Clinton wins Arizona. Virginia has become a long-shot for Republicans, and Pennsylvania effectively forfeited, and as goes Pennsylvania, goes the election. The Trump Effect may extend to North Carolina and Florida, which would result in Hillary gaining their 44 electoral votes. Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida are the most marginal states, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Republicans keep them; however, even with all three states, Trump will come up short. I am giving Ohio to Trump because his appeal to blue collar working class Whites without a higher education degree is real. It’ll be enough in Ohio, but not enough for Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan due to his disappeal amongst other groups needed to win. I’m also going to go out on a limb and give Trump Maine-2 for the same reason I am giving him Ohio.
Perhaps I am being a bit too pessimistic, but I’d rather be pleasantly surprised than unpleasantly despondent. With this election showing so much uncertainty, I’ll state an Electoral College range from best case scenario for Trump of 260 Electoral Votes to Hillary’s 278; Hillary’s likely best case scenario is to win with 353 Electoral Votes to Trump’s 179 (with 6 EV going to McMullin in Utah). Anything within this range is plausible.
Senate
This will not be a good year for Republicans. There was only one good pick-up opportunity, two if the election season had been more favorable for Republicans. Democrats need a pick-up of four seats to win, with Kaine providing the deciding vote in a 50-50 split Senate. Nevada will be discussed below, but is likely to be a Democrat retention.
News of the Week for November 7th, 2016
A little mood music for a certain Presidential candidate…
Please allow me to introduce myself
I’m a woman of wealth and station
I’ve been around for a long, long year
Stole many a man’s donationAnd I was ’round when Lewinsky
Had her moment of public shame
Made damn sure that my husband
Got off scott-free and secured fatePleased to meet you
Donate to my campaign
But what confuses you
Is I why don’t feel shameI stuck around St. Petersburg
When I saw it was a time for a change
Bowed to Putin and his ministers
The reset button was all in vainI do profess
On “Lolita Express”
Laughing at young girls, against
Whom Bill did transgressPleased to meet you
Donate to my campaign, oh yeah
But what confuses you
Is I why don’t feel shame, oh yeahI watched with glee
While the vast right wing conspiracy
Fought for many decades
Against Leviathan I madeI shouted out,
“Who killed America?”
When after all
It was you and meLet me please introduce myself
I’m a woman of wealth and spite
And I laid traps for Ambassadors
Who get killed when they reached BenghaziPleased to meet you
Donate to my campaign, oh yeah
But what confuses you
Is I why don’t feel shame, oh yeahPleased to meet you
Donate to my campaign, oh yeah
But what confuses you
Is I why don’t feel shame, oh yeahJust as every cop is a criminal
And all the sinners saints
As heads is tails
Just call me Hillary
‘Cause I’m in need of some restraintSo if you meet me
Have some courtesy
Have some sympathy, and some taste
Donate your well-earned income
Or I’ll lay your company to wastePleased to meet you
Donate to my campaign, oh yeah
But what confuses you
Is I why don’t feel shame, oh yeahTell me n****r, support my campaign
Tell me f****t, give to my campaign
Tell me b****r, volunteer for my campaign
I tell you one time, you’re to blameOh, yeah
With early voting over, and only Friday’s numbers to be updated, with probably close to ca 2/3 of the total vote: Democrat voting in Friday was a complete blow-out: Democrats increased their total lead of voters to almost 46,000, for a voter lead of 6%, which is at registration. This is a decrease statewide for the Democrats lead vis-à-vis 2012 by about 2000 voters.
This overall slight decrease in the Democrats early voter lead is due completely to the rural counties increasing the voter lead for Republicans from about 22,000 in 2012 to over 28,000 in 2016. However, in the urban counties of Clark and Washoe, the story is very different.
The Democrat voter edge in Clark County remains just over 13½% (over 72,000 votes), which is ½% at their active voter registration lead, though due to the massive increase in overall registration, still leaves the Democrats with ca 2000 more early voters in Clark County than four years ago. Since most of the vulnerable legislative seats, the entirety of the 3rd Congressional District, and most of the 4th Congressional District lying within Clark County, the non-statewide contests will be a complete disaster for the Republicans.
Washoe is, perhaps, even worse off. Unlike in 2012, when they had a slight plurality for Republicans after the end of early voting, they are behind by quadruple digits (though barely) in 2016.
U.S. Senate & Congress
The one hope for Republicans is to replicate 2012 statewide. That year, though Obama won the state, Republican Dean Heller won the U.S. Senate seat about 10,000 votes, the only example from 2012 of the Republican winning the Senate seat in a state won by Obama. With a relatively similar registration and statewide early vote, there is hope for a Heck win.
