The sign you shouldn’t make me tap.
Of all the elections for decades that your humble author has experienced, this one feels different. Perhaps we’re on the verge of some epochal political realignment, or perhaps the irrational has just drowned out the sensible. Either which way, there has been no clear evidence in prior actual election results, so what will happen is not as clear as many are making out out to be. Many will be right not because the reasoning behind their predictions was right, but despite said reasoning—much like continental drift.
However, there are at least a few things that are likely to be true after election day:
- Both sides will misinterpret the election outcome;
- Whoever wins will likely overplay their hand and overreach bigly; and
- Whoever loses will likely be in a strong position in 2026 and 2028 (though they’ll be more likely to screw that up somehow).
But beyond that, making predictions based on past results is iffy at best. Is an orgy of black swans event upon us—one so great that it is making 2016 seem a continuation of normal when it comes to Presidential elections? Or is this just a combination of the irrational exuberance (or dismay) from an echo chamber divorced from a silent majority? One thing, though, seems certain: Something is different this year.
Perhaps one of the almost unsettling differences is that it seems that for most people, the election is a non-event. Most people just aren’t talking about it Oh, this isn’t just low information voters and “normies” not being engaged until Summer if over, but an almost complete lack of any outward acknowledgement that a contentious major election is upon us. It seems that to the terminally online and professional pundit class, the election is in hyperdrive and everyone is bursting with political energy. There is an increased energy overall in this election, but it is coming from an exponentially increased fervor from a logarithmically decreasing number of voices, leaving more and more people sick and tired before the election season even began! How much of polling is being affected by these voters refusing to engage at all, including with pollsters, to a degree far greater than in past elections to a degree that makes this election seem “off” as a result?
Perhaps all that most are seeing politically are the ardent few shadow puppeteers in Plato’s cave, and not the great many disengaged from any such shenanigans.
It seems, then, that perhaps for most people there isn’t much to discuss. Both candidates are known quantities. Those known quantities, for many median voters, are negative. This is the rise of the “double haters” who dislike both Biden and Trump. This is like 2016, except on mango flavored crack in its intensity. While many of these voters might just stay home or skip the Presidential line on the ballot—as one has seen before—a critical number will end up going out to vote against the second worst candidate. Increasingly, this isn’t a Presidential campaign to win, but a game of chicken to see which side can get as low as possible and still only be the second worst choice of the two.
Neither side can win, but either could easily lose. Again, much like in 2016, but not only worse, but unsettlingly different as well. Multiple felony convictions and an acerbic personality that thrills some but turns off most, just as it did in 2020, should mean that despite the poor economy, Biden and the Democrats should be able to do well like they did in 2022 when the economy was also bad and inflation even worse. Biden being one derp away from attaining the status of vegetable in addition to a poor economy (real or perceived, depending on who you are) should mean a GOP nominee should be far more ahead than Trump has been for most of this past year. Many people who don’t want Biden just want a solid alternative, but instead are being given a Hobson’s choice with Trump.
And sometimes people, when faced one too many times with a Hobson’s choice will tell Hobson what anatomically impossible thing he can do with his horse before walking away. It’s happened before, as it did in 2016, and ‘twould be folly to dismiss the possibility that it could happen again.
To a large degree, Trump has been silent for most people. With being kicked off of many social media platforms and the general tuning out of the election, Trump’s major negative has been muted. Trump ought to be favored to win in November, and at this point most likely is the favored candidate to win. While early good polling vis-à-vis this point four and eight years ago is bandied about as the sole reason to declare Trump inevitable come November, one must ask why this election is showing in the polls Trump ahead of not only Biden but also running ahead of other Republicans, most notably the GOP Senate nominees. This is a stark difference with many actual electoral results where Republicans, especially non-Trumpy Republicans ran ahead of Trump and even Trumpy Republicans.
People are clamoring for Republicans who can just act normal. In both Georgia and Nevada in 2022, non-Trumpy Republicans won while those acted more like Trump or otherwise had baggage like Trump lost. Whatever ability or luck Trump has while being Trump is clearly not transferable to other Republicans in election outcomes we’ve actually seen.
