Nevada Early Vote Update 2014 (1st Week)

     It is time for the Democrats to hit the panic button. After the first week (of two) of early voting, the Republicans have increased their lead for the sixth straight day. Statewide, Republicans leady by 10,270 out of 109,773 early votes, and 2518 our of 23,447 absentee ballots returned, for a total lead of 12,788 out of 133,220 votes cast so far, not including seven rural counties that are heavily Republican who have not reported their Friday numbers. The voter lead for Republicans of 10% if 15% above their statewide registration deficit. In 2012, Democrats had a lead in combined early voters of 15%. 11% of registered voters have cast their ballots.

     In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 3,339, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     In Clark County, Republicans continue to increase their lead to 1025 in early voters. When returned absentees are included, their lead increases to 1315. This is 15% above their voter registration deficit of 13%. At this point in 2010, Democrats led by 8% in Clark County in early voters, while in 2012 they lead by 18%. The turnout in 2014 after the 1st week is 64% of what it was in 2010.

     Of the three County Commissioner races (Seats E, F, and G — all held by Democrats), the Republicans have a early voter edge in both Disctirc F and District G. Since the Democrats have a monopoly on the Clark County Commission, holding all seven seats, so they will control the Commission after the election, even if District E was to flip.

     Perhaps most surprisingly, the Democrats are behind in early voters not just in the key state Senate races (SD8, SD9, and SD20) and the 4th Congressional District, but also in the Assembly.

     In Clark County alone, there are nine Assembly seats that the Democrats won in 2012 but are now trailing in early voters to Republicans: AD05, AD08, AD09, AD12, AD21, AD29, AD34, AD35, and AD41. Some of these leads are very narrow, ranging from ½% in AD09 to 10% in AD05. No Assembly seat in Clark County, that the Democrat won in 2012 with less than 61% of the vote, has the Democrats ahead in early voters after the first week of early voting.

     If we extrapolate that 61% dividing line to Washoe, than three of the four assembly districts that the Democrats hold would be threatened. AD27, AD30, and AD13 all went for the Democrat candidate with less than 61% of the vote, leaving only AD24 which was won by the Democrats with 68% of the vote. Though it is unlikely that the Democrats won’t regain early voter pluralities in many of these seats, as it stands now, the Republicans are leading in 12 total assembly districts that the Democrats won in 2012; this would result in the Democrats having been one seat away from a supermajority in the Assembly, to Republicans being one seat away in the Assembly. In Washoe County, which has voted for the winner in every statewide race since 1998 (When Harry Reid defeated John Ensign by less than a thousand voted), the Republicans’ lead has grown to 3,339, or 12%, in early voters and absentee ballots.

     Clark County makes up 61.3% of early and returned absentee votes so far, with Washoe being 20.7%, and the rural counties with 18.0% of the vote.

     Here are the percentages and comparison with 2008, 2010, and 2012.

Nevada (statewide)

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote* 46.3% 37.0% 16.7%
Early Vote + Absentee* 46.6% 37.0% 16.5%
Early Vote 2012 36.2% 46.1% 17.8%
Early Vote + Absentees 2012 37.2% 45.4% 17.4%
Total Early 2008 31.6% 51.8% 17.5%
Total Early 2010 40.2% 44.2% 15.7%
Total Early 2012 36.1% 44.5% 19.5%

     The * The Republican heavy rural counties of Carson City, Churchill, Douglas, Elko, Esmeralda, Lyon, and Pershing had not reported their Friday totals as of publication.

     The Republican edge in early voting and absentee ballots is about 15% above the Republicans statewide registration deficit of 5%.

Clark County Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 42.1% 40.6% 17.2%
Early Vote + Absentee 42.4% 40.8% 16.8%
Early Vote 2010 37.9% 46.4% 15.8%
Early Vote 2012 32.0% 50.6% 19.3%
Total Early 2008 30.6% 52.0% 17.4%
Total Early 2010 37.4% 46.2% 16.4%
Total Early 2012 32.2% 48.2% 19.6%

     Republican early vote lead (including absentees) is about 14% above their registration deficit of 13%.

Washoe County Home of Reno and 20% of the state’s population

GOP Dem Ind.
Early Vote 47.7% 36.6% 15.7%
Early Vote + Absentee 48.1% 36.1% 15.8%
Early Vote 2010 46.6% 39.7% 13.7%
Early Vote 2012 40.7% 42.7% 16.6%
Total Early 2008 35.3% 47.1% 17.5%
Total Early 2010 44.7% 40.3% 15.0%
Total Early 2012 39.9% 40.5% 19.5%

     To summarize: With half of early voting done, the Republicans are in an increasingly strong position to dominate. While the 2nd week of early voting tends to be heavier, giving the Democrats a chance to overcome the growing Republican voter lead, every day the Democrats do not manage to reverse this trend just makes it that much more difficult to reverse.

     Let us be reminded of the words of Virgil:

“Do not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit”
— Virgil, “The Æneid”

     Until the next update…

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