However, there are critical differences between 2012 and 2016. In the Republicans’ favor, is the fact that Joe Heck has one of the best ground games in Nevada, and the only real one for Republicans this cycle. He is also relatively well known and has been generally well liked. In the Democrats’ favor are various factors: Cortez Masto is not as loathed as Democratic nominee Shelley Berkeley was in 2012; most state Republican Central Committees are absolute Trump cultists who were narrowly stopped from openly declaring war against Joe Heck; anonymous pro-Trump/anti-Heck mailers have been flooding many mailboxes; unlike Dean Heller, Joe Heck isn’t from northern Nevada and won’t get any bump that northern Nevada candidates usually do; and, of course, the Trump Effect. Heck had been leading constantly in the polls for months before the end of October, and since then the polls have been all over the place; Real Clear Politics shows Heck ahead with an average lead of 1.4 (as of posting), while Nat Silver’s 538 indicates a narrow win for Cortez Masto.
Both the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts find the Republicans staring down the precipice of doom.
With early voting over, and only Friday’s numbers to be updated, with probably close to ca 2/3 of the total vote: Democrats maintain a voter lead of just under 37,000, for a voter lead of 5½%, which ½% below the Democrats active voter edge, comparable to 2012 at this point. While this is not worse than in 2012, the Democrats are only being limited by the fact that the rural counties have already amassed a ca 25,000 voter lead. The Democrat voter edge in Clark County remains just over 13% (over 61,000 votes), which is 1% at their active voter registration lead, though due to the massive increase in overall registration, still leaves the Democrats with ca 10,000 more early voters in Clark County than four years ago. The Republicans have finally been able to gain a lead in Washoe with… a few hundred votes, which equates to less than a ½, which is still 2% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½%.
U.S. Senate & Congress
In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley. Joe Heck still has a chance, due entirely to the rural counties voting en masse. However, the state and Clark County Republican parties are run by Trump supporters who actively want to see Joe Heck lose. The Clark County Republican party narrowly avoided formally resolving to denounce and renounce Joe Heck; there have even been pro-Trump/anti-Heck mailers sent out to Republicans (without attribution, of course). Fortunately for Heck, the Republican party in Nevada is a non-entity.
If the state and urban county Republicans Parties were smart (which they aren’t), they’d be doing triage hard and focus on only a few races. The 4th Congressional District and the Assembly are write-offs at this point. In order to save the state Senate, Washoe Republicans need to focus all their energy on the 15th state Senate district; the Clark County Republicans need to focus all their energy on the 6th state Senate District. The state Republican Party (in conjunction with Washoe and Clark parties) need to focus on the U.S. Senate seat. Sadly, they don’t have enough time, energy, or money to save Tarkanian at this point in all likelyhood.
With early voting nearly over, and probably close to ca 60% of the total vote: Democrats maintain a voter lead of just over 33,000, for a voter lead of 5½%, which ½% below the Democrats active voter edge, comparable to 2012 at this point. The Democrat voter edge in Clark County remains just over 13% (over 55,000 votes), which is 1% at their active voter registration lead, though due to the massive increase in overall registration, still leaves the Democrats with over 6000 more early voters in Clark County than four years ago.. The Democrat voter edge in Washoe County, which also includes Wednesday’s voters, is 1% (with voter lead steady at about 2500 votes), which is still 2½% more than their deficit in active voters registered of 1½%.
U.S. Senate & Congress
In 2012, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate, Dean Heller won by 1%, or 10,000 votes, against a completely horrible Democratic nominee, Shelley Berkeley. Joe Heck’s still has a chance if the rural counties continue punch above their weight in turnout and give Heck enough margin to overcome the Republicans massive voter deficit in Clark County…and Washoe County, though the non-partisan and 3rd Party voters might end up giving Heck the edge in Washoe.
Another “quick takes” on items where there is too little to say to make a complete article, but is still important enough to comment on.
The focus this time: “Say my preferred gender pronoun, OR ELSE!!1!”
First, a little mood music:
Carrying on…
Because the main task of a college is to change society from one that assumes a persons pronouns, to one where you have to ask…
“Before the class of 2020 invaded Champlain College’s campus this year, staff members put their heads together to figure out new ways to accommodate students in the LGBT community.
“One idea: Create buttons displaying the pronouns with which the students identify, said Danelle Berube, the college’s director of residential life. As first-year orientation began, and upper-class student leaders also returned to campus, hundreds of pins were handed out. Faculty and staff also grabbed pins that fit their preferences.
Berube said Monday the school already needs to make more.
“…
“The pins display pronouns ranging from she/her and he/him to they/them and xe/xem. One type says, ‘Hello, my pronouns are fluid. Please ask me!’
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