Perhaps, if those polls are true and accurate through November, we are indeed seeing a realignment of the parties, with something that hasn’t shown itself in even recent elections happening to bring people over the edge and take the plunge. What is the straw the broke the camels back? Is the bad economy that people put up with to blunt GOP gains in 2022 just gone to incrementally too far? Has high prices that people again put up with in 2022 just too much for too long despite inflation and the rise in prices being not as great now? Perhaps it is people hearing about wokeness and drag queen story hour just one too many times? All of this and more is possible, but it is odd that many whop have declared Trump’s inevitability based on pre-Summer polling are silent as to why things have suddenly become different. Of course, the Republicans were overly bullish in 2022, and their irrational exuberance got the best of them.
One major wrinkle is that while on average Trump has been polling better than Biden and even better by often wide margins, the polls themselves have been all over the place—schizo even. Clearly there is going to be a lot of pollsters with egg on their face come November. But those bad polls are skewing the average. In which direction, one may ask? That’s a good question that will answered after November 5th, at least.
Another unexpected polling observation is Trump doing even better than other Republicans in the same poll compared to their respective Democratic opponents. Clearly, if these polls are true, then down-ballot, a 2022 level result is being indicated, with the top of the ticket being an outlier shaped by the black swans of a felonious Trump and frail mumbling Biden. Indeed, it is folly to make overstated claims regarding the overarching state of politics based off of unique election pairings seen every four years. While some may wish to make parallels with Trump winning while the rest of the GOP languishes with electoral outcomes from the late ‘60s to the end of the Cold War, the similarity would be only superficially similar, and not explained by recent actual election results.
What polling vs. actual election outcomes we have this year are the GOP Presidential primaries. While in the past people have pointed to Trump polling worse than he actually did, the polling for the primaries in many cases overstated Trumps final result. And though Trump did great in the primaries compared as a de jure non-Presidential incumbent candidates against primary opponents, he did very poorly as the de facto GOP incumbent nominee… in some cases as bad as or even worse than George H. W. Bush did in 1992. While it obviously true that Trump wasn’t the current President, he can’t be compared to non-sitting Presidents who have run in modern times who had never consolidated internal Republican party control. Indeed, Trump never gave up that control and ran yet again for President with a firmer control of the party apparatus and right-leaning media that even de jure incumbent Presidential office holders hadn’t achieved. One may, in an attempt to minimized those results, point out to protest votes against Biden reaching into the double digits, or of past incumbents also getting protest votes, but there is a difference: As past electoral results have shown, there is a sizable number of Republicans who will vote Republican but won’t vote for Trump, or at least would really rather have had the opportunity to vote for someone other than Trump come November.
Trumps support is deep, but narrow; Trumps success is directly proportional to his Democratic opponents failings and failures. Even if Trump is favored to win, the Democrats still have advantages which could limit their losses and help many down ticket races win. While Republicans saw a sudden influx of cash after Trump’s convictions, the Democrats had an early cash lead both at the top of the ticket, and down ticket quite often as well. The actual Republican establishment is laser focused on Trump above all else, even down-ticket success, which could further help Democrats.
With all the “double-haters” and what appears to be a generally uninterested electorate, turnout operations and the ground game will be important. Even if it is only at the margins, those margins do and can matter in the broader election up and down the ballot. The Democrats in many places, such as Nevada, have solid turnout operations and have become experts on ballot harvesting and banking the early vote. This allows them to then expend their time and energy on winning over more marginal voters, or at least depress the turnout of the Republicans. In contrast, Republicans in man of these same states are practically non-existent, especially in cases where the state party leadership has devolved into a Trump-fan club with the fewer involved being hidden by the increased prominence of the concomitantly exacerable and irrationally exuberant few. What money may come in and what ground game initiatives may come of it for the Republicans in many place could very well turn out to be too little too late.
Even if Trump ends up maintaining his advantage through election day, this does not mean such a results was inevitable, even now. Remember that sign you were told not to make get tapped? There’s really no reason that more unpredictable “events, my dear boy, events” will change things up drastically—in either direction. Even though it seems that opinions are set in stone, with neither multiple felony convictions on Trump’s part nor Biden’s feeble incoherence at the Presidential debate being a self-inflicted knockout, there may very well be far more that will end up swaying those double-haters to either stay home or vote against the second worse candidate.
With most people seeming to lack all conviction while excitable few are full of passionate intensity, perhaps we should ponder what slouching rough beast’s hour has come round this election year?
