The Political Hat

     With in-person early voting over for Nevada’s primary, only mail and non-polling place drop-offs are left before Election day. Overall, Republicans lead in-person voting by nearly 15,000 voters while the Democrats have a mail lead so far of nearly 19,000 voters. With the additional mail ballots coming in this coming in this week expected to be similarly favorable to the Democrats, their overall voter lead is expected to grow. The Democrats has an overall lead in the primaries of 2022 and 2024, as well.

Nevada est omnis divisa in partes tres

     The state can be divided, as Caeser might say, into three parts: Clark County, which contains Las Vegas and 70% of the states population; Washoe County, which contains Reno and 20% of the states population; and the rural counties, which contain 10% of the states population.

     Clark County leans Democratic and continues to do so. The rural counties are overwhelmingly Republican if not more conservative (hard right 3rd parties can be elected to partisan office in many rural counties).

     This leaves Washoe as the “Bellwether” county which has usually in the past always gone with the statewide winner in every statewide contest in Nevada this century.   However, Washoe, which has a slight Republican plurality or near parity, has been shifting, despite the registration numbers, more reliably to the Democrats.

     This is also only the second mid-term primary since Covid19 and the 2020 elections, which saw major changes to the election system, such as hitherto rare absentee ballots becoming universally sent out (save for those who specifically opt out), which changed the dynamics of the early voting numbers.

Where things stand after the end of in-person early voting

     Statewide, the GOP has an in-person early ballot lead of just over 16% over the Democrats, while the Democrats have a nearly 10% lead in mail ballots returned and accepted. The good news for the Democrats is that about twice as many ballots have been returned and accepted overall than there have been early voters. This results in an overall voter lead of nearly 5000 out of nearly 295K total votes, or about 1½ %. In 2022, the Democrats had ca 2% lead and in 2024 a lead of ca 4%.

     Overall, there isn’t some massive shift in relative turnout like we’ve seen in so many other states, with similar overall number of votes cast, which reflects the near parity of the parties’ voter registration totals.

     Of note, the 2^nd week early voting resulted in fewer Republican gains, with Democrats winning more in-person votes cast in populous Clark County.

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     The primary elections in other states have show wide and, for many, unexpected party turnout shifts.   In Democratic dominated states like California and Oregon, early results show the Republicans, though behind in overall numbers, turning out at a higher rate than Democrats. In contrast, in more Republican heavy states like Georgia and Texas, the Democrats have actually outvoted the Republicans.   So, where does Nevada lay on this spectrum after its first full week of early voting?

Nevada est omnis divisa in partes tres

     The state can be divided, as Caeser might say, into three parts: Clark County, which contains Las Vegas and 70% of the states population; Washoe County, which contains Reno and 20% of the states population; and the rural counties, which contain 10% of the states population.

     Clark County leans Democratic and continues to do so. The rural counties are overwhelmingly Republican if not more conservative (hard right 3rd parties can be elected to partisan office in many rural counties).

     This leaves Washoe as the “Bellwether” county which has usually in the past always gone with the statewide winner in every statewide contest in Nevada this century.   However, Washoe, which has a slight Republican plurality or near parity, has been shifting, despite the registration numbers, more reliably to the Democrats.

     This is also only the second mid-term primary since Covid19 and the 2020 elections, which saw major changes to the election system, such as hitherto rare absentee ballots becoming universally sent out (save for those who specifically opt out), which changed the dynamics of the early voting numbers.

2026 Numbers So-Far

     Statewide, the GOP has an in-person early ballot lead of 20% over the Democrats, while the Democrats have just under 7% lead in mail ballots returned and accepted. The good news for the Democrats is that over twice as many ballots have been returned and accepted overall than there have been early voters. This results in an overall voter lead of only 1500 out of nearly 127K total votes, or about 1%. In 2022, the GOP had an over 4000 overall voter lead out of about 111K, or ca 4%. Of note, the non-partisan and third party voters (Independent American Party and Libertarian Party), have a higher percentage of in-person voters, with ca 13% compared to 9% from 2022.

     Overall, there isn’t some massive shift in relative turnout like we’ve seen in so many other states, and the 1^st Week of in-person early voting has been pretty similar for the past three primary elections, with the major variable as of 2026 being the highly independent/3^rd-party vote.

In Person Early Vote after 1^st Week

Mail Vote Received and Accepted*

* Mail data obtained on the 8^th Day of early voting and may include some numbers from that Saturday. Mail votes for just the 1^st Week were not immediately available to your humble author for 2024, but for comparisons sake between 2022 and 2024, the relative percentages statewide for Democrats, Republicans, and Others were, respectively, 45.4% vs. 48.1%, 37.5% vs. 34.9%, and 17.0% vs. 16.5%.

     In Clark County, the Democrats have a voter edge of over 9%, which contrasts with the just under ca 4%. In contrast, in Washoe, they have a slight voter lead of less than 700 votes compared to a less than 400 voter lead for Democrats in 2022, which is a shift of a few percent, and not indicative of Washoe being just as competitive as it ever was.

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