
Early voting has always been the bulk of the vote in Nevada, but unlike previous years, this primary has ballots automatically mailed out to everyone, with the option of voting early in person, while before Corona-chan (COVID) absentee ballots had to be requested. So, how does the 2nd week of early voting this primary compare to previous years?
Nevada est omnis divisa in partes tres
To reiterate from the previous post from the 1st week of early voting:
The state can be divided, as Caeser might say, into three parts: Clark County, which contains Las Vegas and 70% of the states population; Washoe County, which contains Reno and 20% of the states population; and the rural counties, which contain 10% of the states population.
Clark County leans Democratic and continues to do so. The rural counties are overwhelmingly Republican if not more conservative (hard right 3rd parties can be elected to partisan office in many rural counties).
This leaves Washoe as the “Bellwether” county which has usually in the past always gone with the statewide winner in every statewide contest in Nevada this century. However, Washoe, which has a slight Republican plurality or near parity, has been shifting, despite the registration numbers, more reliably to the Democrats.
2022 Numbers for the 2nd Week
Washoe early voter lead has gone from 20%, 11% and even in 2014, 2016, and 2018 respectively (as well as a near even slight Democratic lead overall in 2020), to a slight near even GOP lead of less than 1% in the 2nd week of the 2022 primary. Washoe continues to underperform compared to previous year and this is consistent with Washoe becoming more friendly to Democrats despite a nominal GOP voter registration edge.
In contrast, the 2nd week for Republicans in Clark County is better, with a deficit of nine thousand votes or about 6% lead for the Democrats. The Democrats’ lead in 2016 and 2018 in the 2nd week was 10% and 16% respectively, while in 2014 the Republicans actually had a 7% lead in a primary with disastrous turn-out for the Democrats where “None of these candidates” won the plurality of votes for the Democratic nomination for Governor.
Statewide, the GOP had a slight lead statewide of just under 1%. The total GOP turnout lead is about six thousand votes. The ratio of mail ballots returned to in person voting did increase slightly, as would be expected with ballots arriving shortly before the end of voting. Overall, the GOP is doing better than it did at this point than they did in 2018 or 2020, and perhaps comparable to 2016.
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