It’s hard to compare 2020 with the current one because it occurred during the Covid lockdowns, and I am hesitant to draw comparisons between 2020 and 2024. 2022 used the same new way of voting as is being used now. While the raw numbers are a poor comparison, the relative percentages can show, between the two parties, which is doing better and which is doing worse.
With the first week of early voting over in Nevada, the GOP has a total voter lead of ca 6.2%. In ’22 after the first week of early voting, the Democrats had a lead of ca 3.1%. All but two rural counties have turnout above ca 30% so far, with Nye County reporting ca 42% turnout! The in person early vote to mail ballot vote is close to 5:6. Democrats still lead Clark County, but by only 5972 votes. The GOP has a lead in Washoe County by 4306. With the rurals being a GOP blowout, the Nevada GOP has a statewide lead of 29,142.
The GOP’s lead with in person early voting is at ca 24.6% compared with ca 18.7% at this point two years ago. The Dems mail ballot lead (which includes ballots dropped off at early voting sites) is only ca 10.0%, down from ca 16.9% at this point two years ago. #NVpol
Clearly, Nevada Republicans have gotten over their allergy to early voting. However, their in person and mail percentage of the total vote of ca 51.3% and ca 31.3%, respectively, is only a slight improvement over 2022 percentages of ca 50.3% and ca 29.9%, respectively.
The dearth of Democratic turnout, especially in Clark County, combined with decent turnout for non-partisan and 3rd Party voters is a bad sign for the once vaunted Harry Reid Machine. They need the numbers to massively improve during the rest of early voting and/or do ahistorically well on Election Day. There is no evidence to suggest that that is likely.
The Democrats in Nevada should be hitting the panic button over their anemic turnout. Yes, the GOP’s election day turnout may end up smaller, but with the very early mail ballots being so low, they can’t count on the late arriving mail ballots to save even than. The Dems in Clark county may have been caught flatfooted, but they still have the resources to cajole plenty more ballots, if the voters are just reluctantly there. This can not be chalked up to just GOP transplants from California moving to Nevada.
The questions for Nevada Dems are these: Can they get enough mail ballots in the final stretch to make up the difference and if the GOP exhausts their pool of voters early enough to blunt their traditional Election Day vote bump?
The low relative turnout for the Democrats in Clark county may not only mean its possible Sam Brown might be dragged over the finish line in the U.S. Senate race, but the GOP could hypothetically pick up a Congressional seat or two, and even with a Commissioner race for the first time since 2004.
The GOP is ahead in at least four Democratic held Assembly seats in Clark County, which would pull them out of the supermajority, and two state Senate seats (though they’ll likely lose one in Washoe).
The question is how the independents in Nevada tilt and how hard. If the GOP wins independents & 3rd parties by 20+ points, they could win the Assembly and be only one short in the state Senate. GOP leads voters so far in 2 of the 3 swing state Senate seats up on 2026 (all held by Democrats).
Even if 2026 turns out to be midterm bloodbath for Republicans in Nevada, they’ll have a shot at picking up the state Senate by winning 1 or 2 of the three swing seats (all held by Democrats). Having a GOP Governor who won in ’22 helps as well.
The excellent numbers for the GOP in Nevada’s early voting is likely less about anything the GOP is doing right and more about the once vaunted Reid Machine finally fraying and entering its death throes phase.
